Divining Rod said:

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Committee has already worked this out to avoid rematch.


Bama and Tech both win, Bama jumps us and ND, pushing us to 8 to play OU at 9.

Bama and Tech both lose, BYU jumps us, Bama to 10. ND 9, and Tech moves behind us at 8. We play Bama.

Bama wins, Tech loses, BYU and Bama jump us, but Tech is put just behind us. We move to 8 and play Tech at 9. ND is out. (yes, they really will be)

Bama loses, Tech wins, Bama and ND switch places and we play Bama.

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If BYU wins, they take the ND spot. Your scenario would have OU out.

BYU does NOT currently have a spot in the playoff

SWAGBOT said:

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If the committee holds true to conference championship game losers not being punished (not that they've kept their word on anything), then I don't think Tech would drop below us for losing.

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They should already be lower than us by losing to ASU.

El Chupacabra said:

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I want maximum chaos. That is all.

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not sure maximum chaos favors the maroon-n-white

FWIW, I was bored and ran a monte carlo simulation of potential matchups based on Vegas win probabilities in conference championships, and how far the committee tends to move teams after a win/loss in their conference championship. Here's what it says:

35%: A&M 8-seed vs Oklahoma 9-seed
34%: A&M 7-seed vs Alabama 10-seed
15%: A&M 7-seed vs Notre Dame 10-seed
5%: A&M 6-seed vs AAC winner 11-seed
4%: A&M 7-seed vs BYU 10-seed
4%: A&M 7-seed vs Miami 10-seed
1%: A&M 8-seed vs BYU 9-seed
1%: A&M 7-seed vs Oklahoma 10-seed
1%: A&M 9-seed vs BYU 8-seed

I do think that even a 15% probability we play ND seems too high. Hard to imagine Bama only jumping 1 spot if they beat Georgia.

If tech loses, max they drop them is 1-2 spots

LB12Diamond said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Hope you're right because I'd rather play anyone than ND. I don't think they should be in the playoffs in the first place.

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Them being above Miami is even worse than they hosed us in 2020!

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This is hilarious:

"It's so confusing... I can explain, over the next 5 minutes, the blockchain easier than I can the College Football Playoff."@colincowherd questions why the latest CFP rankings have Notre Dame ahead of Miami, despite losing head to head pic.twitter.com/eNkrSgeCJQ

— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) December 3, 2025

Sq 17 said:

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Lilly Biucci said:

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I'm just praying for the scenario where Tech looks terrible vs BYU and we jump back to the 6 seed. Hey, a man can dream, can't he?

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6 is the sweet spot assuming IU ends up in the three hole

I like your thinking, certainly in the most plausible way we end up at six

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Would you rather play Georgia in New Orleans or Atlanta?

Definitely New Orleans!

Then we can beat Indiana in Atlanta to go to the finals.

I like the 7 seed better than the 6.

Prefer the easier path to the semis

Making it to the round of 4 for reputational consideration and confidence
Is important
Will start the process of ending BAS

Disagree

You play to win it all. Not get to the semis.

100% if they find a way to boot us down to 9 or lower they will.

GCP12 said:

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Divining Rod said:

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Committee has already worked this out to avoid rematch.


Bama and Tech both win, Bama jumps us and ND, pushing us to 8 to play OU at 9.

Bama and Tech both lose, BYU jumps us, Bama to 10. ND 9, and Tech moves behind us at 8. We play Bama.

Bama wins, Tech loses, BYU and Bama jump us, but Tech is put just behind us. We move to 8 and play Tech at 9. ND is out. (yes, they really will be)

Bama loses, Tech wins, Bama and ND switch places and we play Bama.

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If BYU wins, they take the ND spot. Your scenario would have OU out.

BYU does NOT currently have a spot in the playoff

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Yes, Youre right.

Quote:

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. All yall trying to prognosticate are nuts.

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generally i'd agree. however this was made in response to the puzzling move of putting us in a rematch position. So i was trying to figure why they'd do it thst way. im fairly certain they knew that order would change, and this shows how it would likely result.

the only team sweating bullets is ND. BYU wins and ND is out. Even if they lose, it puts Miami. right next to ND and head to head might decide.

RecklessAg said:

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Good breakdown, and hope youre correct. I just dont trust this committee to use logic or forethought.

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This

Divining Rod said:

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Quote:

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. All yall trying to prognosticate are nuts.

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generally i'd agree. however this was made in response to the puzzling move of putting us in a rematch position. So i was trying to figure why they'd do it thst way. im fairly certain they knew that order would change, and this shows how it would likely result.

the only team sweating bullets is ND. BYU wins and ND is out. Even if they lose, it puts Miami. right next to ND and head to head might decide.

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Hope that happens. About time ND was not treated like a porcelain doll.