Like a jet on a runway hammering on the throttle on the engines before dumping the brakes.sts7049 said:From tropical storm to Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours.
— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) October 7, 2024
Hurricane Milton underwent simply astonishing rapid intensification. pic.twitter.com/LhwNfUIAtO
mofo just sits there and spools up, then starts moving like leeroy jenkins
*****2024 Hurricane Season*****
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Last: 13 days ago by Cromagnum
This may be similar to an Ike situation. Strong hurricane created a severe storm surge. Wind intensity decreased to a Cat 2 but by landfall it produced a Cat 4 storm surge. Wind intensity can decrease rapidly but storm surge cannot. Tampa Bay could get hit really bad.
Yes, indeed. The geographical and climatological trends of the Texas Hill Country are an important topic to the people of the Houston board who live in the humid subtropical climate of the coastal plains.
Thank God those post holes are probably dry though
Sea Speed said:
Thank God those post holes are probably dry though
We need "my projects" to be Tunisian-desert level of moisture.
Up to 180 on the last update
Goodness.Zobel said:
Up to 180 on the last update
That may be conservative based on the shrinking of the eye. Will be interesting to see what the next flight on the way in finds when it gets to the eye in another 45 minutes or so.Zobel said:
Up to 180 on the last update
Any idea on the amount of people they are trying to evacuate?
Friends in Ft. Myers said they received mandatory evac orders today, so I would assume basically all of Tampa Bay/St. Pete and coastal towns around that area.FHKChE07 said:
Any idea on the amount of people they are trying to evacuate?
So a lot
MillionsFHKChE07 said:
Any idea on the amount of people they are trying to evacuate?
Showing 10-15ft of surge in Tampa Bay now. Not good.
NHC site overloaded/crash?
Looks bad for Progreso no? Looks like they're barely south of cat 5 eye.
Gat-damnZobel said:
Up to 180 on the last update
I would be heading northwest as fast as possible until I hit about Arkansas. And I might still go farther.
We don't make many things that are designed for 180mph winds. That is almost unimaginable.
NHC site loading slowly.
gougler08 said:Friends in Ft. Myers said they received mandatory evac orders today, so I would assume basically all of Tampa Bay/St. Pete and coastal towns around that area.FHKChE07 said:
Any idea on the amount of people they are trying to evacuate?
So a lot
Good friend of mine is a surgeon in Tampa. He sent his wife and kids to Atlanta but is going to ride it out at his hospital to assist with folks who can't leave there and any victims who come in. Their home is about 250 yards off the water. At least the first floor is elevated about 6' above ground level. In Helene they never lost power but the garage flooded and everything in there was a loss and his truck flooded. This storm track looks to be much worse for them. I don't see how they don't get some real damage even though the home is fairly new construction (less than 10 years) and has a 200mph roof and storm shutters.
The roof may be fine, but a 12' storm surge will redecorate the interior.
Kind of surprised they don't have both sides of the highway open for evac.
You have to assume that Kissimme and Orlando are probably shutting down and people are moving north as well since it's right in the path and Florida isn't wide enough to really knock a storm down too much as well.gougler08 said:Friends in Ft. Myers said they received mandatory evac orders today, so I would assume basically all of Tampa Bay/St. Pete and coastal towns around that area.FHKChE07 said:
Any idea on the amount of people they are trying to evacuate?
So a lot
You can pretty much guarantee to derate the roof by 20%. Those windload calcs are for perfect materials installed perfectly, etc. and that never happens.
At best that roof will be good for ~160mph sustained. And, frankly, even if the roof is good for 200 - odds are the structure is not unless it's reinforced CMU or concrete walls.
At best that roof will be good for ~160mph sustained. And, frankly, even if the roof is good for 200 - odds are the structure is not unless it's reinforced CMU or concrete walls.
Donut of Doom
Contra flow should be in effect 72-48 hours before landfall…. Which is when?
7 pm Wed is the expected landfall
Then I'd expect that if it's not contraflow now, it's a major CF, if they are evacuating millions.
My aunt and uncle retired to Bradenton and literally have a house on the water. They're not leaving. They will very likely die.
Why won't they leave? They think God is punishing them or will save them?
There are some in every storm. People get paralyzed. It's a wild phenomenon. I think many folks convince themselves they'll be safer at home than anywhere else and can't accept the truth.
The space city weather guys have this right on The Eyewall:
"I won't bury the lede: If you're asked to evacuate in Florida, please do. If you know of anyone unable to or that is unwilling to, try to reason with them or help them where possible. We are not here to tell you what to do, so much as provide information, but I want to be very clear that if I were ordered to evacuate from this storm, I would not think twice. Again, you needn't go hundreds of miles away. You can hide from wind inland. You need to be away from the surge though. What you saw during Helene was more of an appetizer of what could occur with Milton, namely from the Tampa Bay area southward."
"I won't bury the lede: If you're asked to evacuate in Florida, please do. If you know of anyone unable to or that is unwilling to, try to reason with them or help them where possible. We are not here to tell you what to do, so much as provide information, but I want to be very clear that if I were ordered to evacuate from this storm, I would not think twice. Again, you needn't go hundreds of miles away. You can hide from wind inland. You need to be away from the surge though. What you saw during Helene was more of an appetizer of what could occur with Milton, namely from the Tampa Bay area southward."
Hurricane hunters just found a pressure of 898mb. 882mb is the record.
Hurricane #Milton Advisory 11A: Central Pressure in the Eye of Milton Has Fallen to a Near Record Low. Milton Poses an Extremely Serious Threat to Florida And Residents Are Urged to Follow the Orders of Local Officials. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 7, 2024
****ing hell
Is this thing doesn't get sheared it's going to be an epic monster
This animation and others of Hurricane Milton, can be found here: https://t.co/g8HzR0JcxC
— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) October 7, 2024
I know it is supposed to weaken before landfall but this could be the west coast's and central Florida's hurricane Andrew, in terms of destruction, since west Florida/tampa storms are not the norm.