Assume whatever you want in terms of results of next weekend's Conference Championship games.

I will take Georgia, Texas Tech, Ohio State and Virgina as winners of the big conferences.

I predict Tulane will be upset by North Texas, possibly making room for JMU as the 12th entrant.

I predict the CFP selections will be:

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Indiana (kept above Texas Tech to prevent rematch with Oregon in Quarterfinals)
4. Texas Tech

5. Oregon (the committee loves them)
6. Texas A&M
7. Oklahoma
8. Notre Dame

9. Ole Miss (dropped to bottom 4 - having to play on the road due to coaching debacle)
10. Virginia
11. Bama (as SEC Championship game loser and first 3-loss selection - dropped below Virginia by the committee to create a SEC match-up in Kyle Field between two teams from the same conference that did not get to play each other earlier this year)
12. JMU

If UNT upsets Tulane, they'll jump James Madison and get into the playoffs

Bama and UVa have a common opponent too lol. This is actually plausible. Let's take the 7 seed in this case and have UVa

wangus12 said:

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If UNT upsets Tulane, they'll jump James Madison and get into the playoffs

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Im pretty sure UNT is favored to win.

Tech isn't going down to BYU, so thankfully that can of worms should be avoided.

Let's hope at least.

I want Duke to win the ACC just for the sheer insanity it will bring. And also shine a spotlight on how stupid these oversized conferences are, SEC included.

UGA, UVA, Tard, OSU win:

1. OSU
2. UGA
3. Indiana
4. Tard
5. Oregon
6. A&M
7. Ole Miss
8. OU
9. ND
10. Bama
11. UVA
12. Tulane/NT/JMU

The issue is what happens of Bama wins Sec?

Agree with you except I don't think ole miss falls that far or below us:

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Indiana
4. Texas Tech


5. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas A&M
8. Oklahoma

9. Notre Dame
10. Virginia
11. Bama
12. JMU

lil_frog8 said:

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The issue is what happens of Bama wins Sec?

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Yep. UGA to 4 and Bama to 7? But then you have the 7th seed who has beaten the 4 seed twice this year. You also have OU, who beat Bama, behind Bama now. The CCG are just making **** worse with the 12 team format.

You could have an accurate prediction, but it's a joke that Tceh is above any one loss SEC team.

EDIT - IMO, they're not jumping two loss Notre Dame over a one loss SEC school.

Where's Miami? They beat ND head to head and are 11-1. I thought?

Miami is 10-2, but they can't get the ACC auto-bid. They're likely out.

aggiehawg said:

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Where's Miami? They beat ND head to head and are 11-1. I thought?

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they have two losses, like ND

Logos Stick said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Where's Miami? They beat ND head to head and are 11-1. I thought?

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they have two losses, like ND

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Oh but they still have the head to head. Committee has kept Miami below ND so far with the flimsy claim that those teams had not been in the same tranche so head to head has not been taken into account thus far.

I would NOT assume that at all. Technical should win but it's TCEH, would be very on brand for them to lose to BYU.

If BYU and Duke win there will be chaos.

Bama winning is a big ?? also. Where would they move up to and how far would UGA fall? My guess is it would make Bama 3 or 4 and UGA right behind them.

Kenneth_2003 said:

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Tech isn't going down to BYU, so thankfully that can of worms should be avoided.

Let's hope at least.

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Tech losing to byu helps us, no?

aggiehawg said:

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Logos Stick said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Where's Miami? They beat ND head to head and are 11-1. I thought?

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they have two losses, like ND

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Oh but they still have the head to head. Committee has kept Miami below ND so far with the flimsy claim that those teams had not been in the same tranche so head to head has not been taken into account thus far.

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If you dropped Ole Miss completely out of the CFP then you could make room for Miami. Otherwise, who does Miami bump out? 3-loss Bama after losing the SEC Championship game to Georgia? Don't see that happening.

The Hurricanes have H2H versus ND - but their losses to SMU and to Louisville considered worse than ND losses to us and to... Miami. Logically, then, they could replace ND in the playoffs. But that's not going to happen.

Miami, like Vandy, are flat out of luck due to the rule that 5 highest ranked conference champions get invited. Leaves only 7 spots for everyone else.

Real question might be - if Bama is not penalized for losing SEC Championship game then would BYU also be considered a possible entrant after losing to Texas Tech?

CHAOS would be Bama and BYU both winning. That puts BYU in and drops... who? Ole Miss? Oklahoma?

We know that spots 11 and 12 will go to Conference Champions from lesser conferences (and ACC would NOT get an invitation if Duke wins - so likely UNT/Tulane winner and JMU for those last two spots).

To be honest: the first round game is tactically valuable since all four byes last year lost. I'm not sure if playing on the road is that much of a disadvantage.

greg.w.h said:

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To be honest: the first round game is tactically valuable since all four byes last year lost. I'm not sure if playing on the road is that much of a disadvantage.

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Pay attention. It was a different format.


Which team with a bye will be an underdog this year? How many last year?

1. Ohio st
2. UGA
3. Indiana
4. Tech
5. Oregon
6. Ags
7. Ole Miss
8. Ou
9. ND
10. Bama
11. James Madison (uva gets upset by duke and acc is left out)
12. North Texas

That scenario with the acc will have that league up in arms trying to drive change to the format that guarantees a power 4 conference a spot even if its champ is not one of the 5 highest ranked: they'll want to be able to take the highest ranked team in their league as a replacement in future years )

You're not a college basketball or college baseball fan, I take it?

The last at large team in the field, barring a BYU upset of Tech, will be the 10 seed. The 11 and 12 seeds will be the last two conference champ auto qualifiers. It is impossible for Bama to be the 11. If they aren't 10, they aren't in the field.

Move Bama to 10 and A&M to 7. Same matchup. Far more likely.

That won't fly, format will NOT be changed to accommodate the ACC so they won't even try. They also voted for the no Power 4 AQs so they can't reneg on that now.

What they will do is revise their own tie-breakers or title game rules to ensure the two highest ranked ACC teams play for the ACC title. Really all they have to do is say the #1 tie-breaker is CFP ranking, regardless of H2H result among any 2/3/4 tied teams.

Miami is tied with a 6-2 ACC record with 4 other teams but only played 2 of them, SMU and Pitt, beat Pitt, lost to SMU, did not play Duke or Ga. Tech.

The conferences are too big now leading to all this stupidity. Need to go (back to) divisions or some type of pod system (think NFL divisions) where last 2 conference games can be TBD (but already set home / away) and 1s play 4, 2s play 3s and you end up with two teams to play in a champ. game.

Jarrin Jay said:

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That won't fly, format will NOT be changed to accommodate the ACC so they won't even try. They also voted for the no Power 4 AQs so they can't reneg on that now.

What they will do is revise their own tie-breakers or title game rules to ensure the two highest ranked ACC teams play for the ACC title. Really all they have to do is say the #1 tie-breaker is CFP ranking, regardless of H2H result among any 2/3/4 tied teams.

Miami is tied with a 6-2 ACC record with 4 other teams but only played 2 of them, SMU and Pitt, beat Pitt, lost to SMU, did not play Duke or Ga. Tech.

The conferences are too big now leading to all this stupidity. Need to go (back to) divisions or some type of pod system (think NFL divisions) where last 2 conference games can be TBD (but already set home / away) and 1s play 4, 2s play 3s and you end up with two teams to play in a champ. game.

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Agree with that

They will probably just use cfp ranking as the tiebreaker instead of head to head

They're not dropping ol miss over the kiffen thing. They won't double down on what's being done to those kids.

twk said:

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You're not a college basketball or college baseball fan, I take it?

The last at large team in the field, barring a BYU upset of Tech, will be the 10 seed. The 11 and 12 seeds will be the last two conference champ auto qualifiers. It is impossible for Bama to be the 11. If they aren't 10, they aren't in the field.

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I am a huge CFB and CBB fan.

Nothing says that the 11 and 12 slots have to go to the 4th and 5th highest ranked Conference Champions. It is only that the top 5 highest ranked Conference Champions will be included. Where they are ranked within the 12 spots is based on their relative ranking compared with the 7 at large teams.

The last CFP rankings had Bama 10th snd Virgina 18th.

If Virginia wins the ACC Championship game, they will have only 2 losses - to Wake Forest and NC State. Those are not terrible losses - as those are both bowl eligible teams with records of 8-4 and 7-5 respectively. Virginia's best win is probably Louisville. Really no impressive wins for them IMO.

Bama, with several very good wins will also have 3 losses (1 more loss than Virginia) 2 of them "good losses" to Oklahoma and Georgia. But one BAD loss to Florida State. That happens to be a common opponent that Virginia easily beat. Clearly I think Bama would have a stronger overall record and resume - but I could see the committee using the fact the Virginia will be a recently crowned conference champion with only 2 losses and a win over the team that handily BEAT Bama- plus the fact that they might want to put Bama against Texas A&M in an "eliminate one of the SEC teams" opening game to decide to make Virgina the 10th ranked team in the final CFP rankings and drop Bama from 10 to 11.

If you don't think the final rankings can be manipulated or tweaked to produce a "desirable bracket" and "interesting matchups" then you might be the one who doesn't follow CBB much (since CFB is relatively new to this playoff bracket thing). Happens all the time for March Madness.

Logos Stick said:

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Agree with you except I don't think ole miss falls that far or below us:

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Indiana
4. Texas Tech


5. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas A&M
8. Oklahoma

9. Notre Dame
10. Virginia
11. Bama
12. JMU

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Virginia @ home & Indiana in 2nd round would be a dream


No way we pull this draw

Pichael Thompson said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Agree with you except I don't think ole miss falls that far or below us:

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Indiana
4. Texas Tech


5. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas A&M
8. Oklahoma

9. Notre Dame
10. Virginia
11. Bama
12. JMU

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Virginia @ home & Indiana in 2nd round would be a dream


No way we pull this draw

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This one would be 7v2. So Georgia, not IU

UVA isn't getting ranked over Bama.

The playoff locking AFTER conference championships is going to undermine those games, and expansionists are going to jump on it.

In enough years a team that's top 12 after the regular season is going to be penalized for losing their extra (high difficulty) conference championship game. They'll be justifiably upset about it and question the point of the extra game. Many will agree. A question will be asked about how the committee can choose without those games. Expansionists are salivating to offer 16 or 32 team playoffs as solutions.

The conference championships may well be a dead institution walking, and college football will continue to march toward being just another standardized pro sport offering.

If the favorites win their respective conference championship Games, I am predicting the following seeds.

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Indiana (ranked above Big 12 Champion Texas Tech to prevent a rematch with Oregon in the quarterfinals)
4. Texas Tech
5. Oregon
6. Texas A&M
7. Ole Miss
8. Oklahoma
9. Notre Dame
10. Alabama
11. Virginia
12. North Texas

I really don't get Oregon. Their best and only ranked win is against three loss USC. I guess they lost to #2 Indiana but it's circular logic both of them using each other as their reason for making a playoff case. It's like they beat #2 PSU and everyone lost track of how terrible they are after that game.

That looks right to me.