Behind #Beryl is likely going to be 96L and it may follow a similar path. No confidence in intensity at this time and not going to speculate.

Someone needs to remind me what part of the hurricane season we are in as this is very unusual. I guess these historic warm ocean… pic.twitter.com/T7CkwfPRtN

— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) June 29, 2024

Anticipating a cat 2 now. Hopefully it doesn't build up much more strength before it starts to see that shear so it can sputter out.

Anticipating a major.

Major hurricane at the beginning of July. Yikes.

I wish we could get more forecast / discussion about HIGH pressure systems forming over the south / gulf coast states and how they should make it harder to Beryl to move north toward Texas.

I understand there are a lot of uncertainties in the tracking of the system after July 4th...but I have seen some forecasts thru Mike's Weather page about the High pressure systems pushing Beryl more towards Mexico and maybe southern Tx....you don't know for certain but the steering pressure systems play a role.

Mike thinks the system behind Beryl has more chance to enter the middle of the Gulf and threaten Florida; I think Beryl has minimal to no chance for FLORIDA but Corpus to New Orleans is not out of the risk.

HURRICANE BERYL: Basically unheard of for this early in the year. Will be a major hurricane by Monday. From there, we need to watch close into 4th of July weekend. Here are the hot off the press European model ensembles. Each line a model. I think we can confidently say *Florida… pic.twitter.com/Ho4fl412hg

— Noah Bergren (@NbergWX) June 29, 2024

Beryl is a beast already.

This is what RI (rapid intensification) looks like! In June!!!
100mph (likely higher) and counting…#Beryl pic.twitter.com/eFkTULDrdx

— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) June 30, 2024

The latest GFS track on Tropical Tidbits has Texas getting whacked by Beryl and the second storm about two days apart.

CAR96 said:

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I wish we could get more forecast / discussion about HIGH pressure systems forming over the south / gulf coast states and how they should make it harder to Beryl to move north toward Texas.

I understand there are a lot of uncertainties in the tracking of the system after July 4th...but I have seen some forecasts thru Mike's Weather page about the High pressure systems pushing Beryl more towards Mexico and maybe southern Tx....you don't know for certain but the steering pressure systems play a role.

Mike thinks the system behind Beryl has more chance to enter the middle of the Gulf and threaten Florida; I think Beryl has minimal to no chance for FLORIDA but Corpus to New Orleans is not out of the risk.

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https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=124107

What is GFS? Is it reliable? Which parts of Texas?

What is GFS? Is it reliable?

Anti-taxxer said:

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What is GFS? Is it reliable? Which parts of Texas?

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Not completely reliable, but it is the U.S. hurricane model.

Accuracy really drops after 3 days.

You can play around with the models at tropicaltidbits.com.

This morning's update had Beryl making landfall around Matagorda, then the second around Corpus.

Still, forecasts are WAY out and will likely change.

Disclaimer, I'm not a meteorologist, but asked them all kinds of questions in these situations while in news.

You said this is one of the models your job uses correct? How reliable is it generally?

Yes these are, but tbh I have not paid much money to these as I have our daily predictions because I don't generally need to look at the tropical outlook nor the Atlantic because there has not really been activity that causes alarm since I have started here. Weatherops daily started sucking about a year ago but neither of the models we use for daily predictions show anything in the gom for this storm yet. I would tend to think weatherops tropical forecasts will be a bit better than their daily. Their daily has been getting better as I've noticed since I came on watch 2 weeks ago after 5 weeks off. We have also been providing them with data to help build their model. It seems something shifted significantly in all of wx forecasts a year or more ago because it seemed like there was a significant decrease in accuracy across the board, as we have discussed here before.

agproducer said:

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Anti-taxxer said:

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What is GFS? Is it reliable? Which parts of Texas?

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Not completely reliable, but it is the U.S. hurricane model.

Accuracy really drops after 3 days.

You can play around with the models at tropicaltidbits.com.

This morning's update had Beryl making landfall around Matagorda, then the second around Corpus.

Still, forecast's are WAY out, and will likely change.

Disclaimer, I'm not a meteorologist, but asked them all kinds of questions in these situations while in news.

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the model might have that as a possibility but if you watch his analysis he states clearly there is a lot of uncertainty. i think he leans slightly more toward a hit to Yucatan

Eyewall has an update out. Current thinking is the high pressure ridge holds and steering will keep storm on more southern track after crossing the Yucatan. Better idea in next couple of days of course but that's the latest.

My brother and his wife are stuck on Saint Lucia now. He texted a photo this morning and it's still beautiful. Calm before the storm.

Gonna be a wild season. The train is starting early.

Anti-taxxer said:

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Beryl is a Cat 4 now. That escalated very quickly.

The Windward Islands are ****ed.

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Just read that on X.

I don't recall anyone predicting it would go to cat 4. Today/tomorrow forecast was for rising to cat 2 and maybe later cat 3.

First cat 4 ever in the Atlantic basin in June per the tweet I saw.

The cone is creeping in to Texas

Sea Speed said:

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The cone is creeping in to Texas

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Yeah. I have a feeling that on Wednesday as folks are ducking out of office for July 4th weekend it will be more clear who gets smacked.

Earliest Cat 4 in history is what they saying.

Sea Speed said:

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The cone is creeping in to Texas

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it's starting to get a little concerning for some of us in South Texas.

With any luck it gets sheered up in the Caribbean and turns into a rain maker. I never trust these things though.

Ag12thman said:

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Sea Speed said:

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The cone is creeping in to Texas

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it's starting to get a little concerning for some of us in South Texas.

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I'm currently 60 miles off the coast of corpus

Sea Speed said:

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Ag12thman said:

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Sea Speed said:

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The cone is creeping in to Texas

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it's starting to get a little concerning for some of us in South Texas.

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I'm currently 60 miles off the coast of corpus

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. You're further south than me. Hopefully we will all avoid this one. Thoughts and prayers to those who get hit by it, though.

Of course we leave for Port A Friday - F me in the goat ass if it turns towards TX

For US Gulf Coast residents, 12Z HWRF is pretty provocative—showing #BERYL threading through Yucatan Channel & getting into Gulf of Mexico as strong #hurricane in 5 days. Gotta watch it. pic.twitter.com/U5RGBZVzAL

— Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone) June 30, 2024