In most years, a 218 is well enough for NMSF. Last year was a bit of an anomaly because the material was easier than expected. Those who created the test didn't realize how much of an advantage the DESMOS calculator actually offered to the students with the math section.

I believe you can feel good about a 218. However, it is a score that you will need wait until September of 2025 to learn if it meets the index score for Texas.

Your kid is in the exact same position my daughter was in a year ago. She is a senior now and received a 218 selection score also and the cutoff the last 2 years has been 219. Like your child she was perfect score on math and a 1470 overall score. She was the first year of the digital version and felt like it was a strange test last year based on what she and similar class mates felt. She felt like the verbal was strange. And don't even get her started on why the selection index score counts the verbal score twice and math only once.

That test has been a source of frustration and tears for her. And why there are different scores for different states is another source of frustration. Because kids with lower scores than hers in 37 states had a lower score and still have the designation. And A&M will roll out the red carpet in scholarships to these out of state students that possibly scored lower than her over an in state kid with a higher score. It is flawed. I will never understand why there is so much emphasis placed on a test that is one day out of their academic career. Rather than the overall merit of their time over 4 years of high school.

She has an amazing class rank and actual SAT score. And she says that one day she plans to make a scholarship that rewards kids that get a perfect math on PSAT and SAT that were not designated national merit semifinalists.

Just curious - why is it 2V + M for PSAT? It worked out fine for my son, but as a general rule it seems that would favor females over males. Are there data on male versus female NMS recipients, versus maybe top 1% scorers for ACT and for SAT?

https://www.compassprep.com/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/

this site has a lot of interesting data and visuals on the cutoffs. The one encouraging thing I see is the # of States w Change in Cutoffs chart that shows pretty much every year after you see a big increase in scores and cutoffs, there's typically a correction the next year where scores drop. Last year, out of 50 states, South Dakota was the only state where the cutoff went down from the previous year. 12 stayed the same and 37 increased. So hopefully this is a correction year in the other direction.