Methinks Juan Lee Pettimore is hungry ojos.

The posting style is VERY similar

Bump and
A&M 43
Mizz 13

Really appreciate your analysis. Definitely one of the best posters on TexAgs.

Just wanted to share some of my rat poison analysis. When you just look at the 2 strongest teams faced (A&M against ND/LSU and Mizzou against Bama/Vandy), A&M's chances look a lot stronger.

In regards to the Sagarin rating, A&M outperformed its season average in both games (13 points on average). Mizzou on the other hand just matched it's season average in both games. Using these Sagarin ratings, A&M would be 16 point favorites at Mizzou; much higher than the 3 points projected by Sagarin based on entire season against lesser opponents.

In total offense and defense stats, A&M's stats in both games aligned well with their season average while Mizzou's stats underperformed their season average by 170yards (120y offense / 50y defense).

So in summary, A&M steps up against the best competition while Mizzou fades away.

Ags 41
Mizzou 17

Screen and slant king with the Missouri QB. Their run game is solid, and their defense is stout.

Going to be close,

Texas A&M: 32*
Mizzou: 27

*Offense includes fake punt for 1st down.

Texas A&M
Passing yards: 240
Rushing yards: 180
Total yards: 420
Turnovers: 1
Points: 34

Missouri
Pasing yards: 180
Rushing yards: 160
Total yards: 340
Turnovers: 2
Points: 24

JohnClark929 said:

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Really appreciate your analysis. Definitely one of the best posters on TexAgs.

Just wanted to share some of my rat poison analysis. When you just look at the 2 strongest teams faced (A&M against ND/LSU and Mizzou against Bama/Vandy), A&M's chances look a lot stronger.

In regards to the Sagarin rating, A&M outperformed its season average in both games (13 points on average). Mizzou on the other hand just matched it's season average in both games. Using these Sagarin ratings, A&M would be 16 point favorites at Mizzou; much higher than the 3 points projected by Sagarin based on entire season against lesser opponents.

In total offense and defense stats, A&M's stats in both games aligned well with their season average while Mizzou's stats underperformed their season average by 170yards (120y offense / 50y defense).

So in summary, A&M steps up against the best competition while Mizzou fades away.

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This is what I have been saying (although you say it much more eloquently) about Miz. I am not worried about Miz. 42-17 Ags.

Iraq2xVeteran said:

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Texas A&M
Passing yards: 240
Rushing yards: 180
Total yards: 420
Turnovers: 1
Points: 34

Missouri
Pasing yards: 180
Rushing yards: 160
Total yards: 340
Turnovers: 2
Points: 24

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I like this

Risky101 said:

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Ags 41
Mizzou 17

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Book it

SpreadsheetAg said:

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Iraq2xVeteran said:

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Texas A&M
Passing yards: 240
Rushing yards: 180
Total yards: 420
Turnovers: 1
Points: 34

Missouri
Pasing yards: 180
Rushing yards: 160
Total yards: 340
Turnovers: 2
Points: 24

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I like this

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Miz rush yards high IMO

34-17

If spreadsheet Ag is gonna be off on the predictions, this is the best way he could do it! I'll take it every time

TheDecadeSapling said:

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If spreadsheet Ag is gonna be off on the predictions, this is the best way he could do it! I'll take it every time

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His personal guess was closer to reality. He didn't want to make injury adjustments to his formulas.

I know lol I'm not crapping on the formula. I'm saying I'll take more of these prediction misses

AggieZUUL said:

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Texas A&M: 32*
Mizzou: 27

*Offense includes fake punt for 1st down.

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Almost on the score

Risky101 said:

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Ags 41
Mizzou 17

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Dang! Kick the FG at the end and you win

juanyfutbol said:

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Y'all are delusional if you think we're putting up 35+ on Missouri's defense. Those guys are good.

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One serving of crow…eat up!

JohnClark929 said:

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Really appreciate your analysis. Definitely one of the best posters on TexAgs.

Just wanted to share some of my rat poison analysis. When you just look at the 2 strongest teams faced (A&M against ND/LSU and Mizzou against Bama/Vandy), A&M's chances look a lot stronger.

In regards to the Sagarin rating, A&M outperformed its season average in both games (13 points on average). Mizzou on the other hand just matched it's season average in both games. Using these Sagarin ratings, A&M would be 16 point favorites at Mizzou; much higher than the 3 points projected by Sagarin based on entire season against lesser opponents.

In total offense and defense stats, A&M's stats in both games aligned well with their season average while Mizzou's stats underperformed their season average by 170yards (120y offense / 50y defense).

So in summary, A&M steps up against the best competition while Mizzou fades away.

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Like my rat poison analysis?

Well played

AggieZUUL said:

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Texas A&M: 32*
Mizzou: 27

*Offense includes fake punt for 1st down.

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Good call on the fake punt!

Risky101 said:

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Ags 41
Mizzou 17

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Sometimes I'm almost right

I like when this is wrong for us

MaroonStain said:

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AggieZUUL said:

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Texas A&M: 32*
Mizzou: 27

*Offense includes fake punt for 1st down.

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Almost on the score

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I love the aggressive play call - perfectly executed.

SpreadsheetAg said:

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To be fair it wasn't wrong... it just didn't predict such a big win...

I may need to add in an "Elko" factor

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Just reduce the value of the BAS constant appled to the other team's score.

Can we agree that this algorithm is off this year?

Can you adjust it midseason?

It isn't giving our offense near enough credit.

juanyfutbol said:

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Y'all are delusional if you think we're putting up 35+ on Missouri's defense. Those guys are good.

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And we ran 243 yards on the top rush D in the SEC.

MiddleFinger.jpg

Risky101 said:

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Risky101 said:

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Ags 41
Mizzou 17

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Sometimes I'm almost right

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We basically were right. We ran clock on 4th down instead of kicking a fg out of respect