I can't say what the historians will say, but I consider myself among the most well-informed people I know on the subject, as I'm an intel officer currently serving in Iraq. Opinions here differ just like they do back home, but the general consensus, which I endorse, is that we have essentially given Al Qaeda a huge blow from which it will be difficult, if not impossible to recover.
We chased them out of the West first (Fallujah and Ramadi) and then squeezed them out of a lot of neighborhoods in Baghdad. They tried regrouping just to the north and just to the south and they got pushed out of there. Their last remaining stronghold is in Mosul and we're hitting them there.
But ultimately, what makes this important is that these victories are being sustained by an increasingly-capable Iraqi Army and Police. In the past, we'd clean out an area and they'd just flow back in like the tide. But now that they're coming back and finding new police stations, concerned local citizen checkpoints and angry civilians who want nothing to do with Al Qaeda's terrorism. It's a dynamic that has changed for the better.
Just about everybody over here agrees a premature withdrawal will lead to disasterous consequences. The Iraqis have made a ton of progress, but they're not there yet in terms of holding this for a long period. The sectarian warfare is largely over and the Baghdad news every day is filled with stories of Shi'a families welcoming their Sunni neighbors back into their neighborhoods.
But all of this is fragile and everything could go back to what it was a few months back - and probably get even worse than that - if we pulled out.
Not to mention the fact that in the long run, both Beiruit and Somalia gave comfort to our enemies and gave them what they considered were victories. This is not a meaningless exercise in win-loss ratio. The idea that the terrorists could be successful against the U.S. is the key driver in terrorist financing, and hence is the driving factor in support of our enemies.
If we outlast them and deliver into the world a stable, democratic Iraq, it will be a crushing blow to the terrorists. The Islamic fascists lost in Chechnya to the Russians, ultimately. They are losing here. They'll always be a factor in Afghanistan because that country is too rural to ever be guerilla free. But ultimately, they've lost the battle for the hearts and mind of the Iraqi people. It's dramatic when you read what the locals are saying, and what they're saying is that they want nothing of Al Qaeda, their so-called Islamic State, or some new caliphate. They just want to live in peace and raise their families.
Jihad fatigue has set in big time here, and ultimately, that's a huge development in our favor which we must exploit, not abandon.
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http://www.aalan94.blogspot.com/[This message has been edited by aalan94 (edited 2/22/2008 9:53p).]
