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*****2025 HURRICANE THREAD*****

55,476 Views | 288 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Sea Speed
Jason_Roofer
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txags92 said:

If you believe in God, pray for the Jamaicans. Melissa has bombed out overnight and is still strengthening. Central pressure dropped 6 mb in a little over 2 hours between subsequent recon passes this morning and they just measured surface winds of 180 mph in the northern eyewall. Tropical Tidbits has a good aircraft recon page where you can track the hurricane hunter planes and see the data as it comes in if you are into that. But Jamaica is going to get pounded very hard for a prolonged period of time by this slow moving storm. So say a prayer for them if you are inclined, because they are going to need it.


Worth repeating. Obviously by trade I pay close attention to weather and get a lot of updates through various channels and none of this is good. Morning forecasts and models have not changed and In fact guidance and tightened around a direct and nearly central hit to Jamaica. It is going to be long term destruction and likely considerable loss of life per incoming data.
txags92
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AG
Looks like an eyewall replacement cycle may be starting based on some erosion of the eyewall on the satellite. Hopefully the wind speeds come down some just before landfall.
The Kraken
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AG
Strengthened. 180 mph top winds and 896mb just before landfall.
txags92
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AG
The Kraken said:

Strengthened. 180 mph top winds and 896mb just before landfall.

Actually NHC just said 892mb and 185 mph. Worst case scenario for Jamaica.
The Kraken
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AG
Now 185 and 892mb.
txags92
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AG
Looks like the AF303 plane made one pass through the eye and is bugging out after only dropping 3 sondes. Wonder if the plane got damaged by the turbulence again? The last sonde dropped in the S eyewall by the NOAA mission measured 198 mph at the surface in the south eyewall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
YellAg2004
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AG
Honest question, how TF do the planes survive flying those missions? Or am I just really misinformed about what type of "normal" conditions airplanes encounter on regular (non-HH) flights?
Sea Speed
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AG
Sea Speed
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AG
 
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