LB12Diamond said:

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Where are you getting the 300 number?

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My understanding is 100+ dead plus 160+ missing. I suspect that missing number will keep going up. Hope im as wrong as can be of course.

The missing number does not include those that were recovered.

Vetting who is really missing has been a process that takes time. So I think new ones came on as some previously missing were recovered. I have not seen the exact missing count remain stagnant; it always seems to move a little

I think you are correct. The amount of cars buried under mud and rock is staggering. The campers and RV's have no idea how many people were there, it's going to be closer to 300 which is what FEMA was estimating early on according to people I know that were there. I would love to be wrong but I think the number will continue to climb and it's not realistic at all to find everyone missing.

Credible Source said:

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I think you are correct. The amount of cars buried under mud and rock is staggering. The campers and RV's have no idea how many people were there, it's going to be closer to 300 which is what FEMA was estimating early on according to people I know that were there. I would love to be wrong but I think the number will continue to climb and it's not realistic at all to find everyone missing.

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https://instagr.am/p/DL8ci2zyj45

LB12Diamond said:

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Where are you getting the 300 number?

It's good that one camp was not in session.

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If Heart of the Hills were in session, the death toll would likely have been unthinkable. That camp was effectively completely demolished, buildings and all.

Squadron7 said:

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Credible Source said:

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I think you are correct. The amount of cars buried under mud and rock is staggering. The campers and RV's have no idea how many people were there, it's going to be closer to 300 which is what FEMA was estimating early on according to people I know that were there. I would love to be wrong but I think the number will continue to climb and it's not realistic at all to find everyone missing.

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https://instagr.am/p/DL8ci2zyj45

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when you realize that's an F-250.....

That photo boggles the mind. The amount of work it would take to remove that much rubble, rock, etc. alone, not to mention the fact that with potential bodies, you probably wouldn't want to move the rubble with large equipment, excavators, skidsteers.

I just don't know what you do in this situation.

McInnis 03 said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Credible Source said:

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I think you are correct. The amount of cars buried under mud and rock is staggering. The campers and RV's have no idea how many people were there, it's going to be closer to 300 which is what FEMA was estimating early on according to people I know that were there. I would love to be wrong but I think the number will continue to climb and it's not realistic at all to find everyone missing.

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https://instagr.am/p/DL8ci2zyj45

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when you realize that's an F-250.....

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That is uneffing believable.

Good Lord I hope there aren't people in there.

FYI...Torchy's is jumping in too

Prayers for all those that will be attending services today and in the following days.

I'm seeing a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking on social media and from the out of state media on this disaster.

Aside from the 12 years I lived in College Station (not all of that was school), the hill country is all I've ever known. Flash floods are a part of life out here. The vast majority aren't more than a minor inconvenience. In fact, they're generally welcomed and much needed to refill our aquifer, rivers, and lakes.

I wasn't around during the 1987 flood, so I'm no expert, but one of our good friends recovered one of the victims on his property, and I have heard a lot about it. What I've heard over the years was that the Pot O Gold camp cabins themselves didn't flood. Had those kids stayed put, they would have been safer.

There's obviously no one size fits all solution to emergency situations, but local wisdom has been to shelter in place, unless the building you're in has a history of flooding. 60% of flood victims die in vehicles.

I think that is important context when analyzing how folks reacted to the early moments of this disaster, not knowing how high the water would eventually get.

Sorry, I've just needed to get that off my chest.

ReelAg6 said:

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I'm seeing a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking on social media and from the out of state media on this disaster.

Aside from the 12 years I lived in College Station (not all of that was school), the hill country is all I've ever known. Flash floods are a part of life out here. The vast majority aren't more than a minor inconvenience. In fact, they're generally welcomed and much needed to refill our aquifer, rivers, and lakes.

I wasn't around during the 1987 flood, so I'm no expert, but one of our good friends recovered one of the victims on his property, and I have heard a lot about it. What I've heard over the years was that the Pot O Gold camp cabins themselves didn't flood. Had those kids stayed put, they would have been safer.

There's obviously no one size fits all solution to emergency situations, but local wisdom has been to shelter in place, unless the building your in has a history of flooding. 60% of flood victims die in vehicles.

I think that is important context when analyzing how folks reacted to the early moments of this disaster, not knowing how high the water would eventually get.

Sorry, I've just needed to get that off my chest.

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I don't think that is unique to flooding in this area. Anytime you see a disaster that is a magnitude worse than any previous iteration (500 yr flood vs 100-yr flood for example) you see a lot of people caught by doing what had always worked before, but was insufficient in the face of the new disaster. People who lived near the river that had never flooded before woke up expecting to go out and see the river flowing fast near them, but instead woke up to water flowing in their doors and windows. It short circuits a lot of the responses when your usual plan goes out the window in the first moments.

txags92 said:

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lexofer said:

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He's an old too but yeah I wouldn't be filming it either. I'd have both hands free to do what I needed to. Also shows the importance of planning what you will do in an emergency ahead of time. Trying to figure out what needs to be done in the moment when you're panicking wastes time and can result in bad decisions.

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There is tremendous value at times to looking at situations like this and learning from what other people did right or wrong. Having spent even just a few minutes thinking about how you would react in an emergency situation and talking it out with your loved ones can be incredibly calming in that moment and helpful at giving you a clear idea of what you need to get done.

I regularly read a scubadiving forum dedicated to after action evaluation of fatal incidents and near misses and had that come back to help me when my wife's autoinflator on her BC got stuck on when she was about 60 feet underwater. Having read about a similar incident recently, I was able to get to her and slow her ascent long enough while I disconnected the air hose to the auto inflator to keep her from having a runaway ascent all the way to the surface that would have been very dangerous.

In this case, the desire to run around the house gathering stuff they thought they needed almost proved fatal for them. It highlighted the need to have a flashlight available for each person, a go bag ready at all times with your vital needs in it, and a plan for how to get out of the house. It is also important to understand what are not "vital needs" when you are in a life threatening emergency. A lot of what the woman wanted to go back and get were things she could easily replace.

Horrifying video all the way around and I am glad they survived, but definitely lessons that can be learned from it.

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I think they spent the first 3-4 minutes essentially in denial and awe that this was happening. In that time period the water level outside rose a foot or two. Later on in the video it doesn't look that bad because the water level inside the house was now over a foot or two.

Credible Source said:

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lexofer said:

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Real time video of what it was like waking up in the middle of the night to find 1-2" of water in your house. Already 18"+ of water outside and rising as you can see in the 9 minute video. Can see the confusion about what to get and where to go. They ended up going to a slightly elevated porch outside and the water went up to their shoulders before it started to recede. These are the people that own the handmade outdoor furniture store between Hunt and Ingram. They've had their furniture for sale by the side of there road there for at least 3 decades so you've probably seen it if you've ever driven that way.

https://www.facebook.com/100055927324497/videos/2455145144822068

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Having learned how quickly those things go from "what the hell?", to the whole house being washed away, I would wake up screaming to get out and get to higher ground. Even if we just end up watching the water recede from there and not getting worse. I've felt that way ever since I read the texts from the McComb family years ago, and even more so after this. Get the **** out of there, grab the kids and the dog and run to high ground.

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I think the difficult part, is if you're in a house on stilts, your house is surrounded by water. If you try and leave, there is no ground to evacuate to. You're already on an island. Your only hope is it doesn't get swept away. If it does, your best bet is probably to be on the roof and hope you end up close enough to a shore as you float down river that you can jump and swim towards it. Or end up being able to grab onto a huge tree and hope it also doesn't end up floating down river.

The amount of debris and obstacles make it anything but a foolproof option, but emergency life jackets seem like a wise investment that would save lives in the worst case scenarios for living quarters in/near floodways

It's been a long time since I've read an article that made me that physically uncomfortable and tense. What a horrifying thing to experience.

Oh those poor people.

McInnis 03 said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Credible Source said:

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I think you are correct. The amount of cars buried under mud and rock is staggering. The campers and RV's have no idea how many people were there, it's going to be closer to 300 which is what FEMA was estimating early on according to people I know that were there. I would love to be wrong but I think the number will continue to climb and it's not realistic at all to find everyone missing.

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https://instagr.am/p/DL8ci2zyj45

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when you realize that's an F-250.....

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Nobody's really talking about it, but seeing the forces that were involved, I suspect that some of the recovery efforts have already been DNA rather than bodies. There has still not been a positive ID on 40% of the 9/11 victims. Now consider that this destructive force was spread over 25+ miles. And like 9/11, there are very few injured people. I don't know how many of the missing can actually be recovered. I hope I'm wrong, but there may be a very slow trickle of ID's spread over a very long time.

If that is F250 and it is buried at least 4-5 feet there is no way they will ever find everybody

I did not realize so much rock was in the flood waters

Can somebody explain to me how the truck is buried that deep and yet it looks like the men are standing on the same elevation of land before the flood Does this make sense my question that I am asking

Precious little Blake was found. So many sweet little faces. Hoping for more family members to be reunited

maddiedou said:

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If that is F250 and it is buried at least 4-5 feet there is no way they will ever find everybody

I did not realize so much rock was in the flood waters

Can somebody explain to me how the truck is buried that deep and yet it looks like the men are standing on the same elevation of land before the flood Does this make sense my question that I am asking

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Water is by far the most powerful erosional agent on the planet. When it is moving fast and in large volumes, it can scour out an unimaginable amount of soil, gravel, boulders, etc. When the water slows down, it drops it all back out. The soil and gravel that was there where they are standing initially was probably scoured out in the peak of the flood and is now somewhere 10-20 miles downstream and has been replaced with the truck and a new pile of gravel and soil from parts upstream. The gravel bars and islands in a river that size get picked up and moved around to some degree every time there is a flood, and this flood was bigger than any we have ever seen out there.

I understand that Kelly Ann has been found.

maddiedou said:

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If that is F250 and it is buried at least 4-5 feet there is no way they will ever find everybody

I did not realize so much rock was in the flood waters

Can somebody explain to me how the truck is buried that deep and yet it looks like the men are standing on the same elevation of land before the flood Does this make sense my question that I am asking

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Yeah, don't put too much thought into it. Just focus on the force of water. That much water can easily capture sediment from areas of the river and carve out large areas quickly. A large object lodges in the area and quickly gets covered. Who knows the extent of the environmental effects of moving that much sediment downstream.

txags92 basically said the same thing. Much lesser floods have moved catastrophic amounts of sediment. Our state has a huge aggregate mining lobby that doesn't like to be reminded of this.

maddiedou said:

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If that is F250 and it is buried at least 4-5 feet there is no way they will ever find everybody

I did not realize so much rock was in the flood waters

Can somebody explain to me how the truck is buried that deep and yet it looks like the men are standing on the same elevation of land before the flood Does this make sense my question that I am asking

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The level of rock surprised me as well, but really shouldn't have. Just had never thought of it before. I don't know that the riverbed or surrounding banks are the same elevation as they were previously, but if they are, or even close to it, then I'd assume the soil/rocks that were there were washed down stream and replaced with other rock from further up stream as the flooding slowed.

I am so sad and relieved to hear this. Praying they can find the rest of those girls.

Waffledynamics said:

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It's been a long time since I've read an article that made me that physically uncomfortable and tense. What a horrifying thing to experience.

Oh those poor people.

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Same for me. I felt like throwing up while I was reading it. I can't imagine that poor mother and how she will cope with what happened. Seeing that last glimpse of her two year old boy and knowing he couldn't swim, yet having to keep fighting for her and her daughter to stay alive. It has to be pure agony.

Touchless said:

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maddiedou said:

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If that is F250 and it is buried at least 4-5 feet there is no way they will ever find everybody

I did not realize so much rock was in the flood waters

Can somebody explain to me how the truck is buried that deep and yet it looks like the men are standing on the same elevation of land before the flood Does this make sense my question that I am asking

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The level of rock surprised me as well, but really shouldn't have. Just had never thought of it before. I don't know that the riverbed or surrounding banks are the same elevation as they were previously, but if they are, or even close to it, then I'd assume the soil/rocks that were there were washed down stream and replaced with other rock from further up stream as the flooding slowed.

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If you ever watch videos of flash floods coming down into the desert from the mountains out in Arizona and New Mexico, you will see relatively small scale floods moving fast can roll incredibly large boulders down the arroyo. This was WAY more water than a typical flash flood you would see out west.