Fantasy Football Draft Talk

16,236 Views | 241 Replies | Last: 12 days ago by investorAg83
Ag_07
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AG
I wouldn't touch Pittman given Ricardson's inability to throw.

His only hope is going to be if Richardson goes down for a significant amount of time.

Even though the chance of that is pretty good I wouldn't take someone that high that's dependent on injury to his QB.
gigem1223
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Pittman still carried a high target volume with Richardson as QB last season. IMO Pittman is a high end WR2 going into this season.
amercer
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AG
I guess that sums up the range of opinions on Pittman., and explains why his ADP range from 17-41 depending on the site.

I think there is an 80% chance that Achane disappoints (regresses, hurt, less touches) and a 20% chance he wins the league for me. Pittman seems more like a 50/50 that he will have a good year.

I like lotto tickets but there is absolutely a non zero chance that CMC and Achane are both hurt by week two and I'm staring at another last place finish….
texagbeliever
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amercer said:

I guess that sums up the range of opinions on Pittman., and explains why his ADP range from 17-41 depending on the site.

I think there is an 80% chance that Achane disappoints (regresses, hurt, less touches) and a 20% chance he wins the league for me. Pittman seems more like a 50/50 that he will have a good year.

I like lotto tickets but there is absolutely a non zero chance that CMC and Achane are both hurt by week two and I'm staring at another last place finish….
If CMC goes down, you aren't going to win the league with a Pittman. You might still win the league with Achane.

In an odd way Achane, though an injury risk himself, is the "safer" pairing with a CMC.

I'd rather Lamb/Hill + Achane > CMC + Pittman. I would take CMC + Achane though.
Silvertaps
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AG
I have my 2nd draft tonight. Any tips on 10 team PPR, #6 pick?

FYI...we have no kicker, instead we have a 2nd Flex (WR/RB/TE).
EliteZags
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AG
Captain Hindsight 20/20 said:

Zachary Klement said:

Captain Hindsight 20/20 said:

boy09 said:

Zachary Klement said:

Is Achane at 16 in a ten-teamer too high?

He just went at 16 in my 12-team league. I don't think it's that crazy. RBs were flying off the board, get em while you can.
Achane went 5.8 in my 10 teamer
Was he someone's keeper? That is wayyyyyyy too late.
no I think a few guys passed due to injury concerns and he snowballed.


Completely unforgiveable for you to let him stay on the board past pick 3, baffling to imagine ppl were taking James Cooks and Rachaad Whites over him
TXAGGIES
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Silvertaps said:

I have my 2nd draft tonight. Any tips on 10 team PPR, #6 pick?

FYI...we have no kicker, instead we have a 2nd Flex (WR/RB/TE).
Man its so hard to give advice as it really depends on the nature of the draft, is there a run on RB's early etc.
That being said at 6 I would try and grab J Chase, or A St.Brown, if one of the RB's falls, grab him. on the return at 15 you should still be in that 2nd tier RB of Barkley/Gibbs. Not ideal to go RB/RB but WR's are deep. Potentially Garrett Wilson falls if the draft focuses on RB's or you could reach slightly for DeVante Adams or Marvin Harrison.
Chipotlemonger
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AG
Contrary to this, I would steer clear of Achance and Harrison in round 2 with your pick 15.

I would also target RB in round 1 and go Saquon if Bijan and Breece are both gone.

If you go WR in 1, I prefer Saquon, JT, Jacobs, and Etienne over Gibbs on the round 2 pick.
JClark97
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AG
Achane has league winning potential. I wouldn't hesitate to take if he falls to me at pick #23 in my upcoming draft. I doubt he will make it…
EliteZags
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AG
I see Achane as a 2nd rounder by 'projected EOS value' with 1st round value production for the games he stays on the field for, which the gamble being how many that ends up being but the advantage of being able to fill in for the ones he misses if you have some depth
so while he stays on the field you're essentially rolling out a 1-2 punch of duo 1st round horses
txagman1998
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AG
Regarding the "injury prone" RBs, CMC and Achane, drafting their handcuff is always a strategy to consider. The Niners put Elijah Mitchell on season ending IR, so it looks like Jordan Mason is the clear RB2 in SF and will likely go undrafted in most home leagues.

As for Achane, RB2 Mostert will likely be drafted in home leagues. However, their rookie RB Jaylen Wright, who had a good preseason, will likely not be drafted and would get some touches in weeks Achane is unavailable. Also, note that Miami has mentioned getting Achane some snaps at WR this season. Sounds like they want to ensure he gets his fair share of touches.
txagman1998
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AG
10-team ESPN Full PPR league, start QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/Flex/DST/K. My flight home from Vegas has been delayed almost and hour so I was able to draft without auto draft.

QB - Hurts, Stafford
RB - McCaffrey, Achane, Montgomery, Ford
WR - Collins, Higgins, R. Rice, Hopkins, Odunze
TE - LaPorta, Schultz
DST - Seahawks
K - Fairbairn

Went CMC 1.1 and Nico Collins and Achane at 2/3 turn (was hoping Etienne would fall but he did not). Was expecting to go WR at 4/5 turn, but felt that Hurts and LaPorta offered value at that spot (and one of my key targets, Cooper Kupp, was already off the board). Otherwise, fairly happy with the roster.

I don't normally draft a backup at QB and TE, however, both Hurts and LaPorta have Week 5 byes, so figured it would be better to get those bye weeks covered now and add RB/WR depth after the Week 5 bye when I will no longer need QB/TE backups. In Week 5 HOU hosts BUF with a 47.5 total and LAR hosts GB with a 48 total, so that is how I chose the backups.

Also, when I got down to the last 2 rounds, the ESPN app only showed DSTs and Ks, so I had to draft those positions. Seattle hosts DEN in Week 1 then is at NE in Week 2. Fairbairn kicks in a dome for HOU and does not have a bye until Week 14.
Ag_07
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AG
How do you guys see the Aiyuk deal helping or hurting Aiyuk or Samuel?

It think it actually ups the value for both of them.
texagbeliever
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Ag_07 said:

How do you guys see the Aiyuk deal helping or hurting Aiyuk or Samuel?

It think it actually ups the value for both of them.
Obviously ups the value for Aiyuk. I think it really only hurts Kittle & Pearsal
txagman1998
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AG
Also helps Purdy, who is a solid late option in 12-team and bigger leagues, as well as 2QB/Superflex leagues.
Ag_07
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AG
I think they may get back to giving Deebo some carries to take some workload off CMC and they can do that with Aiyuk there.
Captain Hindsight 20/20
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AG
txagman1998 said:

Also helps Purdy, who is a solid late option in 12-team and bigger leagues, as well as 2QB/Superflex leagues.
as someone who drafted Purdy I'm super relieved that they got a deal done. Now they need to get Trent Williams taken care of as Purdy's career numbers when Williams is out are absolutely terrible.
Captain Hindsight, Hero of the Modern Age
EliteZags
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AG
12 team non PPR

QB Burrow
RB(2) Bijan, Achane, Dobbins, Dowdle, Chubb, Irving
WR(3) Deebo, Pittman, A Cooper, JSN, Legette
1 Flex
Pitts

Niners


injury factory at RB, barely missed a lot of rookies I was targeting

took Bijan 4th over Breece (would've flipped for ppr), Achane 21st over Jacobs/Kupp/White/Mixon
JClark97
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AG
If you have an IR Spot, you can slide Chubb there immediately and pick up someone else
Chipotlemonger
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AG
Lot of maroon colored glasses with these Achane picks. Would much prefer Jacobs and Mixon over Achane.
dixichkn
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AG
Captain Hindsight 20/20 said:

Can someone rate my draft 10 team PPR had the 7th pick.

QB:Purdy
RB:Pacheco
RB:Conner
WR:Tyreek Hill
WR: DK
TE: Njoku
Flex: Devonta Smith
Flex: Tank Dell
Bench: Javonte Williams, Chase Brown, Jerome Ford, Xavier Legette, Brian Thomas Jr, Dontayvion Wicks
Like it. WR is super strong. Only hole I see is potentially Conner ar RB2 bc of his injury history, I'd have sure cuffed him with Benson. Jerome Ford may wind up being your RB2
dixichkn
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AG
Bruce Almighty said:

First time player, drafted 4th in 12 team league.

QB - Jalen Huts
RB - Joe Mixon
RB - David Montgomery
WR - CeeDee Lamb
WR - Devante Adams
WR - Rashee Rice
TE - Trey McBride
Flex - Zamir White
Flex - Jaxon Smith-Njigba

I also have Jayden Daniels as a 2nd QB. I'm not sure what I'm doing though.
Looks pretty damn solid to me. Especially for a newb
txagman1998
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AG
Quote:

Lot of maroon colored glasses with these Achane picks. Would much prefer Jacobs and Mixon over Achane.


I think it's more about how he performed last year and his efficiency in the Miami offense. Of course there is injury/regression risk. I'm willing to take that risk given the upside potential.

*By the way, I don't think there is anything wrong with getting Mixon or Jacobs at ADP.
dixichkn
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AG
#6 in a 12 team keeper league where you have to start 2 RB every week. The way the keepers are shaking out I'm thinking I'll prob wind up with Amon Ra with my first pick then I was thinking grab RB with my next two picks. But in most of my mocks I'm seeing Kelce slide down to me in the 3rd. Would y'all take him there and then just go best available RB/WR in rd 4? I know he's getting a little long in the tooth but FFS dude was a first round pick in many drafts a year ago. Has he dropped off THAT much? Is he still enough ahead of Kincaid/Engram/Pitts to justify taking him in the 3rd? Full PPR league
txagman1998
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AG
I think the problem with Kelce is twofold:

1 - The rest of the TE field (LaPorta, Kincaid, etc.) are projecting much closer to Kelce, compared to two years ago when Kelce absolutely lapped the field.

2 - The rest of KC's skill position players (Pacheco, Rice, Worthy, Brown) are the best the Chiefs have had in the post-Tyreek era. Thus, there should be more competition for touches in this offense.

Of course cost matters in this decision as well. If you can get Kelce at an ADP value, there is nothing wrong with that. But I'm not necessarily looking to draft Kelce at ADP.
W
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AG
I missed A.J. Dillon going on season-ending IR

Jacobs might get 300+ touches in a good scoring offense
txagman1998
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AG
Agreed. Also, keep an eye on his backups. Rookie Marshawn Lloyd who has been banged up in training camp, and 2nd year player Emanuel Wilson who might be RB2 in Week 1 if Lloyd is not at full health. If anything happened to Jacobs, those would be the backups unless the Packers bring in a veteran at some point this season.
dixichkn
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AG
txagman1998 said:

I think the problem with Kelce is twofold:

1 - The rest of the TE field (LaPorta, Kincaid, etc.) are projecting much closer to Kelce, compared to two years ago when Kelce absolutely lapped the field.

2 - The rest of KC's skill position players (Pacheco, Rice, Worthy, Brown) are the best the Chiefs have had in the post-Tyreek era. Thus, there should be more competition for touches in this offense.

Of course cost matters in this decision as well. If you can get Kelce at an ADP value, there is nothing wrong with that. But I'm not necessarily looking to draft Kelce at ADP.
Yeah. I'll prob hold out. Now if he falls to the 4th………
txagman1998
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AG
Chiefs offense will definitely be interesting to watch this season. In 2022, KC scored 29.2 points per game. That dropped to 21.8 in 2023. If they score about the same amount of points in 2024 as they did last season, their skill position players will be good, but not necessarily fantasy league winners. But if their scoring reverts to 2022 levels, than at last one of their skill position players is going to massively pay off their ADP, it will just be a matter of whom.
oh no
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AG
#2 pick in 12 team PPR tonight.

Assuming CMC goes #1 I'll be taking Lamb at #2 .

Am I crazy for thinking TE and QB at #23 and #26?
- based on ppr ADP rankings, it appears that Allen or Hurts and LaPorta could be available then. Possible WR/RB available at the 23-30 range would be Drake London or Josh Jacobs.. If i do go Allen or Hurts + LaPorta, then it starts getting thin at the #47 and #50 picks, especially at RB. I went RB0 in this league last year and chose.. poorly, struggling for waiver RBs and making trades all year that never panned out. The major burn was injuries to the top WRs like JJ though.
investorAg83
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AG
Yes, I think that would be crazy. And you gave the exact reason why, you experienced it last year. if you take wide receiver in the first round, I would almost always take at least one running back if not, two in round two and three. If you pass on quarterback and tight end, you can still get some studs at round 4 or 5 (Andrews, Kittle, maybe a Kincaid…TE is pretty deep this year)or even in the middle rounds but you're not gonna find a good running back at round four or five and the ones that ARE there…you have to hope they make it to you or risk taking them a little earlier than you'd like.

I went 0RB in a similar position (pick 3) and I'm stressing my RB spot. Doing it over again, I'd get an RB in round 2.
oh no
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AG
So maybe Lamb, Hurts/Allen, Jacobs at #2, 23, 26

I'm not convinced Jacobs in GB is a season long winner, but I agree I could get a McBride possibly or other decent TE in the 40s / round four / five.
Ag_07
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AG
IMO unless you play in a 2 QB league there's no reason to take a QB so early. Even if it's Allen or Hurts.
W
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AG
so the first 5 picks are:

#2, #23, #26, #47, and #50

if Achane, Etienne, or Jacobs is sitting at #23...I would take one

then perhaps start the QB or TE run at #26

the unknown is how many QB's would go between #26 and #47 (Lamar, Stroud, et al) to push down good RB/WR options to #47 and #50

if the QB or TE run begins earlier...let's say around pick #20...there might be a high end WR2 available at #26

like London, Evans, Deebo, Nico...to pair with Lamb
Silvertaps
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AG
My last draft of 3, and it's the only 12 team I'm in.

Any tips on 12 team HALF PPR, #6 pick?
 
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