🚨 BREAKING

🇺🇸 THE FED WILL OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCE ITS INTEREST RATE DECISION TODAY AT 2 PM ET!

IF RATE < 3.50% → MARKET GOES PARABOLIC
IF RATE = 3.75% → MARKET STAYS FLAT
IF RATE > 4.00% → MARKET DUMPS HARD

ALL EYES ON THE RELEASE 👀 pic.twitter.com/dPG2iTs5fy

— 0xNobler (@CryptoNobler) June 17, 2026

BTW - His answer to inflation is going to be to change the way they calculate it.......

Quote:

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Inflation hit its highest level in three years last month, according to fresh data released this week but new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh wants the central bank to focus on different measures.

"The measures I prefer are looking at things that are called trimmed averages," he said during his confirmation hearing in April. "What I'm most interested in is what's the underlying inflation rate, not what's the one-time change in prices because of a change in geopolitics or a change in beef."

Those "trimmed-mean averages" are alternative inflation gauges released by regional Fed banks that can give investors and policymakers a better sense of inflation's breadth and direction.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/11/economy/inflation-kevin-warsh-federal-reserve

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Quote:

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The Fed's New Leader Thinks Inflation Could Use a Trim

Speaking to senators at his confirmation hearing in April, Kevin Warsh dissed the Fed's favored inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. He said he wanted to create an inflation measure using a "billion prices" collected from the private sector. He also wants the new measure to use a "trimmed average" of prices instead of the traditional PCE

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wants to shift the Fed's focus from its favored inflation gauge in favor of a "trimmed average" when analyzing inflation trends.
• Trimmed averages discard prices that rise or fall too much in a given month.
• A researcher who helped develop the measure said it's useful for policymakers to help understand trends, but it might not be useful for central banks communicating with the public.

https://www.investopedia.com/the-feds-new-leader-thinks-inflation-statistics-could-use-a-trim-11991329

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Lol, if you don't like what the scorecard says, change the way it's calculated.

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"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain)

The board is not on the side of cuts. prepare your anus.

MemphisAg1 said:

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Lol, if you don't like what the scorecard says, change the way it's calculated.

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I agree with the sentiment but holding on to PCE for the sake of posterity is silly given the tools we have today.

He's opining on something like Truflation which is a much better tool than PCE both in terms of accuracy and timing.

Modernizing the Fed is not a terrible thing (other than the overarching theme that the Fed is a terrible thing )

Sims said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Lol, if you don't like what the scorecard says, change the way it's calculated.

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I agree with the sentiment but holding on to PCE for the sake of posterity is silly given the tools we have today.

He's opining on something like Truflation which is a much better tool than PCE both in terms of accuracy and timing.

Modernizing the Fed is not a terrible thing (other than the overarching theme that the Fed is a terrible thing )

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I like something like the all-in CPI and the core CPI. Both are important. One helps you understand what the consumer is feeling real-time without any adjustments, and the other helps understand what's going on with items that are not as volatile as energy, food, etc.

They already solved this puzzle some time ago. Reinventing the wheel isn't going to change anything. What's missing in our inflation battle isn't a set of good diagnostic tools... it's the political will to confront our runaway spending and printing of US dollars to support it.

BTKAG97 said:

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Quote:

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IF RATE < 3.50% MARKET GOES PARABOLIC
IF RATE = 3.75% MARKET STAYS FLAT
IF RATE > 4.00% MARKET DUMPS HARD

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Would be nice if traders didn't act like teenage girls over half a percentage.*

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*unless their overreaction rives the market up.

The FED follows the bond market no matter who's in charge.

I could be wrong but I think he's describing changes in aggregation methodology and sourcing more so than changes to the basket of goods (so to speak). I realize he said billions which is obviously a change (expansion) to the basket but I'd argue that Warsh's direction still agrees thematically with things like cpi, core, super core, pce etc. He's just modernizing it and staying consistent with the lineage of the tool.

You're right though, who cares if we can't stop spending like idiots. I could make the tool with crayons...up and to the right then straight down.

They will not raise rates today. Inflation could be double digits and they won't raise it. Trump would have a stroke.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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The FED follows the bond market no matter who's in charge.

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So abolish the Fed seems the most appropriate answer. I am good with that.

I think we see rate decreases next year. Coming in and lowering the rate now is bad optics since every Dem claimed he was hired to do just that.

So keep it flat for the minute, and then once we are past the war and oil comes down for longer than a week or 2, then you can start to justify reductions.

Drop the rate to 1.776% on July 4th and say it will hold there until end of year to celebrate our 250th.

Other posters said the rates are set by the bond market so really there is no decision for the Fed to make.

Sid Farkas said:

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BTKAG97 said:

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Quote:

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IF RATE < 3.50% MARKET GOES PARABOLIC
IF RATE = 3.75% MARKET STAYS FLAT
IF RATE > 4.00% MARKET DUMPS HARD

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Would be nice if traders didn't act like teenage girls over half a percentage.*

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*unless their overreaction rives the market up.

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The irony is the Fed was created to prevent sharp peaks and troughs in the economy. The reality is it shifted those peaks and troughs from banks to wallstreet.

AgLiving06 said:

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I think we see rate decreases next year. Coming in and lowering the rate now is bad optics since every Dem claimed he was hired to do just that.

So keep it flat for the minute, and then once we are past the war and oil comes down for longer than a week or 2, then you can start to justify reductions.

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With our current national debt and ongoing annual deficits of 6% to 7% that keep piling on debt, the bond market will set the pace for interest rates, not the Fed. Might see some short-term movements downward, but very hard to see anything other than an upward trend long term.

We are already spending more than $1 Trillion per year in interest alone on the debt. Let that sink in for a moment... $1Trillion simply on interest. And our debt is growing exponentially because we keep spending more than we take in tax revenue.

The bond market will demand higher risk premiums because of that. And that will increase our interest payments. Which will increase our deficit. Which will increase the risk premium again... and so on. It's a circular reinforcing model.

Absent major reform in the very near future, the die is already cast, and it's an ugly picture. Higher interest rates, higher inflation, higher taxes, lower economic activity. You can see the hurricane coming in the charts below, yet we sit here and whistle past the graveyard on a sunny day as if it will always be a party on Wall Street.

Everything I've seen is that there's expectation of no change today. One of the big things analysts are watching is the guidance and overall transparency of the debate within the room. Warsh was not a big fan of the dot plots which were visual representation indicating where each of the Fed governors believed rates should be.

BTKAG97 said:

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Sid Farkas said:

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BTKAG97 said:

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Quote:

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IF RATE < 3.50% MARKET GOES PARABOLIC
IF RATE = 3.75% MARKET STAYS FLAT
IF RATE > 4.00% MARKET DUMPS HARD

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Would be nice if traders didn't act like teenage girls over half a percentage.*

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*unless their overreaction rives the market up.

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The irony is the Fed was created to prevent sharp peaks and troughs in the economy. The reality is it shifted those peaks and troughs from banks to wallstreet.

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Corporations use leverage, of course equity markets are going to be more volatile than the companies providing the leverage.

That said, Hayek was right.......

Rates hold at 3.5 to 3.75. Unanimous.

9 members see rate increase this year, 9 see flat or cuts.

Fed projecting yearly inflation above 3%, up from March prediction. GDP projection revised down by 1/10.

Interest on the debt is now second largest expense behind SS, which was $1.6 trillion last year.

And go take a look at yields right now. The 10 year is hovering near 20 year highs! The cost of debt is going even higher.

Winter is coming!

MemphisAg1 said:

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Sims said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Lol, if you don't like what the scorecard says, change the way it's calculated.

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I agree with the sentiment but holding on to PCE for the sake of posterity is silly given the tools we have today.

He's opining on something like Truflation which is a much better tool than PCE both in terms of accuracy and timing.

Modernizing the Fed is not a terrible thing (other than the overarching theme that the Fed is a terrible thing )

---

I like something like the all-in CPI and the core CPI. Both are important. One helps you understand what the consumer is feeling real-time without any adjustments, and the other helps understand what's going on with items that are not as volatile as energy, food, etc.

They already solved this puzzle some time ago. Reinventing the wheel isn't going to change anything. What's missing in our inflation battle isn't a set of good diagnostic tools... it's the political will to confront our runaway spending and printing of US dollars to support it.

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Yep. Fed interest rate moves are theater at this point. They mean nothing other than to fool the masses they are doing something. Quarter point moves do nothing other than to address the biz media prognosticators until the next time they meet to determine if they move another quarter point or not.

Warsh announcing 5 new task forces:

1. Fed Communications
2. Balance Sheet Policy
3. Data / Information Sources and Data Gathering
4. Productivity / Employment / AI
5. Inflation Frameworks

Made up of both subject matter experts within the Fed and outside experts.

ErnestEndeavor said:

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Warsh announcing 5 new task forces:

1. Fed Communications
2. Balance Sheet Policy
3. Data / Information Sources and Data Gathering
4. Productivity / Employment / AI
5. Inflation Frameworks

Made up of both subject matter experts within the Fed and outside experts.

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Warsh (paraphrasing) - Inflation is a choice, this committee is speaking unambiguously today, we have decided we are going to deliver on that.

Also saying he does not believe the Fed should be providing forward guidance.

Something about the way Warsh speaks makes my skin crawl. Speaks like a politician.

ErnestEndeavor said:

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Warsh announcing 5 new task forces:

1. Fed Communications
2. Balance Sheet Policy
3. Data / Information Sources and Data Gathering
4. Productivity / Employment / AI
5. Inflation Frameworks

Made up of both subject matter experts within the Fed and outside experts.

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1. The Fed has gravitated to mostly over communicating. I've heard Walsh wants to roll this back.
2. Warsh has indicated he wants to decrease the balance sheet. I wonder what timing is being contemplated and how much Lorie Logan will weigh in on this given her background.
3. Clearly labor data has been a challenge for quite some time with BLS revisions, etc. Not sure how they can meaningfully change this.
4. Outside expertise would seem to be invaluable on potential/likely productivity gains from AI.
5. Wonder if this means the 2% target will be softened or modified.

How long before Trump starts calling Warsh "Low IQ"? First PC and rates up significantly. Can't be what Trump was envisioning.

vette said:

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How long before Trump starts calling Warsh "Low IQ"? First PC and rates up significantly. Can't be what Trump was envisioning.

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Why?

Logos Stick said:

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Winter is coming!

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BREAKING: The Dow is now down -800 points since the Fed decision was released.

The S&P 500 has erased -$1.2 trillion in market cap in under 2 hours. pic.twitter.com/a26ogFKgL4

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 17, 2026

Its here......We are going to need a new Fed Chair.

The statement and the press conference made it abundantly clear he considers inflation to be an issue and the entire fed is unified in their agreement that the Fed is going to have to enact policies as best they can to get it knocked down.

The stock markets hate hawkish Fed policy.

Either they print more money than they ever have and lower rates to 0 within the next 12 months thereby destroying the economic future of this Country for generation to come, or we are going to see one of the greatest financial corrections known to man very, very soon.

Praying for America!

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Winter is coming!

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BREAKING: The Dow is now down -800 points since the Fed decision was released.

The S&P 500 has erased -$1.2 trillion in market cap in under 2 hours. pic.twitter.com/a26ogFKgL4

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 17, 2026

Its here......We are going to need a new Fed Chair.

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Oh calamity, the dow has never gone down 1.5% before.

Sid Farkas said:

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The board is not on the side of cuts. prepare your anus.

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For a good, old fashioned Rogering. Cheerio!

Fire the Fed Chairman.