CS78 said:

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Thanks for the info. Im not a stats person but that chart seems to have some odd anomalies. Why would 25-35 year olds have such a sharp dip while 5-10 year olds have such a sharp increase? Those two should correlate better than that.

Some of the crazy large swings in the other age groups make me question the validity of the data all together. 28% change in 75-79 year olds? Almost 50% change in 50-54 year olds? My suspicion is the sample size used for these five-year estimates, is entirely too small to be reliable at all. Or neighborhoods and areas of town are inconsistently measured. How else could a 50% change be explained? They're saying 50-54 year olds doubled in five years! That has to be heavily flawed and it's not realistic.

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I fall into the last range mentioned here. I moved here with no child (except the one that is in school currently). To me, it's pretty apparent what you are seeing. Lots of folks who have the opportunity to return to Aggieland are doing it. But they are mostly like me, no school aged kids who can work from wherever. Heck there is a lot of that happening with people my age.

Charpie said:

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CS78 said:

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Thanks for the info. Im not a stats person but that chart seems to have some odd anomalies. Why would 25-35 year olds have such a sharp dip while 5-10 year olds have such a sharp increase? Those two should correlate better than that.

Some of the crazy large swings in the other age groups make me question the validity of the data all together. 28% change in 75-79 year olds? Almost 50% change in 50-54 year olds? My suspicion is the sample size used for these five-year estimates, is entirely too small to be reliable at all. Or neighborhoods and areas of town are inconsistently measured. How else could a 50% change be explained? They're saying 50-54 year olds doubled in five years! That has to be heavily flawed and it's not realistic.

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I fall into the last range mentioned here. I moved here with no child (except the one that is in school currently). To me, it's pretty apparent what you are seeing. Lots of folks who have the opportunity to return to Aggieland are doing it. But they are mostly like me, no school aged kids who can work from wherever. Heck there is a lot of that happening with people my age.

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I agree. Lots of foks returning to Mecca. But look at the 55-59yo group. Why is it down 17.5% over the same period that the 50-54 shot up 50%? They should correlate also. Thats prime early retirement age too but the numbers dont jive.

Mu guess is COVID and also that census data is a bit rough with many students (even grad students) having their hometowns count as their residence. Don't forget about the 10k+ students at Blinn and RELLIS (combined #). Many may have been local and left College Station proper back to their parents house outside the city limits etc or just went into the work force since all classes were online and they didn't have to commute.

Mr Yancy, did you make this plot? If not, could you provide a link to where you found this plot?

It is very weird. But I think what it is saying is that in 2023 20% of the 30-35 year olds it expected to see, who were 25-30 in 2018, were missing, which... well, that isn't surprising given they were probably here as graduate students or post-docs in 2018. But the other declines are hard to explain, except --- maybe that the baby boomers are getting older (and as that population bump 'passes', there is the decline in the 70 year olds). If we knew who made this plot, we'd know more about how they calculated these numbers.

Also, note the census bureau is always ~2 years behind in releasing more detailed demographic estimates, so the fact that the LLM you were using told ya that there was a 'drop' at 2024 might just be because it couldn't find estimates more recently than 2023.

metroid_84 said:

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Mr Yancy, did you make this plot? If not, could you provide a link to where you found this plot?

It is very weird. But I think what it is saying is that in 2023 20% of the 30-35 year olds it expected to see, who were 25-30 in 2018, were missing, which... well, that isn't surprising given they were probably here as graduate students or post-docs in 2018. But the other declines are hard to explain, except --- maybe that the baby boomers are getting older (and as that population bump 'passes', there is the decline in the 70 year olds). If we knew who made this plot, we'd know more about how they calculated these numbers.

Also, note the census bureau is always ~2 years behind in releasing more detailed demographic estimates, so the fact that the LLM you were using told ya that there was a 'drop' at 2024 might just be because it couldn't find estimates more recently than 2023.

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Our housing action plan report is here:

https://cdnsm5-hosted.civiclive.com/UserFiles/Servers/Server_12410832/File/Departments/CommServ/Housing-Action-Plan.pdf

Our Existing Conditions Report is here:

https://city-of-college-station-comprehensive-plan-2025-cstx.hub.arcgis.com/pages/existing-conditions

Bob Yancy said:

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That last graph should speak volumes.

The numbers posted don't lie.

I know for a fact that Mumford selects who they want, and rejects who they want. We have several friends who live in Hearne. Many of whom applied to have their kids go to Mumford. It has nothing to do with being "open". It's not "open" of you get to turn certain kids down, in favor of others.

Maybe you need to do some practical real life research….

It just so happens that the kids with lighter skin tone got picked. The ones with darker did not.

Looks like (from the numbers posted) that Mumford knows exactly what they are doing.

Hornbeck said:

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The numbers posted don't lie.

I know for a fact that Mumford selects who they want, and rejects who they want. We have several friends who live in Hearne. Many of whom applied to have their kids go to Mumford. It has nothing to do with being "open". It's not "open" of you get to turn certain kids down, in favor of others.

Maybe you need to do some practical real life research….

It just so happens that the kids with lighter skin tone got picked. The ones with darker did not.

Looks like (from the numbers posted) that Mumford knows exactly what they are doing.

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Heck of a charge you're making. Both districts are minorities majority. There is no evidence of racism. It's truly sad to see someone level that charge especially when the facts on the ground are the exact opposite.

techno-ag said:

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Hornbeck said:

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The numbers posted don't lie.

I know for a fact that Mumford selects who they want, and rejects who they want. We have several friends who live in Hearne. Many of whom applied to have their kids go to Mumford. It has nothing to do with being "open". It's not "open" of you get to turn certain kids down, in favor of others.

Maybe you need to do some practical real life research….

It just so happens that the kids with lighter skin tone got picked. The ones with darker did not.

Looks like (from the numbers posted) that Mumford knows exactly what they are doing.

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Heck of a charge you're making. Both districts are minorities majority. There is no evidence of racism. It's truly sad to see someone level that charge especially when the facts on the ground are the exact opposite.

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35 kids live in the Mumford district.

35

The racial demographics of Hearne, Texas, are approximately 46% African American, 26% White, and 20% Hispanic, with smaller percentages for other races and multi-racial populations.

The majority of Mumford students are from Hearne. So, one would assume that Mumford students would look the same.

I haven't accused any one of anything.

I am, however, pointing out what this looks like.

If they get to pick, then their picker sure looks sketchy. I doubt it would stand up to a lawsuit it looks so sketchy….

If you don't see that, I can't help you.

Hornbeck said:

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The racial demographics of Hearne, Texas, are approximately 46% African American, 26% White, and 20% Hispanic, with smaller percentages for other races and multi-racial populations.

The majority of Mumford students are from Hearne. So, one would assume that Mumford students would look the same.

I haven't accused any one of anything.

I am, however, pointing out what this looks like.

If they get to pick, then their picker sure looks sketchy. I doubt it would stand up to a lawsuit it looks so sketchy….

If you don't see that, I can't help you.

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Well if you're so convinced it's "sketchy" maybe you should alert the Office of Civil Rights and have them open an investigation. The past lawsuit failed because a school district can't accept on racial criteria and Mumford is not. It's a ridiculous claim when you look at the ethnic stats.

I can tell you that from what I understand most of the kids who live in district are from the large farm families out there. They're white. Also some white teachers bring their kids. In other words the vast majority of transfers are kids of color.

Let's settle the debate now folks!

Here's the transfers in / transfers out data for Mumford ISD and Hearne ISD.

Mumford ISD:
https://f5s-img.s3.amazonaws.com/000/22/43/22437a5eef3c3be0a6036cfcc6c41672ecacf615_40444_u325156.jpg

Hearne ISD:
https://f5s-img.s3.amazonaws.com/000/a3/de/a3deb078af1bfdcd88ac90cd2344ffbb99324135_46849_u325156.jpg

Both districts do have a total enrollment rate of economically disadvantaged students exceeding the state average of 62%.

I think what is being said is that if Mumford truly is open enrollment to transfers, the demographics would look similar to Hearne (someone previously posted the city demos), considering the staggering amount of students transferring in from Hearne, and they are not even close for 2 ethnicities. Hearne ISD has a large AA pop and a small white pop, while Mumford ISD has a large white pop and a small AA pop. Make of it what you will, but it's a glaring difference.

Hearne (link)



Mumford (link)



eta links

AgFan247 said:

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I think what is being said is that if Mumford truly is open enrollment to transfers, the demographics would look similar to Hearne (someone previously posted the city demos), considering the staggering amount of students transferring in from Hearne, and they are not even close for 2 ethnicities. Hearne ISD has a large AA pop and a small white pop, while Mumford ISD has a large white pop and a small AA pop. Make of it what you will, but it's a glaring difference.

Hearne (link)



Mumford (link)



eta links

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Except that in terms of actual numbers not percentages there are far fewer white kids. As has been stated there's only about 35 or 36 in district kids there. There's not a "large" white population, or any large in district population for that matter.

There's nothing nefarious going on in Mumford or in any other open enrollment district. Open enrollment is very common and is highly beneficial. Likely only a matter of time for CSISD.

Just wanted to bring this one back to the front page, This is on the agenda for the Board meeting tonight. Here is the proposed change to the policy.

Policy Link

Notice the wording regarding race. This is very typical. It highlights the ridiculousness of charging other districts with racism, as seen earlier in this thread. There is discretion allowed the superintendent but not discrimination.

Still not in favor of this. More students means more expenses and more taxes. I do not want to pay for students who do not live in the city limits.

TAMU1990 said:

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Still not in favor of this. More students means more expenses and more taxes. I do not want to pay for students who do not live in the city limits.

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More students means more money for the district. Taxes come from their home districts.

Again, Mumford picks who they want, and exclude who they want. I don't see anyone disputing this….

The friends I mentioned above? They wound up taking their kids to Gause, because as you say "they were willing to drive their kids 30 minutes", even though Mumford did not pick them.

ETA: I'm not trying to "put blame" anything, dude. I am entitled to my opinion just like you are.

Hornbeck said:

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Again, Mumford picks who they want, and exclude who they want. I don't see anyone disputing this….

The friends I mentioned above? They wound up taking their kids to Gause, because as you say "they were willing to drive their kids 30 minutes", even though Mumford did not pick them.

ETA: I'm not trying to "pin" anything, dude. I am entitled to my opinion just like you are.

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Gause only has 12 black students out of 142. It also has more white students than Mumford. I'm not sure that's the big racial gotcha you think it is.

https://schools.texastribune.org/districts/gause-isd/

If you hand pick the brightest students out of a district....

....their test scores will likely drop....


In other news, water is wet.

I don't think anyone is disputing that. People are disputing your claim that Mumford is making decisions on racial lines.

Again, one would expect that the demographics of students from Hearne transferring out would be similar to the demographics of those of the district as a whole, but clearly, that is not the case. I'm not accusing any one of anything, but it sure looks funny; nice try.

My original premise was that CSISD opening enrollment could allow for the brightest of the districts around them to leave, and those districts could experience a drop in test scores, especially if those kids are hand picked, as is the case with Mumford.



This will be my last post on this thread. PM if you want to discuss directly.

Hornbeck said:

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My original premise was that CSISD opening enrollment could allow for the brightest of the districts around them to leave, and those districts could experience a drop in test scores, especially if those kids are hand picked, as is the case with Mumford.

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Somehow I think Bryan ISD will be just fine. Lots of folks are happy where they're at over there. And who knows? Bryan may go open enrollment too. As for other districts nearby like Iola, they're already open enrollment.

Yeah, I think any further discussion on that is going to wind up needing to be on F16.