Ag with kids said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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Gigem314 said:

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EFR said:

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There is a significant difference between "no ballistic missiles" and "fewer ballistic missiles".

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So you were fine with previous policies of keeping their weapons/military capabilities unchecked and having no idea how much/little they had, but taking out a significant amount of them in addition to infrastructure is just a complete a failure and not good enough. Got it.

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That's definitely better than before.

Still a long way from Trump's own words of:

Quote:

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In March, Trump posted that there would be "no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!".

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Unless "unconditional" has a different definition to Trump now than it did then.

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I'll agree that we're a far way from unconditional surrender.

However, that sounds like classic Trump when he's dealing. Give a totally over-the-top first offer, so he has room to negotiate...

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Then no politician can be held to account with that much leeway.

All any politician going forward will have to say is, "I didn't lie to you. I didn't not know WTF I was doing. I gave up. Nope, I was just negotiating."

Reminds me of the saying, "Losers make excuses, winners find a way," but instead of excuses, we'll use the word negotiation tactic.

Still, we can call it what it we want, it doesn't take away what was said, over and over and over and over, and to non-maga, when someone is talking along the "promise made" way of speaking, then shouldn't the promise be kept?

We kicked their ass. Just stop

It's certainly better in that our president isn't anti-American like Hussein is. Too bad that ****stain doesn't go be their ayatollah.

EFR said:

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Maybe read the article you posted? It was cash that settled a decades old dispute over an old arms deal.

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That money never belonged to the Islamic country of Iran. Hussein wants them to have nukes so he gave them money to develop them.

TXaggiesTX said:

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If there is ever a war in which our president and many top members of congress are assassinated, our economy is left in complete shambles, multiple bombs were dropped on American soil with no repercussions, we gained no territory, and we inflicted for all intents and purposes, 0 damage on our enemy - I will be the first to admit that we lost.

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This is a good post to use to discuss this topic.

As in almost every conflict we've been involved with since the end of WWII our military has inflicted massive damage on the enemy and we have tactically won almost every engagement. The enemy celebrated hitting one of our jets and the few casualties caused with what amounts to indirect fire on our assets, we obliterated their military assets and decapitated the regime leadership with deadly efficiency. There is no question that the military objectives were met.

HOWEVER

Also like in almost all of our conflicts since WWII these tactical victories have not led to a major strategic victory in line with the initial war aims that were presented to us. The regime remains intact, they still have their nuclear material, they now have experience in how to close the straits in practice and not just in theory. 6 months ago the Iranian navy and air force were dilapidated 3rd world forces that posed no threat to anyone, removing them from the equation is nice but doesn't solve our underlying concerns with Iran's malign influence in the region and pursuit of nuclear weapons. Have we delayed their pursuit of a bomb, perhaps, but also just as likely that this only makes their pursuit more targeted since they know gaining access to a bomb likely prevents future attacks on them.


So yes we can focus on the tactical successes of this campaign of which there are many. But the situation today in terms of our biggest concern is not radically different and we were unable to pressure the Iranians into a total capitulation on our terms which was clearly a day one goal. At the end of the day, our president needed a deal more urgently then the Iranians needed a deal, a shocking turn of events for us to have to negotiate with them on equal footing despite destroying their country. But a turn of events we've become accustomed to after also negotiating with the Taliban and handing them Afghanistan after 20 years of fighting there.

annie88 said:

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richardag said:

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Old McDonald said:

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better for iran? yes

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Please explain.

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He can't. He just hates Trump.

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Is the strait open or closed again??????

The silence is "deafening"

Hez attacked Israel again and they responded. Sabotage by Iran...again. Whole thing is a joke at this point. Hez gets to attack Israel at will but then Hormuz is shut down when Israel responds. No way for deal to happen under those conditions unless Trump totally cuts off Israel which Iran is clearly trying to do. They know Trump is desperate for this deal so they are going to push him to isolate Israel on global stage to get it.

Pretty brilliant by Iran, frankly.

Nuke Iran and Israel. No more problems

YouBet said:

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Hez attacked Israel again and they responded. Sabotage by Iran...again. Whole thing is a joke at this point. Hez gets to attack Israel at will but then Hormuz is shut down when Israel responds. No way for deal to happen under those conditions unless Trump totally cuts off Israel which Iran is clearly trying to do. They know Trump is desperate for this deal so they are going to push him to isolate Israel on global stage to get it.

Pretty brilliant by Iran, frankly.

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If the strait is closed for any period of time....Donald needs to be impeached immediately

DonHenley said:

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Nuke Iran and Israel. No more problems

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sick.

wrangler1010 said:

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YouBet said:

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Hez attacked Israel again and they responded. Sabotage by Iran...again. Whole thing is a joke at this point. Hez gets to attack Israel at will but then Hormuz is shut down when Israel responds. No way for deal to happen under those conditions unless Trump totally cuts off Israel which Iran is clearly trying to do. They know Trump is desperate for this deal so they are going to push him to isolate Israel on global stage to get it.

Pretty brilliant by Iran, frankly.

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If the strait is closed for any period of time....Donald needs to be impeached immediately

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Seems a bit much.

YouBet said:

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wrangler1010 said:

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YouBet said:

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Hez attacked Israel again and they responded. Sabotage by Iran...again. Whole thing is a joke at this point. Hez gets to attack Israel at will but then Hormuz is shut down when Israel responds. No way for deal to happen under those conditions unless Trump totally cuts off Israel which Iran is clearly trying to do. They know Trump is desperate for this deal so they are going to push him to isolate Israel on global stage to get it.

Pretty brilliant by Iran, frankly.

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If the strait is closed for any period of time....Donald needs to be impeached immediately

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Seems a bit much.

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He'd rather have Biden the vegetable.

Old McDonald said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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It's way too early to know given there is no deal yet, just a very basic agreement to keep negotiating and stop shooting.

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Use the facts that you have so far

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let's put it this way: if it were better, or even close to being better, many posters would be confidently declaring it. that the strongest argument in favor of the new one so far is "who knows? let's wait and see" should tell us all we need to know.

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Your buddies in the IRGC haven't been this weak since the day before they took over Iran. They are short on military assets, cash and their nuke program has been set back a decade or more.

Rockdoc said:

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YouBet said:

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wrangler1010 said:

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YouBet said:

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Hez attacked Israel again and they responded. Sabotage by Iran...again. Whole thing is a joke at this point. Hez gets to attack Israel at will but then Hormuz is shut down when Israel responds. No way for deal to happen under those conditions unless Trump totally cuts off Israel which Iran is clearly trying to do. They know Trump is desperate for this deal so they are going to push him to isolate Israel on global stage to get it.

Pretty brilliant by Iran, frankly.

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If the strait is closed for any period of time....Donald needs to be impeached immediately

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Seems a bit much.

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He'd rather have Biden the vegetable.

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Who wouldn't want a cabal of racist communists running the country with a cognitively compromised meat puppet as your figurehead?

YouBet said:

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Rockdoc said:

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YouBet said:

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wrangler1010 said:

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YouBet said:

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Hez attacked Israel again and they responded. Sabotage by Iran...again. Whole thing is a joke at this point. Hez gets to attack Israel at will but then Hormuz is shut down when Israel responds. No way for deal to happen under those conditions unless Trump totally cuts off Israel which Iran is clearly trying to do. They know Trump is desperate for this deal so they are going to push him to isolate Israel on global stage to get it.

Pretty brilliant by Iran, frankly.

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If the strait is closed for any period of time....Donald needs to be impeached immediately

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Seems a bit much.

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He'd rather have Biden the vegetable.

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Who wouldn't want a cabal of racist communists running the country with a cognitively compromised meat puppet as your figurehead?

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Some people hate living in a relatively free republic that lives mostly by the rule of law. They're doing all they can to destroy our cities and elections.

IMO Iran has always been a massive bear trap: tons of potential energy and destruction held ever-so-tenuously in check. Every President til now has preferred to tiptoe around it, and Iran has preferred to keep it this way. IMO Trump deserves credit for at least sending in the bomb squad to deal with the issue, even if the defusing attempt failed and we ended up just detonating instead.

The hazard and its ambiguity are now gone and now it's a patent reality that everyone must strategize around. Iran can no longer focus on tail risk aimed at Israel and the US; now every aspiring power from Turkey to France [will implement] capacity to keep Iran's mean risk in check. Even Iran's strongest supporters -- China and Russia -- will no longer be able to buy its cooperation for pennies on the dollar. This is what it looks like for the US to exit the Middle East.

Edit: two other silver linings I see in this cloud is that it made concrete 1) the age of cheap drone warfare and 2) the continued [tactical advantage] of mountain geography. Sure, the US showed some capabilities to its enemies, but it also gave the US a lot of experience countering a range of drones and ballistic missiles (that substantially overlaps with what we'd see in the Taiwan Strait). As well, Iran's ability to resist intense standoff attacks is a precedent and, perhaps, a blueprint for Taiwain to utilize its mountainous region to resist Chinese attacks.

Texas12&0 said:

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Old McDonald said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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It's way too early to know given there is no deal yet, just a very basic agreement to keep negotiating and stop shooting.

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Use the facts that you have so far

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let's put it this way: if it were better, or even close to being better, many posters would be confidently declaring it. that the strongest argument in favor of the new one so far is "who knows? let's wait and see" should tell us all we need to know.

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Your buddies in the IRGC haven't been this weak since the day before they took over Iran. They are short on military assets, cash and their nuke program has been set back a decade or more.

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says who?

2040huck said:

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Texas12&0 said:

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Old McDonald said:

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HoustonAg2106 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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It's way too early to know given there is no deal yet, just a very basic agreement to keep negotiating and stop shooting.

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Use the facts that you have so far

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let's put it this way: if it were better, or even close to being better, many posters would be confidently declaring it. that the strongest argument in favor of the new one so far is "who knows? let's wait and see" should tell us all we need to know.

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Your buddies in the IRGC haven't been this weak since the day before they took over Iran. They are short on military assets, cash and their nuke program has been set back a decade or more.

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says who?

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Common sense.

Rockdoc said:

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YouBet said:

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wrangler1010 said:

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YouBet said:

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Hez attacked Israel again and they responded. Sabotage by Iran...again. Whole thing is a joke at this point. Hez gets to attack Israel at will but then Hormuz is shut down when Israel responds. No way for deal to happen under those conditions unless Trump totally cuts off Israel which Iran is clearly trying to do. They know Trump is desperate for this deal so they are going to push him to isolate Israel on global stage to get it.

Pretty brilliant by Iran, frankly.

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If the strait is closed for any period of time....Donald needs to be impeached immediately

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Seems a bit much.

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He'd rather have Biden the vegetable.

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there are a lot better options out there for the Dems than Biden… sadly that was the only option in 2020

We were told we demolished Iran's nuke program when we bombed them last year

GAC06 said:

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We were told we demolished Iran's nuke program when we bombed them last year

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yes we were… Do you remember the term obliterated?

GAC06 said:

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We were told we demolished Iran's nuke program when we bombed them last year

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And that's true. There's dust left….or do you think they have those centrifuges fired up and running?

So we didn't need this war to stop their nuke program?

GAC06 said:

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So we didn't need this war to stop their nuke program?

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We "needed" this war because Iran retaliated by lobbing munitions at our assets and friends in the region.

wrangler1010 said:

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GAC06 said:

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We were told we demolished Iran's nuke program when we bombed them last year

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yes we were… Do you remember the term obliterated?

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Not just obliterated but the most successful operation of its kind in history!

AGHouston11 said:

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wrangler1010 said:

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GAC06 said:

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We were told we demolished Iran's nuke program when we bombed them last year

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yes we were… Do you remember the term obliterated?

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Not just obliterated but the most successful operation of its kind in history!

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Can you think of another time when a country had its nuclear enrichment facility, roughly 300 feet underground, obliterated?

We broke their nuke toys. That alone makes it worth it. They will never be permanently set back, but we did some long overdue damage. We also killed a lot of leadership. Not a bad thing to remind the next folks that they aren't untouchable. Was it some resounding, permanent change? No, but those of you wanting that need to be ready to sign up for a 20 year occupation. I'm not. I'm fine with dealing significant setbacks and then re-arming for the next time.

Texas12&0 said:

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GAC06 said:

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So we didn't need this war to stop their nuke program?

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We "needed" this war because Iran retaliated by lobbing munitions at our assets and friends in the region.

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Of course they did, how is a nation supposed to react when another nation attacks them?

EFR said:

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Texas12&0 said:

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GAC06 said:

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So we didn't need this war to stop their nuke program?

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We "needed" this war because Iran retaliated by lobbing munitions at our assets and friends in the region.

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Of course they did, how is a nation supposed to react when another nation attacks them?

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Exactly! It was about time we did as they had killed over 1,000 Americans since 1979. Bravo! Thanks for that perspective.

Fatboy Thaddeus said:

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IMO Iran has always been a massive bear trap: tons of potential energy and destruction held ever-so-tenuously in check. Every President til now has preferred to tiptoe around it, and Iran has preferred to keep it this way. IMO Trump deserves credit for at least sending in the bomb squad to deal with the issue, even if the defusing attempt failed and we ended up just detonating instead.

The hazard and its ambiguity are now gone and now it's a patent reality that everyone must strategize around. Iran can no longer focus on tail risk aimed at Israel and the US; now every aspiring power from Turkey to France [will implement] capacity to keep Iran's mean risk in check. Even Iran's strongest supporters -- China and Russia -- will no longer be able to buy its cooperation for pennies on the dollar. This is what it looks like for the US to exit the Middle East.

Edit: two other silver linings I see in this cloud is that it made concrete 1) the age of cheap drone warfare and 2) the continued [tactical advantage] of mountain geography. Sure, the US showed some capabilities to its enemies, but it also gave the US a lot of experience countering a range of drones and ballistic missiles (that substantially overlaps with what we'd see in the Taiwan Strait). As well, Iran's ability to resist intense standoff attacks is a precedent and, perhaps, a blueprint for Taiwain to utilize its mountainous region to resist Chinese attacks.

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Astute post and goes to the long-term positives that may yet spin out of this that emotion is obscuring for most on here.

Especially like the bold. I had same thought but couldn't figure out how to succinctly express it for some reason. However, the outcome of that which has been stated before is that everyone else is going to figure out how to diversify their supply chain and mitigate using Hormuz as much as possible. There will be money to be made by other GCC's who can provide that alternative and not be insane like Iranian leadership.

wrangler1010 said:

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Rockdoc said:

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YouBet said:

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wrangler1010 said:

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YouBet said:

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Hez attacked Israel again and they responded. Sabotage by Iran...again. Whole thing is a joke at this point. Hez gets to attack Israel at will but then Hormuz is shut down when Israel responds. No way for deal to happen under those conditions unless Trump totally cuts off Israel which Iran is clearly trying to do. They know Trump is desperate for this deal so they are going to push him to isolate Israel on global stage to get it.

Pretty brilliant by Iran, frankly.

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If the strait is closed for any period of time....Donald needs to be impeached immediately

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Seems a bit much.

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He'd rather have Biden the vegetable.

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there are a lot better options out there for the Dems than Biden… sadly that was the only option in 2020

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I'm curious who you think that is?

BusterAg said:

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2040huck said:

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What new advantage have we gained?

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Iran's military capabilities have been obliterated, they cannot hold the ME hostage with their ballistic missile arsenal so that they can build a nuke, and the straight is open.

So, yeah, its light-years better.

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Well said. Here's another star.

It's interesting to see folks deride invading and bogging down in Iraq for 20 years, but then want the same with Iran. Smh

Enrico Pallazzo said:

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It's interesting to see folks deride invading and bogging down in Iraq for 20 years, but then want the same with Iran. Smh

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I think you are missing the critique from most.

We obliterated Iraq's military and occupied their country with our armed forces, wrote their constitution, chose their prime minister........ and at the end of the day that country still sucks and became a haven for ISIS and other anti-American forces including Iranian aligned militias.

So even though all of that didn't work in Iraq, we decided to just obliterate Iran with an air and sea campaign in hopes that a more favorable regime would emerge despite the relatively limited scope of our involvement. We hoped that the Iranians after 50 years of hostility towards us would just give up and bend to our will.

In no way would I have ever been in favor of a long term occupation, but the insanity of hoping that the regime would just crumble from a limited air and sea campaign set the stage for disappointment from the very beginning. And in my opinion, it's a poor policy to engage with another nation state in war if you aren't willing to do what it takes to actually win. We had one foot out the door from the beginning and that fact hardened the Iranian resolve to resist.

The question this obviously poses is "what would a winning strategy look like" and my only response is that I don't know. Obviously not what we did in Iraq, and obviously not what we did this time in Iran. I am sure that Trump's TACO reputation has now undermined his ability to play the strongman role with enemies like Iran, and you have to wonder what conclusions China and Russia are drawing from our conflict with Iran about our capabilities and our resolve to fight.