I agree that the high prices won't last forever. But I also don't believe it's going to "crash". This is nationwide musical chairs. As long as the loans are fixed rate and the buyers have funds to pay the mortgage it'll all be OK.

Now, should the labor market slack off... watch out.

I am scared pooopless about my DCAD appraisal this year.

I'm more on the Multifamily side of things, but IMO the thing up for debate is when prices MAY stabilize and for how long before continuing their hike upward. This ending with prices falling in any meaningful way or much less collapsing just (IMO) isn't going to happen - not in medium to high growth areas of Texas/the Sunbelt/the Mountain West.

The "new normal" level of interest rates will be a shock to the system for a bit, which for a short time maybe means less would-be sellers putting houses on the market, and existing listings for a time not having these folks in the buyer pool thus taking a little longer to sell...but before long, selling an existing home for one of these "crazy" prices and moving quickly to purchase a new home with a new interest rate before prices / rates get even worse will be the clear least-bad option, and on we'll go.

A shortage of new construction/inventory for the foreseeable future and a never ending stream of buyers from high-cost cities/states are much stronger upward forces on prices than rate increases are downward forces.

I'm expecting a valuation that is going to guarantee a tax increase of 10% every year for the next 5 years. Not necessarily in this particular raise, but it's going to be high enough that between now and 5 years it's going to rise to where I'm going to be maxed for the next 5 years at minimum. I've Seen 10% increases for 5 of the 7 years I've owned this house, sometimes more when they increased the underlying rate(school taxes) despite my valuation.


I can keep up with that rate for 5 years, but after that it's going to get tight. I'm mortgage free, but might be priced out of my house by 10 years if things keep going the way they're going.

I bought my house in 2015, but might be priced out of it by 2030 if things keep going the way they are headed. I paid off my house in 5 years, but I'm not optimistic about my income vs taxation. I can probably make it work, but it's going to run up my ass. I bought for 200,000 in 2015, it's 5000,000 now (estimated). Where's it going to be in 2030? 1,000,000? That would be substantially higher than my tax and insurance and mortgage when I originally bought.

My house is 1156 sq ft.

I guess the good news for me is I turn 65 in 5 years, so the tax assessemnt gets frozen.

The expected resale value of my home is now $150,000 greater than my assessed value, so I expect 10% hikes every year between now and then though.

Zillow value is $400k higher than current assessed value. This is crazy!

Enviroag02 said:

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Zillow value is $400k higher than current assessed value. This is crazy!

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Zillow is trash and admitted their valuation process was defective. I wouldn't trust that number. Our value on Zillow has fluctuated +-$300K over the last year.

Johnny04 said:

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I knew the dfw market was hot, but Celina is so far flung it surprised me. Makes sense if Frisco/NW Plano is a booming job hub.

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This article is two years old but Plano dominated in adding new office space.

https://www.commercialcafe.com/blog/small-texas-cities-that-added-the-most-office-space-since-2009/

Hood said:

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Johnny04 said:

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I knew the dfw market was hot, but Celina is so far flung it surprised me. Makes sense if Frisco/NW Plano is a booming job hub.

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This article is two years old but Plano dominated in adding new office space.

https://www.commercialcafe.com/blog/small-texas-cities-that-added-the-most-office-space-since-2009/

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Given that fact, it's weird to me that Plano is a better value than that Celina property. I'm looking at Zillow right now and see way better values between $500-600 in terms of square footage and lot size. Do people just want new build construction and tiny lots?

You can use the schools in Celina? $20k/yr * 2.5 kids vs. a more expensive house.

YouBet said:

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Enviroag02 said:

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Zillow value is $400k higher than current assessed value. This is crazy!

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Zillow is trash and admitted their valuation process was defective. I wouldn't trust that number. Our value on Zillow has fluctuated +-$300K over the last year.

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I'm aware. I didn't say it was dead on. It is an estimated value and an estimated value is what I sought short of getting an appraisal.

FincAg said:

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Lake Highlands L Streets NOT in White Rock Elementary. Remodeled 1950s home. Started at $1.2mm not yet finished and went up to $1.24mm and is now pending.

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/8634-Lockhaven-Dr_Dallas_TX_75238_M79951-30016

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So now they are going to paint it white.

$200+sq ft ask on a remodel has hit Rockwall. Granted it has a pool and RV garage but wow.

https://www.ebby.com/ListingDetails/1305-Champions-Drive-Rockwall-TX-75087/20022493

Texker said:

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$200+sq ft ask on a remodel has hit Rockwall. Granted it has a pool and RV garage but wow.

https://www.ebby.com/ListingDetails/1305-Champions-Drive-Rockwall-TX-75087/20022493

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That's a pretty house. Weird that I've gotten used to that being $500k so quickly.

Many people feel your pain and it sucks. Fixed income for many but variable high-cost tax is brutal.

However, Valuation increase does not always mean paying more. They can lower rates. I have had. My value go up and pay less. Not saying it's likely but don't lose hope.

I hate property tax.

planoaggie123 said:

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Many people feel your pain and it sucks. Fixed income for many but variable high-cost tax is brutal.

However, Valuation increase does not always mean paying more. They can lower rates. I have had. My value go up and pay less. Not saying it's likely but don't lose hope.

I hate property tax.

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Dallas lowered city portion of their property tax last year and mayor trying to do it again.

After relocating to McKinney two years ago and living in an apt my wife and I had an offer accepted on a modest newer 3 bed 2 bath. It's tough pill to swallow to offer $375k for pretty small house with small yards, but it seems it's the only way to live in a newer home in a safe part of the city. Our other options were older homes that could take a lot of work/become a money pit or to buy way further out like Van Alstyne and have a pretty long daily commute. Just a crazy market, but I'll be glad to stop having 25k a year of rent money going down the drain.

Starting to be convinced I could sell my house for $1M. Hard to not test the waters but we have no reason to move right now.

$200sqft sounds like a steal.
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/10410-Longmeadow-Dr_Dallas_TX_75238_M87408-50018

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/8811-Lockhaven-Dr_Dallas_TX_75238_M71140-86677

planoaggie123 said:

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It's the custom tile work in the kitchen + the freshly vacuumed carpet.

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Damn funny and probably true.

i checked the listing this AM and agent updated. "**Highest and Best Due, Monday, April 4th by 6 pm**"

There are unsafe parts of McKinney?

Oh hell yea. Other side of highway 5. Rough part of town always has been.

Yeah, definitely north side of McKinney east of 75 is rough. McKinney North from what I hear is a pretty rough school, unfortunately. When we were househunting we found some little houses from the 70's that someone had bought, flipped, and were selling for like over $300K and next door there's a broken down car and kids toys all over the lawn.

91AggieLawyer said:

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chick79 said:

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Buyers remorse will be coming for a lot of new homeowners in the not too distant future.

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Depends on the area and buyer. And for the most part, no.

DFW housing is not a bubble. There doesn't appear to be a slowing of demand soon. They are building in places where they'd never have dreamed of building a decade ago -- noisy areas, etc.

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I think there will be once people see property tax bills. People moving down here just don't understand the cost of that...

We're looking at buying a place in CO and the same price house there is less than half the amount of property taxes... I found a $1.3mm house in WP that's got $5k in property taxes.... that's almost $30k here!!! that's a YUGE "purchasing power" difference.

At least in the high range... it absolutely blows my mind how many people can afford a $1mm++ home down here.

Trashy neighbors doesn't necessarily mean unsafe, when we bought our M streets house plenty of cars on blocks and loud parties raged but I never felt unsafe

duck79 said:

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There are a lot of people moving to North Texas from the West Coast with cash offers. I'm curious who is buying all those homes in the West Coast because there are definitely more going than coming there.

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I've never understood this argument. I don't disagree that demand across the metroplex has absolutely exploded, and part of that explosion has been caused by the significant migration of people from out of state over the past 10 years. That said, just because people are moving from a location that has significantly higher real estate prices doesn't mean that they are somehow better off or have significantly more equity in the home they are selling prior to arriving in Dallas. It seems like people are too quick to assume that if you lived on the west coast or any other higher cost of living area, you immediately can afford more and have the wealth/assets to be able to make a cash offer. Ultimately most of the people living in those areas are levered out the wazoo (multiple mortgages) and are relying entirely on house appreciation. I will agree that the benefits of realizing appreciation on a home that is in an area that garners significantly higher prices will mean you have more for a down payment when you move to an area where the housing prices are lower, I just struggle to understand this being the main "reason" that everyone so quickly wants to point to when discussing some of the more recent housing issues in the metroplex.

Well, look at crime stats and maps of McKinney and you'll notice a pattern. Also sub for a few days at each of the McKinney HS and you'll notice a pattern. These neighborhoods I'm speaking of are a mixed bag, probably a lot of decent folks but yeah you're going to see a lot more drug use, gang activity, ex-cons and paroled sexual predators, etc. It ain't good.