Damn, the 5 seed would be awesome...that's a de facto bye with the group of five team getting that 12 seed.

If you don't get the 5 - 6,7, and 8 seeds are all pretty much the same and just a toss-up on the draw you get.

Not sure we can get that 5 without some weird **** happening..

I don't see how USA Today is projecting Tech at 4. A 1-loss B12 v a 1-loss SEC team should on its face be a no-brainer, and a loss at Arizona State is a way more of a blemish than a loss at Texas...Plus SOR/SOS, the committee should put us ahead of tceh.

But that won't really matter if the committee puts Oregon anywhere ahead of us - which they will...

If they stick to their guns on not penalizing teams for losing conference title games, we have no shot. There will only be two 1-loss SEC teams and we will be one of them - but will still be 3rd among SEC teams in the CFP and maybe even 4th if Bama beats Auburn tonight and then Georgia in the SEC title game - I could see them hopping us and making us 4 among SEC teams in the CFP.

Only possibility of the five-seed (imo) is Auburn beats Bama, Georgia beats the dog**** out of Ole Miss, and either Tech loses in the B12CG or the committee does its job and realizes that 11 B12 wins should not get you a first round bye.

I dont see how they cant "punish" teams who lose ccgs.

I agree. So why wouldn't they set the brackets up on Monday? With a contingency that if a non-seeded team wins a CCG that team replaces the 11-seed, then 10-seed, and so-on...

That would mean they wouldn't be "saying" that teams don't get penalized for playing in CCGs, it would mean that they literally could not be penalized.

Outside of that, the committee is absolutely going to take into account what happens in those CCGs. Hell, they take into account injuries (see tceh)...they probably shouldn't do that, but they do.

We are talking about a committee that is a living embodiment of the Dunning-Kruger effect and introduced to the world "competitive groupings"...They have proven that they are (1) incapable of making reasonable rules for this thing (2) abiding by their own rules (3) eliminating bias and gut

Because of #3 it is highly likely that CCG losers will get penalized.

Under this scenario, it would look something like this...not exact, but kinda sorta the idea of setting up a scenario where CCGs can't influence anything at the top....

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Georgia
4. Ole Miss
5. Alabama
6. Texas A&M
7. Texas Tech
8. Oregon
9. Oklahoma*
10. Notre Dame*
11. Virginia*
12. Tulane/North Texas**

Bolded teams seedings set regardless of CCGs
*subject to losing spots to Conference Champions from power conferences
**Group of five

6 vs 7 seed would be a huge difference. You're talking about a middling ACC champ vs a team like ND.

Good point. You're absolutely right - I forgot about the ACC. 5 or 6 is what we want. Five gets us a cupcake and six we're still a 20+ point favorite. Seven and we have to play an actual game.

I really don't want to draw Notre Dame. Tough to beat any team twice - and my goodness would they be motivated to run that back.

Same rationale, although I think Texas' path is gone now, I would have loved to get them at Kyle in a playoff game. Holy **** that would be awesome.

Topher17 said:

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6 vs 7 seed would be a huge difference. You're talking about a middling ACC champ vs a team like ND.

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And I don't think we'll stay in front of Tech either

Man, to your point...The Athletic projects at a six -

That gives us SMU.

You slide to seven on their projection, you get ****ing Alabama. Pretty significant difference between SMU and Alabama.

I agree. But no idea why.

We win every metric imaginable against them, outside of the fact that their QB was out in their loss. (which isn't even a metric)

SMU is not in playoff

Smu is out

VANDY got to be in.

Yea this makes no sense. Our wins are better and our loss is better and we play in much better conference. Our strength of record is better. There is no metric that has Tech ahead of us. Why dont we just go to computer that bases stuff on objective criteria? Such a joke.

It think they're in the out group

I guess the Athletic has them in as the projected ACC champ? They have the tie-breaker over Miami to be #2 in that conference...

Yeah, Vandy's resume is better than Notre Dame's.

Vandy will get jobbed by the committee. They won't want to look too SEC heavy and they get to put their favorite puppy in there.

TxAgswin said:

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I don't see how USA Today is projecting Tech at 4. A 1-loss B12 v a 1-loss SEC team should on its face be a no-brainer, and a loss at Arizona State is a way more of a blemish than a loss at Texas...Plus SOR/SOS, the committee should put us ahead of tceh.

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Tech grad chiming in here.

I may be wrong, but I think A&M only drops to 4 this week and Tech stays at 5.

If Tech wallops BYU next week then they will move Tech to 4 (or maybe 3, depending on the B1G CG results - if OSU skull drags IU then I could see Tech possibly moving as high as 3, but if it is close or if IU wins then Tech would stay at 4). The SEC champ will be interesting. If it's Georgia they will move to #2. If it's Alabama, that will be something to watch, because the committee will love putting the SEC champ as high as they can, but putting a 2 loss team ahead of a bunch of one loss teams would require some gyrations, I think. Not saying that the SEC champ shouldn't be there. Saying that they will have to figure out a way to justify it.

If BYU plays Tech close then I could see A&M keeping that #4 slot, and Tech could fall to 6 or even 7, depending on how the other games wash out.

And if BYU beats Tech, all hell will break loose for all the teams below the top 5. Tech punched its ticket to the CFP today and won't drop out unless BYU wins in an absolute shellacking, which they won't. Two teams in from the Big 12 would cause several teams below #5 to have a really bad selection Sunday.

I appreciate your optimism

I agree w/ Skubalon.
I think there is a chance we drop to 4 and get the bye.
I understand that the committee is not a fan of A&M, but we might just get lucky.

tu has three wins against teams that should be in. Two losses against top 3 teams.

And Florida. Which is the reason they are going to the Alamo bowl

A CFP committee that's been constantly keeping us down at number 3 and behind Indiana…..and after losing to tu y'all think they'll only drop us one spot to Four????????

That's insane optimism right there….won't happen……

That's a tech fan, sir. Haven't seen an Aggie with that optimism yet.

I think we will slide in behind either Oregon or Ole miss, though it could be considered a little harsh.

But the committee is big on recency

TAMU74 said:

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I agree w/ Skubalon.
I think there is a chance we drop to 4 and get the bye.
I understand that the committee is not a fan of A&M, but we might just get lucky.

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As much as I'd like to see that happen, I think they'll drop us to either 6 or 7 based on the recency theory.

Kiffin leaving puts us in front of Ole Miss, I would guess.

Artorias said:

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Kiffin leaving puts us in front of Ole Miss, I would guess.

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I can't believe we're having to rely on The Decision 2.0 for our ranking lol

Espn just released their experts list-

Nearly all, except for David hale, had us a 6 or 7. Hale had us at 8 behind byu which is asinine

Bring n WOOD said:

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A CFP committee that's been constantly keeping us down at number 3 and behind Indiana…..and after losing to tu y'all think they'll only drop us one spot to Four????????

That's insane optimism right there….won't happen……

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Who do you think they will move ahead of A&M this week? Tech? Tech has only one loss but to a bad ASU team. Oregon? Oregon's only ranked win is against a mid USC. Ole Miss? Maybe I guess, but that would mean Ole Miss jumping Oregon and Tech,and they don't have a basis for that. A&M's only loss is to UT on the road, and for whatever reason the committee seems to like UT well enough. Georgia will move ahead of A&M but I don't think anyone else will.

Like I said above, I think A&M falls behind UGA to 4, and drops to 5 if Tech beats BYU. I can't envision 3rd place B1G Oregon jumping Tech and A&M, and I can't see Ole Miss jumping Oregon and Tech based on the results this week.

The spot we most deserve is probably 4 via any number of metrics.

But we're going to end up 6 or 7 based on "eye test"

No ****ing way.

According to the "experts" at ESPN, hell, this 11-1 SEC team should not be in the top half of the CFP:

ESPN BULL****

They have Tech at #3 and #4 and A&M bouncing between 7 and 8.

Give me one good or even bad reason that Tech should be ranked ahead of Texas A&M in any way, shape or form. Any single metric that they should be a single spot ahead of us, much less FOUR and get a ****ing bye. Insanity.

Who?mikejones! said:

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Espn just released their experts list-

Nearly all, except for David hale, had us a 6 or 7. Hale had us at 8 behind byu which is asinine

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I am not at all a BYU fan. At all. But while I think BYU should be in at this point regardless of what happens next week, the only way they are going to jump from 11 to 7 is if they beat Tech next week. Most analysts I have seen think that if BYU doesn't win the Big 12 CG, they are out. But who knows. I'm just sharing my opinion and I am famously wrong about all sorts of things. Just ask my teenagers.

Good luck Ags. As much as it pains me, you've got a hell of a team who happened to have lost a rivalry game on the road. It happens.

I have been calling out the Tech ranking BS for weeks. They are fool's gold playing a charmin soft conference and lost to a bad ASU team. Makes zero sense.

TxAgswin said:

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Give me one good or even bad reason that Tech should be ranked ahead of Texas A&M in any way, shape or form. Any single metric that they should be a single spot ahead of us, much less FOUR and get a ****ing bye. Insanity.

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I can give you several, but you won't like them.

This week's rankings don't matter anyway. Next Sunday is the thing, and next Saturday will bring chaos somewhere. Good luck, Ags.

If BYU is in then either ND or Bama or Ou or Tech is out. No room for BYU without someone getting bumped. A 2 loss team or the other Big 12 team. I agree that the Ags won't fall below any 2 loss teams. So 6 or 7 but probably only falling to 4 or 5 awaiting the title game results.

Ou is in

The 5 or 6 seed with a home game dec 20 against a Virginia or G5 team is better than a bye. All the rest of the games after that are nuetral sites so no real advantage being the
Higher seed. Last year, all 4 bye teams lost their first game.