I think they might after tonight if they beat Tech. If both BYU and Bama win it could bump us down to the 9 seed.

No

No

BYU would be 12-1

with 3 ranked wins...Tech, Utah, and Arizona

but maybe Tech at 11-2 would drop below the Ags

The big bump up they gave to Arizona was done to justify a BYU surge up the rankings should they beat Texas Tech.

But I think Tech wins the rematch.

If BYU wins and Georgia wins (Bama losesl - then ND and Bama will be the big discussion as to which is bumped out.

W said:

---

BYU would be 12-1

with 3 ranked wins...Tech, Utah, and Arizona

but maybe Tech at 11-2 would drop below the Ags

---

These "ranked wins" dont mean jack

W said:

---

BYU would be 12-1

with 3 ranked wins...Tech, Utah, and Arizona

but maybe Tech at 11-2 would drop below the Ags

---

Yeah I think BYU would jump above us but Tech would fall below, so it would probably be a wash. Would change who we play though, since it would almost certainly knock Noter Dame out of the field

BYU ain't beating tech

You're new around here aren't ya?

I wouldn't doubt a 1 loss conference champion jumping up 4 spots

If Bama and BYU both win..we may be packing our bags

I 100% expect to be the 9 seed if both BYU and Alabama win. However, my projection is that they both lose, Georgia moves up to the #2 spot, and we get them if we beat ND and move to the second round.

1939 said:

---

I 100% expect to be the 9 seed if both BYU and Alabama win. However, my projection is that they both lose, Georgia moves up to the #2 spot, and we get them if we beat ND and move to the second round.

---

If Bama wins, they move above us pushing us to 8 due to Georgia not being punished super aggressively to the point they're behind us. BYU would also probably jump us pushing us to 9. It could be us going to Oxford in that case. Either Oxford or Mormon land. Not sure. I don't see a scenario where we stay matched up against ND. They would ATLEAST flip flop ND and Bama (if they lose)

It will be really sad if T Tech loses and still stays above us.

Their non conf was a joke and their record would be worse than ours.

IF BYU and Bama win, and we fall to 9, then the committee would be putting 3, 2 loss teams ahead of us. That just doesn't seem feasible, even if they do hate us. I would think they'd have to swap Tech for BYU at the very least. No doubt they'll elevate Bama over us, but I can't see all 3 of them.

Bama lost to freaking Florida State. The worst part of this year's selection criteria is that it doesn't seem to make a rat's ass if you lost to a terrible team early in the year. The subjectivity of the criteria this year is off the rails. The best way to solve this is for the 4 conferences to have their own mini playoffs and send their winner to the semi's. Or just take the top 4 from each conference and let them go at it. Whatever it takes for this subjective BS to stop.

The big 10/12 and SEC champion will all be ahead of us no matter what. Question is how far would Georgia/TT fall if they lost. I would have to assume both below us.

Who are the 3 2-loss teams in that scenario?

Bama, T Tech & who?

BYU to 5
Tech down to 10 with a loss
Nd gone

If byu wins

So if Tech loses, the BiG10 gets three first round byes?

If BYU wins they will jump us. I doubt Tech would drop 5 spots for losing their CCG. Worst case for Ags is Bama and BYU winning, that would drop us out of a home game. Notre Dame is our floor, and I doubt we'd drop behind OU either. Notre Dame has to be worried. They are close to getting bumped out.

If BYU wins, Notre Dame likely gets jumped by Miami also. Since Miami has the head to head, if they're ranked 11 and 12, they likely flip spots.

By far the biggest upset of the weekend would be BYU over Tech. Very, very small chance BYU wins (IMO).

But....if they do and Bama wins, I could see a scenario where they move BYU to 8 and us to 9.

They might but they shouldn't.

Should be:

6 Texas A&M
7 BYU
8 Texas Tech

BMX Bandit said:

---

No

---

The crazy thing would be that should byu win, they'd practically have the same (or better) resume as tech.

It's ridiculous that we're even having this discussion because the committee is dog **** for dropping us from one of 3 remaining undefeateds to the LOWEST ranked 1 loss team. It should matter WHO you lost to, not WHEN. Put up the strength of schedule and strength of record numbers and it doesn't make any sense other than the committee is filled with idiots.

Wabs said:

---

By far the biggest upset of the weekend would be BYU over Tech. Very, very small chance BYU wins (IMO).

But....if they do and Bama wins, I could see a scenario where they move BYU to 8 and us to 9.

---

No, the biggest upset (and nightmare for the Committee) would be Duke beating UVA in the ACC CCG. That would leave the ACC without a rep in the playoffs, UNLESS they finally take the head to head between Miami and ND into account and boot ND in favor of Miami. ACC gets a spot.

aggiehawg said:

---

Wabs said:

---

By far the biggest upset of the weekend would be BYU over Tech. Very, very small chance BYU wins (IMO).

But....if they do and Bama wins, I could see a scenario where they move BYU to 8 and us to 9.

---

No, the biggest upset (and nightmare for the Committee) would be Duke beating UVA in the ACC CCG. That would leave the ACC without a rep in the playoffs, UNLESS they finally take the head to head between Miami and ND into account and boot ND in favor of Miami. ACC gets a spot.

---

I don't think UVA is that good, so not farfetched to think Duke can beat them. But I agree, a Duke win would shake up the picture big time. I do think they'd put Miami in so the ACC has at least 1 rep. And I think Miami would be coming to Kyle Field as the 10 seed.

Historically, the committee has moved teams 2 or 3 spots depending on whether they win or lose their conference championship. Moving BYU from 11 to 7 would be pretty unusual.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but the more likely scenario after a BYU win is Tech dropping 3 spots from 4 to 7, bumping us up to 6. At least to me, it would be weird to put Tech at 6, wedged between Ole Miss and A&M. Feels like there isn't much separating the Rebels and the Ags.

Quote:

---

Put up the strength of schedule and strength of record numbers and it doesn't make any sense

---

when you pull up the strength of schedule and strength of record numbers that are given to the committee, not the ones from ESPN, it makes perfect sense.

its a classic example of GIGO. The committee is fed garbage, that is why garbage comes out

of the four one loss teams we were grouped with, the strength of schedule and strength of record numbers (what they call "Game control") are

tech 99th SOS 32 GC (2nd best)
oregon 43rd SOS 23.3 GC (apparently this is good)
ole miss 71st SOS 17.2 GC
A&M 91st SOS (out of 136 teams. that is just dumb) 14.1 GC (3rd worst in the poll)

6 #OleMiss #HottyToddy
Projected: 6✅

SOS 71
QW 3
T25W 2
GC 17.2

This is not the same as FSU. The committee had time to see the result of a backup QB. They will not penalize this team w/no on field results to do so. The projection had them right here.

— Adam McClintock (@cfb_professor) December 3, 2025

4 #TexasTech #WreckEm
Projected: 4✅

SOS 99
QW 3
T25W 2
GC 32.0#RedRaiders have positioned themselves to get a 1st round bye. SOS is an eyesore but with the 2nd best GC in the poll its allowed. W/ the field as tight as it is, it wouldnt be wise to get another L even in a CCG.

— Adam McClintock (@cfb_professor) December 3, 2025

strength of schedule is calculated based on the win loss record of your opponents and your opponents' opponents.. so beating a 8-4 MAC team is better than beating LSU or Missouri. As I have posted several times, it may be the worst possible way to do strength of schedule.

(I don't know how game control is calculated, but we suck at it and tech is great at it)

I doubt it. While a strange, misguided cult, every Mormon I've met has been very nice and hospitable.
They've had their issues in the past but they are mostly nonviolent.

well done

Mormons shouldn't be attacking anyone.

But I guess watch out for dark alleys in Utah.

There is nothing indicating we should expect anything other than the worst possible outcome for us. So if Bama and BYU wins, all signs point to us going on the road. It's absolute horse ****, but this corrupt committee has made it very clear that they don't value a single thing about us.

All I know is we will see more Catholics rooting against Mormons than at any time in history.

bslater07 said:

---

It's ridiculous that we're even having this discussion because the committee is dog **** for dropping us from one of 3 remaining undefeateds to the LOWEST ranked 1 loss team. It should matter WHO you lost to, not WHEN. Put up the strength of schedule and strength of record numbers and it doesn't make any sense other than the committee is filled with idiots.

---

They are operating under different SoS metrics. Regardless, I think the way Oregon finished the season and the way Tech destroyed their Big 12 sched other than the 1 hiccup is enough to justify them ahead of us.

On the other hand, Ole Miss is similar to us in that they have played up/down to their competition for much of the year. Okie/ND road wins basically cancel each other out. In common opponents, A&M was much more impressive in LSU/Florida wins, similar type games vs. Miss State/Arky. A&M loss on road to Texas worse than UGA loss.

Where the divide seems to be is the belief that Tulane is a quality opponent for Ole Miss, while a road win vs. Mizzou is not for A&M. 10-2 Tulane is somehow 21 in the CFP with a +77 scoring margin in the AAC, while 11-1 North Texas is literally double that at +154 with a tougher conference slate and they are at 20. Meanwhile, 8-4 Mizzou has 4 losses to top 14 teams. Iowa is also 8-4, with 2 losses to playoff teams, others are USC and Iowa State. Somehow they are a top 25 team CFP team, but Mizzou is not.

If UNT wins by multiple scores, I think Tulane exits the CFP top 25 and Mizzou enters. JMU losing could also allow Mizzou to enter. This the path to being seeded 6 IMO. As much as I want the chaos of the ACC being left out, I'd much rather play UVA over UNT at that spot.

Prepare yourself for a road game in Lubbock