Quote:
"Let solar and wind fill the gap in the day then fire up NG when needed."
"Renewables are for summer not winter. ERCOT only expects these to provide 5-7% in winter. But summer can be as much as 20-25%. "
The unintended consequence of subsidized wind and solar is every megawatt they sell is income NOT being made by a reliable source of power. That has become a very big number.
Thus coal and natural gas became unprofitable. That's why the ERCOT grid is being supplied by a 50 year old fleet of natural gas and coal plants. Most of them have been torn down.
ERCOT will be lucky to, especially in the San Antonio area to make it through the summer without interrupting large load customers. 345 KV transmission is limited to about 200 miles. City Public Service is trying to restart a shutdown 1970 power plant Braunig 3 to make it through the summer demand. ERCOT is evaluating restarting two 1960s vintage shutdown plants Braunig 1&2. I can't imagine the nightmare that must be, three decrepit units, not maintained, the experienced staff long gone.
A sustained high pressure weather system system
slowing down wind generation, combined with the high demand period 1700-2100 when it's still hot but solar has minimal output , is a real concern.