Ag12thman said:

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agproducer said:

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From Tropical Tidbits, the GFS model takes Beryl to the Valley and the European model takes it into Mexico.

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Levi Cowan seems to think Northern Mexico or the Valley and, of course, anyone reputable is saying it will probably be midweek before they get a better idea of what might happen after the Yucatan.

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Definitely. It's going to be awhile before we really know for sure where this things is going to actually go after it gets to the Yucatan.

FancyKetchup14 said:

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jetch17 said:

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Of course we leave for Port A Friday - F me in the goat ass if it turns towards TX

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I'm not sure if this is the source material but, if so, that's a great Adam Sandler reference.

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I had a coworker that used to say this back in the 90's.

Also had a boss that would say something was "shining like a Diamond in a goat's ass". I guess that's good?

The wave behind beryl seems to be weakening, too.

FancyKetchup14 said:

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jetch17 said:

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Of course we leave for Port A Friday - F me in the goat ass if it turns towards TX

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I'm not sure if this is the source material but, if so, that's a great Adam Sandler reference.

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It's from Adam Sandler's The Goat audio skit. It's on YouTube, and it's definitely NSFW.

agproducer said:

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FancyKetchup14 said:

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jetch17 said:

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Of course we leave for Port A Friday - F me in the goat ass if it turns towards TX

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I'm not sure if this is the source material but, if so, that's a great Adam Sandler reference.

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It's from Adam Sandler's The Goat audio skit. It's on YouTube, and it's definitely NSFW.

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That's what I thought. Man, that skit had me in tears when I was like 13-14 years old.

The NHC discussions are well worth reading. These guys are some of the best in the world at their job.

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The hurricane continues to move at 280/17 kt, but there are signs
that a west-northwestward turn is beginning. A faster
west-northwestward motion should occur through mid-week due to Beryl
encountering stronger low-level flow. The hurricane is forecast to
turn more westward beyond that point due to a strengthening
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The most notable
change in the long-range guidance is that the bulk of the models is
showing a stronger ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, which keeps Beryl
considerably farther south in those solutions. This is a pretty big
change from earlier so I don't want to bite off on that evolution
just yet, and the new NHC forecast will just take a step toward the
model consensus for continuity purposes.

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That thing is pointy fellas

jetch17 said:

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FancyKetchup14 said:

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jetch17 said:

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Of course we leave for Port A Friday - F me in the goat ass if it turns towards TX

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I'm not sure if this is the source material but, if so, that's a great Adam Sandler reference.

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just hoping Beryl doesn't button-hook us

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A regular Staubach over there.

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The NHC discussions are well worth reading. These guys are some of the best in the world at their job.

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My [worthless] $0.02.

Ag83 said:

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Quote:

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The NHC discussions are well worth reading. These guys are some of the best in the world at their job.

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My [worthless] $0.02.

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I hedge myself a bit, because maybe there's another group out there that's good...but yeah, they are just excellent at their job.

That is a big shift and very good news for us, and especially you.

This is still nerve wracking because they just said the track has shifted slightly back north.

Levi Cowan said if it stays south of Jamaica there's a good chance it's s further south crossing the Yucatan and leas chance to threaten USA Tx coast.

I understand wobble… trying to differentiate that versus path when it's hard to stay connected with every NHC update.

Looking like a donut of doom right now.

Valley needs rain...

Can anyone provide clarification about the circled part? How do the models not know how strong the storm is?

Pretty self explanatory

Don't trust models that far out and it's intensifying quickly so models may not be completely accurate.

levi talked about this in the latest video. the models have so far predicted a less stronger storm than it currently is. the next runs probably update again but its not real time

Multiple things going on…

The weather dude is an Aggie and he's about as honest as they come. But, the news needs clicks and that post keeps you tuned in.

Second, models rely on past data and there isn't a lot of it for this hurricane in that spot this time of year for the models to say "ok, I've seen this before and in these conditions it's should do this and that."

Third, as it says, we cannot predict the shear that the land will cause to the storm so we have to wait until we get past that point. If it doesn't do much then storm stays strong, it moves north…the post says what the issues are.

Straight hurricane during this month? Read the room, Beryl.

Seriously, been through a few decades of this stuff. Way too early

Who is the 'weather dude' that is an Aggie?

Herzog

Yea, Herzog….his delivery needs some soothing but he's pretty good.

If you think the hurricane is going to miss Texas tell me why.

From the updates I've seen from various sites, if it's stronger when it gets to the Yucatn, it's less resistant to wind shear and has more of an ability to turn to the northwest. If it's weaker at that point, it's more susceptible to wind shear and will cruise straight into Mexico.

CAR96 said:

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Yea, Herzog….his delivery needs some soothing but he's pretty good.

If you think the hurricane is going to miss Texas tell me why.

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No one knows one way or another right now..

The current prediction according to NHC is it's in the Bay of Campeche on Saturday. There isn't reliable modeling beyond that, and even the modeling putting it in the Bay of Campeche on Saturday isn't reliable.

CAR96 said:

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Yea, Herzog….his delivery needs some soothing but he's pretty good.

If you think the hurricane is going to miss Texas tell me why.

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Just read SCW.

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We're continuing to closely watch the evolution of Hurricane Beryl, but at this time there are no indications that it will move into the central Gulf of Mexico and threaten the upper Texas coast. The most likely scenario at this time is, rather, that it tracks across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche. After that time the odds that it moves north toward Texas are increasingly low. So, for the greater Houston area, nothing much to worry about at this time.

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https://spacecityweather.com/houston-enters-july-on-a-hot-streak-also-were-not-really-concerned-about-hurricane-beryl-and-texas/

That's the result when all they hear constantly is 'Where's your latest update on the storm in the Caribbean?'.