[This message has been edited by PJYoung (edited 8/15/2007 11:41a).]

We do NOT need this right now.

Supposed to hit as a tropical storm. I've had quite enough rain the past 2 months thank you.

We had a lot of rain last month, and I hear a little thunder out my window right now, but a little tropical storm wouldn't cause a lot of problems. Tropical storms are the way we replenish our water supply in this nice green valley of ours.

If you live in a low spot, rain will be a problem regardless of when it comes. Our greatest annual rainfall comes in the months of August and September and we have had zero rain in August.

As I drive around the valley, I don't see any evidence of it being too wet. Actually we have had two+ weeks of no rain and 95+ degree temperatures. The citrus, and sugar cane could use a little rain, and my old caliche road is dry as a bone!

It's pouring right now in San Juan. And I agree it's been fairly dry the past two weeks.

The backyard of my new house is a low spot. It's gonna suck for me if we get another 5 or 6 inches of rain this week.

[This message has been edited by PJYoung (edited 8/13/2007 4:26p).]

Did you know that they entire Hidalgo County is considered a flood plain.

On a bee line.

I was supposed to go to the beach this weekend.

It is supposed to hit just about head on now as a tropical depression. Lovely.

Wow, looks like that changed paths slightly towards us. I might have to find a canoe to get to work tomorrow.

Updated for Dean.




[This message has been edited by PJYoung (edited 8/17/2007 9:30a).]

It's Tropical Storm Erin now and I wouldn't be surprised if it gained strength as it hits around Corpus in the morning to become a hurricane even though it won't be called a hurrican. Good conditions for strengthening.

PJ can you post a link to the webcam? thanks

http://www.spadre.com/megasurfcam.htm

I think that's around La Copa. Maybe a little south of there.

thanks

over rated, clap clap!

We are doomed. The wind has switched to the NE.

If Dean were to follow a similar trajectory we would all die for sure.....

[This message has been edited by A-K (edited 8/15/2007 4:09p).]

I think I'll skip Whitewing season this year!

Whitewing season is supposed to be really good this year cuz of all the rain. All the birds I've seen are fat little guys too.

We are still two weeks away from White-Wing Season. The birds will be nice and fat this year!

You can forget WW season and all the rest, Dean will clean SP and the surrounding country for several years, ala Katrina, bout time!! Get the hell out while there is time, or face the consequence, it will be hell.

"57"

I have a feeling it's gonna take an '05 Emily like path and hit 100+ miles south of Brownsville.

If it keeps that path it will be a monster, I fear that some may not take it seriously....

Cat 4 hitting just south of Brownsville. Wow. That is almost worst case. Glad it's the 5 day forecast and not the 2 day.

3 storms to look at:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html

Allen 1980
Gilbert 1988
Emily 2005

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

This is NOAA's floater satellite image...so it will follow the storm as it nears landfall...the neat thing is you can click on "Trop Pts" and it allows you to see if the forecast track is "on" or "off"

Might be an efficient way to follow the storm...

Best wishes to all you in South Texas.

quote:

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In Cameron County, officials also took action Saturday. Cameron County Judge Carlos Cascos ordered a mandatory evacuation of high-profile vehicles from Laguna Madre. He also called for a voluntary evacuation of all Cameron County residents.

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Looks like the path is going further south.

We live. Boo.

its not over yet.....

West Point Aggie,

Thanks for the link. Looks like it bounced slightly more north....not much, but it does look like some of the computer models have pushed the projected landfall a bit closer to Brownsville. Still a long way from the US though.

It'll be interesting to see where it is when it passes the next projected path point.

It's a lock to come no closer than 250 miles from Brownsville. Next storm please.


And btw - that little fact isn't stopping the Feds and Texas from throwing our tax money away. The level of overreaction is incredible.

700 buses are here today. Amazing.

http://www.themonitor.com/news/county_4633___article.html/residents_people.html

quote:

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State, county leaders making contingency plans


Elizabeth Pierson Hernandez
August 20, 2007 - 7:33PM
With Hurricane Dean headed for Mexico instead, hundreds of school buses staged in the Rio Grande Valley are set to go back north.
In anticipation of the release of these buses, currently staged at the McAllen Convention Center, motorists are asked to seek alternate routes between 8 a.m. and 10 p.m. tomorrow.
The school buses will be escorted out of the McAllen Convention Center on Ware Road, on to U.S. Highway 83 to the Pharr Interchange, then north to U.S. 281 out of the Valley.
To avoid any type of congestion, motorists are asked to seek alternate routes in this area.

AUSTIN — Emergency planners on Monday prodded Rio Grande Valley residents who need a ride out of town during an evacuation to register their need with the county, even as Hurricane Dean set its sights on the Gulf of Mexico.

On Monday afternoon, Dean appeared headed for the Mexican Gulf Coast rather than the Valley, as earlier predicted.

But officials said people in Cameron, Hidalgo and Starr counties with medical problems, no car, or other barriers to leaving can still register as a precaution for the rest of hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30.

“There’s still a possibility it may turn north,” Hidalgo County Judge J.D. Salinas said.

“Our focus now is onto the Rio Grande River. We are going to be monitoring the water levels of dams in Mexico and the Rio Grande River. We are meeting with local officials to evacuate any people. If we have to evacuate, we will.”

On stand-by Monday were four C-130 aircraft, 300 ambulances, 336 buses, 185 search-and-rescue boats and 32 helicopters from around the state. About 28 Texas cities including Laredo and San Antonio have had agreed to house Valley residents if needed.

There is an estimated 536,000 people who would be expected to evacuate if required, officials said.

The registration system will help avoid the tragedies like those after Hurricane Katrina when rescuers couldn’t find victims in New Orleans, said Jack Colley, chief of the governor’s Division of Emergency Management.

“We learned from that,” he said.

“Just in this past week alone have seen an increase of 750 to 1,700 registrants,” said County Clerk Arturo Guajardo. “We have sent some of our staff to help man those calls and assist anyone who might need assistance in case there is a tragedy.”

County residents may register by calling (956) 383-6221.

The state stopped accepting applications for Dean evacuations at noon Sunday, but residents can still call 2-1-1 and an operator will stay on the line to make sure they can apply with local officials, said Krista Moody, spokeswoman for Gov. Rick Perry.

Statewide, more than 50,000 are registered, she said.

Cameron County officials have tried all summer to get residents to register, but only about 1,000 people responded, said County Judge Carlos Cascos. By Monday afternoon, residents afraid of Dean were calling in droves.

“It think it’s like quadrupled in the last 24 hours,” Cascos said. “But it’s a good thing.”

Although the storm appeared headed for Mexico’s coast between Tampico and Veracruz, state leaders want to be prepared for it to shift.

“Our concern for the worst is if that storm crosses the Yucatan and re-forms in the Gulf, like they do, and re-establishes itself somewhere off the current track,” said Jack Colley, chief of the governor’s Division of Emergency Management.

A direct hit on the Valley would be one of two “worst-case” scenarios for Texas, the other being a hit on Houston, said Homeland Security director Steve McCraw.

The last time a hurricane made a direct hit on the Valley was in 1967 when Hurricane Beulah killed 44 people.

The 1.2 million people in Willacy, Cameron and Hidalgo counties include more than 200,000 in colonias, most of which are on flood plains. There are also 305 nursing homes and 17 hospitals that present extra challenges in evacuations, McCraw said.

So far, more than 133,500 people in the Valley have been identified through various means as needing evacuation assistance, McCraw said.

Of those, 7,000 need medical attention and 1,600 have such serious conditions they would need to be carried out in an evacuation.

Regardless of whether Dean hits the Texas Gulf Coast, officials worry about flooding from feeder bands of rain.

“If you live near the Texas coast, get your house and your belongings in order,” Perry told reporters from the state’s emergency command center in Austin.

Residents should fill their gas tanks, collect important documents and medications, have three days of food and water on hand and study evacuation routes to be prepared if a mandatory evacuation is ordered, Perry said.

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So the buses just arrived today and landfall isn't expected until Wednesday afternoon but they're leaving tomorrow. Wow.