Serotonin said:

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The Wonderer said:

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I agree that if Tuck has to go, we need to trade him and get some AAAers back in Suger Land. The deal for Kikuchi still rubs me the wrong way even though his stats improved once he got here - very Draytonish to raid the farm for a single arm.

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Unpopular opinion time:

We've let a lot of big time free agents walk without getting anything in return.

Unpopular Opinion #1:
If the Astros are just going to let Framber and Tucker walk then I would deal each in the offseason or next season for peak value and a prospect haul.

Unpopular Opinion #2:
On the pitching side if you are going to lose Framber then I would re-sign Kikuchi to a 3 year deal and sign JV to a one year deal of base $6-8M loaded with incentives on top.

That would give you a rotation of Hunter, Kikuchi, Blanco, Arrighetti with #5 between JV and others.

That course of action accomplishes several things:

1. Gives you a team that will be favored to win AL West next year
2. Gives you a sustainable financial situation (signing Framber and/or Tucker back us into a corner)
3. Keeps clubhouse culture with key leaders who help younger guys (Altuve, JV, Bregman)
4. Transforms the farm system overnight where we'll have a lot of exciting high impact players to watch

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I still think Bregs is gone in either of the two above scenarios. Crane won't want to pay what Boras will demand.

I'm afraid Verlander is done as a quality starting pitcher. He should ride off into the sunset.

we don't need to pay jv any more

MAS444 said:

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I'm afraid Verlander is done as a quality starting pitcher. He should ride off into the sunset.

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Maybe so, thats why you don't commit a lot of money.

But he was best pitcher in baseball in 2022 and great in 2023.

And we let Nolan walk away from Astros at age 41...it didn't work out for us.

His velocity is still upper 90s and I am not going to bet against him. He's come back from TJ and been the best pitcher in baseball. He's one of the great competitors in the sport and wants to get to 300 wins.

So sign him for $40M per year? Yeah, no way.

Less than $10M for one year? What's the risk?

Other than TexAgs thinking his value is under $10mm, is there any reason to think JV would accept that kind of offer?

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I still think Bregs is gone in either of the two above scenarios. Crane won't want to pay what Boras will demand.

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Agree. Chapman got $30M per year from the Giants and Bregman is probably better.

Crane has to make it a priority to get either Bregman or Tucker. You can't lose both.

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What's the risk?

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It's a waste of money if he can't effectively pitch any more.

htxag09 said:

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Other than TexAgs thinking his value is under $10mm, is there any reason to think JV would accept that kind of offer?

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Market value per spotrac is ~$13M but my gut says that might be a little high. Maybe I'm wrong though

For reference they have Bregs at $30M.

I think you could come up with a lower base (<$10M) deal that's highly incentivized though.

MAS444 said:

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Quote:

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What's the risk?

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It's a waste of money if he can't effectively pitch any more.

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His location was off which tells me he was in spring training mode and not ready for primetime.

You are 100% certain he's done? Are there any underlying stats that support that?

Not challenging, I'm genuinely curious here.

I think he will be a good SP next year but definitely could be wrong and open to some analysis I've missed.

You're not negotiating in a vacuum...if you think he's worth $10M then someone out there is going to offer him $11M or more at the chance he'll find it once more. You'll need to be in the $15M+ range to be competitive and we understand more than anyone that's overpaying for the production he gives you right now.

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You are 100% certain he's done? Are there any underlying stats that support that?

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No - and I hope I'm wrong. He's just old and has dealt with these injuries, which can take a toll. Even when he's been good recently, he's fallen off at the ends of the season. Just seems like he's near the end of the line to me. Again, I hope I'm wrong. I also think he's going to command more than what you;re talking about and he's just not worth it.

TulaneAg said:

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You're not negotiating in a vacuum...if you think he's worth $10M then someone out there is going to offer him $11M or more at the chance he'll find it once more. You'll need to be in the $15M+ range to be competitive and we understand more than anyone that's overpaying for the production he gives you right now.

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Yeah, if he's getting $15M offers then tip your cap and move on. I'm more bullish than most but that's way too much.

My thinking if he's getting ~$12M offers but you offer him $8M with huge performance adders and bonus incentives.

Now as MAS said, even that could be a waste of money, but this would be part of the strategy above to re-power the farm system where you deal Framber.

If you are signing Framber to a long-term deal in the 9 digits then you are definitely letting JV walk.

MAS444 said:

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You are 100% certain he's done? Are there any underlying stats that support that?

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No - and I hope I'm wrong. He's just old and has dealt with these injuries, which can take a toll. Even when he's been good recently, he's fallen off at the ends of the season. Just seems like he's near the end of the line to me. Again, I hope I'm wrong. I also think he's going to command more than what you;re talking about and he's just not worth it.

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Yeah, agree on that last point, if he's going well above my estimate then you move on.

MAS444 said:

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I'm afraid Verlander is done as a quality starting pitcher. He should ride off into the sunset.

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I think Verlander is smart enough he can figure out how to pitch differently now and be effective. But it depends on how much he wants.

Serotonin said:

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sts7049 said:

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Breggy is proven clutch when it matters. if i have to pick one to overpay it's him.

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I'd still take Tuck but I think its moot because we won't be able to afford Tuck.

He's 27 and will get a ridiculous contract from someone.

In fact I'd be open to shipping him to another team in the offseason or next season to help replenish farm system.

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IMO the non-pitcher player value on Astros is (based on batting and defense):

Tier 1 (elite, easily top 10-20 in MLB if healthy):
- Yordan and Tuck

Tier 2 (top 50 in MLB):
- Altuve and Bregman

Tier 3 (top 100):
- Yainer and Pena

I think it's pretty critical to re-sign Bregman if Tucker is walking out the door.

We'd still have a very solid lineup for the next 5 years, and if you get a couple of farm studs for Tucker then maybe we can get reinforcements down the road.

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Diaz at catcher is tier 2. Diaz at first is tier 3, for now.

They made the point on the radio that you can make Diaz a 1B but not with the way your SS throws the ball. You need an above average 1B to make up for Peña's throws.

I don't think Verlander is done. These guys are just driven differently.

Now what level of success he'll have I have no idea.

He's stated he came back from the IL too soon. To me, that's an indicator it's just some injury and not Father Time. Sure, the age thing is in his head but I think he wants to see what he's got left.

He doesn't need the money so I'm curious how he handles this decision. I do think Crane wants him to be his Nolan Ryan and be an ambassador for the Astros for as long as Crane owns the team.

Doesn't mean he can't go pitch somewhere else for a season or two but I wouldn't be shocked if Crane gives Verlander $25 million for one year with a player option if he hits so many innings.

It became apparent over the summer that Verlander wasnt going to hit his 140 innings and have that player option kick in. That leads me to believe it's not just about the money for Verlander and about still pitching at an elite level. At least as elite as a 40 year old dude can.

I think he's an outlier due to his relationship with Crane and first ballot HOFer.

Curious if he and Scherzer have had any conversations. Not that they want to go in the HOF together but more how they're viewing their age and abilities.

EDIT - If I had to wager money, I'd say Verlander is somewhere else but he's a special case for Crane I feel like. He may pay more than he should for one more year.

Furlock Bones said:

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They made the point on the radio that you can make Diaz a 1B but not with the way your SS throws the ball. You need an above average 1B to make up for Peña's throws.

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Don't agree with that take at all.

Diaz probably will never be an elite defensive 1B but he can be at least average and if he's hitting .299 with a .766 OPS then that's a big win. Especially considering a move to first probably raises his offensive ceiling to where he's a .310 hitter with 20+ bombs and an OPS in the high-700/low-800's.

I hope you're right - I'll gladly buy you beers down the street as penance if so.

Diaz is a good dilemma.

On one hand you have a top hitting catcher who plays pretty good defense and can handle a staff. His offense definitely overcomes any defensive issues.

He also has the flexibility to play first.

Crazy to think one of our best hitters is a catcher and a throw in for Myles Straw. Great move by Click.

I tend to lean trying to fill 1B with an actual first baseman as that shouldn't be terribly hard to find. At least some decent value all things considered.

Curious what the plan would have been coming into this season if Jose Abreu was never signed. That was a massive blunder.

I know he's 37 and coming off making $22 million a year but curious what Goldschmidt would go for on a one year deal.

Agree. Find a true first baseman with a little pop.

I wonder what kind of value is out there for these guys:
Luis Garcia
Javier
Urquidy
JP France

Maybe we can trade McCullers to Scott McClellan for last weeks bananas.

Milwaukees Best Light said:

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I wonder what kind of value is out there for these guys:
Luis Garcia
Javier
Urquidy
JP France

Maybe we can trade McCullers to Scott McClellan for last weeks bananas.

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Yeah, given McCullers contract he's a guy who you'd trade and pay a good chunk of the salary.

Good news is only two years left of McCullers contract.

So rolling off books soon to create $50M in cap space:
- Jose Abreu (~$20M / 2025)
- Pressly ($14M / 2025)
- McCullers ($18M / 2025, 2026)

Guys we have locked down for at least next 3-4 years:
Bats
- Yordan
- Altuve
- Yainer
- Pena

Pitchers
- Brown
- Javier
- Blanco
- Arrighetti
- France
- Hader

That's a pretty enviable spot to be in. There is a ton of talent there but I do think we need to re-sign Bregman and add a strong 1B or OF bat in the next 2-3 years.

Don't forget about Montero's $11.5 million for one more season.

Forgot about that. So $30M to play with after 2025 with another $30M to play with after 2026.

I guess technically this should go on a 2025 thread…

Tucker to Cubs for : 3B Isaac Paredes, 3B Cam Smith, and RHP Hayden Wesneski

I'm sure Bregman is next

I wonder why we traded for two third baseman?

Red Pear Realty said:

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I wonder why we traded for two third baseman?

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Allll the backups !

Need to trade for GM Dana Brown… that man is total trash!!

I was just complaining that Bregman is gone now that Tucker is officially out. All good things must come to an end.

Bregman is as good as gone. Not mad about moving Tucker but would've liked to get more for top tier talent.

Window is closing, so hopefully more moves are on the horizon to stretch it out for another couple years.

The dynasty is pretty much over, at least for a while anyway.

I don't see Bregman staying, the delta between what he wants and what the Stros have offered is too much and there is somebody out there that will get close enough to get him to walk.

I would expect a few leaner years, especially compared to what we all have grown accustomed to over the past decade.