Outdoors
Sponsored by

Beef Prices to Keep Rising as Brazil Supply Shrinks

4,234 Views | 53 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by lotsofhp
lotsofhp
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to javajaws • 9:12p, 1/7/26
AG
javajaws said:
96ags said:
StockHorseAg said:
I'm all for ranchers getting higher prices for their cattle but if the prices of beef keep climbing, it's going to price it's self out of the market and then there won't be any demand. When I look at the meat section at Walmart, two 16oz choice ribeye's are pushing $45. There's a lot of people struggling to put food on the table right now and they aren't walking into Walmart to buy $22 steaks and $5 a pound ground beef in my opinion.
Beef is quickly becoming a luxury good.

Data on consumer demand simply doesn't support this theory.

Beef prices as a percentage of income has been relatively stable and consumer demand has not decreased.

Sorry, but my own anecdotal evidence says otherwise as I am sure it does for others. I haven't bought a steak in who knows how long now because of the exorbitant prices. And I'm in the top 10% of earners in this country. If I wanted to buy some, I could - but I can't justify the price/value at current rates to myself. There are other things I would rather spend that money on.


I'm in the exact same boat. I used to cook steak all the time but I've completely stopped. I'll sit there and stare at that steak and price tag and I just can't bring myself to put it in the cart. It's just way too much money. I'll go get pork (which I love too).

Of course now I'm assuming pork prices will go crazy.

To the poster sharing the data, I know that data was generated by and evaluated by people much smarter than me and I'm sure they're right and I'm wrong. But the older I've gotten, the slower I am to believe what people are telling me vs what I'm watching with my own eyes.

Like I've always heard people say you don't lose any weight using artificial sweeteners vs real sugar. But when I switch from sweet tea to unsweetened tea with stevia, I lose weight every time. I know it's not what the science says, but that my honest experience that I've gained and lost weight with time and time again.

I wish it was true. I much prefer real sweet tea lol
Reply Quote
4
1 edit
HTownAg98
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to lotsofhp • 8:37a, 1/8/26
I'm in a similar situation when it comes to beef. I wait until certain items go on sale and stock up. We also eat a lot more chicken and pork, and surprisingly lamb is much more reasonable compared to beef now. Lamb t-bones are freaking delicious.
Reply Quote
1
44mAG
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BearJew13 • 11:07a, 1/8/26
AG
BearJew13 said:
I highly doubt a meaningful amount of cattle production is being lost because of this.

The number I heard is that 700 acres of cattle producing land is lost EVERY DAY in Texas alone.
Reply Quote
5
Milwaukees Best Light
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to 44mAG • 1:10p, 1/8/26
AG
44mAG said:
BearJew13 said:
I highly doubt a meaningful amount of cattle production is being lost because of this.

The number I heard is that 700 acres of cattle producing land is lost EVERY DAY in Texas alone.

Goodness! Do you have a Sara McLachlan song to play with this voiceover?
Reply Quote
1
BearJew13
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to 44mAG • 2:15p, 1/8/26
AG
44mAG said:
BearJew13 said:
I highly doubt a meaningful amount of cattle production is being lost because of this.

The number I heard is that 700 acres of cattle producing land is lost EVERY DAY in Texas alone.

Assuming you're correct, which I have no reason to believe otherwise, how much of that is attributable to land being turned into "subdivisions or ranchetts"?

Even if the 700 acres/day is largely due to rangeland being turned into residential or recreational use, I don't see how that is correlated to the price of beef. If the price of beef is high enough, it wouldn't make sense for a landowner to sell to a subdivision developer. This this seems like a completely different set of market forces determining highest and best use of land, when the vast majority of large-scale cattle operations are nowhere near Aledo or Fulshear.

I just don't see how the amount of rangeland, in Texas, is the highest correlated factor to beef prices.
Reply Quote
HTownAg98
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BearJew13 • 2:34p, 1/8/26
It doesn't matter how much land you have if it doesn't rain, and a huge chunk of the state is currently in some type of drought status. And if you look over the past several years, it's been not great, Bob. If you don't have grass, and you have all-time high cattle prices, what would you do?
https://waterdatafortexas.org/drought/drought-monitor?period=2026-01-06&areaType=state&areaName=tx
Reply Quote
3
BearJew13
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to HTownAg98 • 3:03p, 1/8/26
AG
We're saying the same thing
Reply Quote
96ags
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BearJew13 • 3:13p, 1/8/26
AG
BearJew13 said:
44mAG said:
BearJew13 said:
I highly doubt a meaningful amount of cattle production is being lost because of this.

The number I heard is that 700 acres of cattle producing land is lost EVERY DAY in Texas alone.

Assuming you're correct, which I have no reason to believe otherwise, how much of that is attributable to land being turned into "subdivisions or ranchetts"?

Even if the 700 acres/day is largely due to rangeland being turned into residential or recreational use, I don't see how that is correlated to the price of beef. If the price of beef is high enough, it wouldn't make sense for a landowner to sell to a subdivision developer. This this seems like a completely different set of market forces determining highest and best use of land, when the vast majority of large-scale cattle operations are nowhere near Aledo or Fulshear.

I just don't see how the amount of rangeland, in Texas, is the highest correlated factor to beef prices.



Where I live land is selling for $30,000 plus per acre for development. Recreation probably sells for $15-$20k. At 15-20 acres per cow, prices would have to increase 100+ fold for cattle to pay for land at those prices.

The wildlife exemption has been responsible for taking a lot of cattle out production as well.

I can personally point to 10,000 plus acres in my county alone that has come out of production in the last 15 years

It's not the only factor, but it is a significant factor.
Reply Quote
rancher1953
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
4:24p, 1/8/26
Drought is the major killer now. Here in Austin County we are still under a burn ban due to lack of rain. Only saving grace had good rains in the spring to make some hay. A few years ago, during the big drought hay meadows brunt up due to heat and lack of rain. Now hay meadows in my area are being hit hard with the pasture mealy bug and lack of rain. Im scared to think of what the hay prices may be this spring. Too high and I will be getting out of the cattle business at these prices.
Reply Quote
1
Agwinner03
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to HTownAg98 • 4:41p, 1/8/26
AG
HTownAg98 said:
I'm in a similar situation when it comes to beef. I wait until certain items go on sale and stock up. We also eat a lot more chicken and pork, and surprisingly lamb is much more reasonable compared to beef now. Lamb t-bones are freaking delicious.

+1 on the lamb t-bones. I have picking them up at Costco for $6.99 a lb and they are great. Even my kids who are super picky eaters love them.
Reply Quote
ttha_aggie_09
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Agwinner03 • 7:54p, 1/8/26
AG
I don't know what it is about Lamb but I feel like it's either phenomenal or it tastes like aoudad (terrible/inedible) - nothing in between. What's the secret to consistency? I've never made it just had it at restaurants.
Reply Quote
oklaunion
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 10:16a, 1/9/26
ttha_aggie_09 said:
I don't know what it is about Lamb but I feel like it's either phenomenal or it tastes like aoudad (terrible/inedible) - nothing in between. What's the secret to consistency? I've never made it just had it at restaurants.

Hair sheep lambs don't have the strong flavor that many wool lambs exhibit. Age makes a difference also. I suspect a lot of hoggets are passed off as lambs.
Reply Quote
Agwinner03
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 12:00p, 1/9/26
AG
ttha_aggie_09 said:
I don't know what it is about Lamb but I feel like it's either phenomenal or it tastes like aoudad (terrible/inedible) - nothing in between. What's the secret to consistency? I've never made it just had it at restaurants.

I usually cook it on a cast iron just like I would a beef steak. Salt, pepper, and a little butter. I does have a specific taste, but my family enjoys it.

I think finding a good quality source is key, just like anything else. The cuts I have been getting from Costco are always good. I have bought from HEB in the past and haven't really had good luck with them.
Reply Quote
B-1 83
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:27p, 1/9/26
AG
Quote:
The wildlife exemption has been responsible for taking a lot of cattle out production as well.

This is unfortunate since cattle can play a vital role in deer habitat management.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
Reply Quote
2
Teslag
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 12:48p, 1/9/26
AG
ttha_aggie_09 said:
I don't know what it is about Lamb but I feel like it's either phenomenal or it tastes like aoudad (terrible/inedible) - nothing in between. What's the secret to consistency? I've never made it just had it at restaurants.


But American lamb instead of Australian/new zealand. American lamb tastes more like beef and is often grain finished
Reply Quote
TarponChaser
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Teslag • 8:01p, 1/9/26
Teslag said:
ttha_aggie_09 said:
I don't know what it is about Lamb but I feel like it's either phenomenal or it tastes like aoudad (terrible/inedible) - nothing in between. What's the secret to consistency? I've never made it just had it at restaurants.


But American lamb instead of Australian/new zealand. American lamb tastes more like beef and is often grain finished


Personally, I prefer the slightly gamey flavor of grass-fed lamb.
Reply Quote
RAB87
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to StockHorseAg • 8:36p, 1/9/26
AG
StockHorseAg said:
I'm all for ranchers getting higher prices for their cattle but if the prices of beef keep climbing, it's going to price it's self out of the market and then there won't be any demand. When I look at the meat section at Walmart, two 16oz choice ribeye's are pushing $45. There's a lot of people struggling to put food on the table right now and they aren't walking into Walmart to buy $22 steaks and $5 a pound ground beef in my opinion.
Beef is quickly becoming a luxury good.
"a lot of people struggling to put food on the table". That's what happens when America funnels trillions of dollars in wealth to waste, fraud, and abuse. Hang in there. It's getting better fast.
Reply Quote
1
ToddyHill
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to StockHorseAg • 7:58a, 1/10/26
AG
Quote:
I'm all for ranchers getting higher prices for their cattle but if the prices of beef keep climbing, it's going to price it's self out of the market and then there won't be any demand. When I look at the meat section at Walmart, two 16oz choice ribeye's are pushing $45. There's a lot of people struggling to put food on the table right now and they aren't walking into Walmart to buy $22 steaks and $5 a pound ground beef in my opinion.
Beef is quickly becoming a luxury good.

I don't disagree with you. However, until the demand wanes, beef prices will continue to rise given the lack of supply.

We don't have the luxury of an HEB (we live in East Tennessee). Our WalMart is a blend of the affluent and the poorer than poor. About a year ago, our Walmart began to put prime in their meat case. I thought it was dumb, yet they've since expanded their prime offerings and also sell Wagyu.

I think it comes down to the fact we are a society of 'haves' and 'have nots.' The 'haves' are buying beef, and price does not seem to matter at this point. All in my opinion.

Reply Quote
lotsofhp
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:24a, 1/10/26
AG
I think this is something people have kind of stopped talking about but I really believe as long ad people can swipe a credit card they almost don't even look at the price.

That goes for inflation across the board. Availability of credit.
Reply Quote
Refresh
Page 2 of 2 ▼
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.