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Our Odds to Win a Playoff Game Collapsed Massively

3,530 Views | 22 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by Bunk Moreland
DTX_12
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9:00a, 12/6/25
AG
After the G5 games last night our odds to win one playoff game collapsed from

-4000 to -270

Oregon now has better odds to make it to the round of 8 than Georgia and Ole Miss odds of winning their first game have increased 6X

We went from being the 4th most likely to make the Semis to now we are 7th
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HoustonAg2106
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9:06a, 12/6/25
AG
That -4000 never made any sense

Edit: unless someone in the committee is literally telling Vegas what the rankings will be
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jt16
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In reply to HoustonAg2106 • 9:11a, 12/6/25
AG
HoustonAg2106 said:
That -4000 never made any sense

Edit: unless someone in the committee is literally telling Vegas what the rankings will be


The odds were that north Texas beat Tulane. That degrades the ole miss win over a top 25 Tulane and helps A&M jump ole miss
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Luigi Vampa
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In reply to DTX_12 • 9:12a, 12/6/25
AG
DTX_12 said:
After the G5 games last night our odds to win one playoff game collapsed from

-4000 to -270

Oregon now has better odds to make it to the round of 8 than Georgia and Ole Miss odds of winning their first game have increased 6X

We went from being the 4th most likely to make the Semis to now we are 7th

Something tells me that-4000 line was never one you could put action on. Mistake line.
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HoustonAg2106
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In reply to jt16 • 9:15a, 12/6/25
AG
jt16 said:
HoustonAg2106 said:
That -4000 never made any sense

Edit: unless someone in the committee is literally telling Vegas what the rankings will be


The odds were that north Texas beat Tulane. That degrades the ole miss win over a top 25 Tulane and helps A&M jump ole miss


The odds were basically a coin flip that North Texas was going to beat Tulane. -4000 for anything is almost a guarantee.

Even if North Texas had won it's not -4000 that we jump Ole Miss unless the committee has confirmed to them that would happen without knowing everything else that happens this weekend
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Bunk Moreland
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9:20a, 12/6/25
Instead of people posting pictures of lines, post the link that it can actually be bet on because -4000 was always bull*****
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HoustonAg2106
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In reply to Bunk Moreland • 9:23a, 12/6/25
AG
Bunk Moreland said:
Instead of people posting pictures of lines, post the link that it can actually be bet on because -4000 was always bull*****


Why would anyone want to bet on that -4000 is the question
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DTX_12
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In reply to Luigi Vampa • 9:25a, 12/6/25
AG
Luigi Vampa said:
DTX_12 said:
After the G5 games last night our odds to win one playoff game collapsed from

-4000 to -270

Oregon now has better odds to make it to the round of 8 than Georgia and Ole Miss odds of winning their first game have increased 6X

We went from being the 4th most likely to make the Semis to now we are 7th

Something tells me that-4000 line was never one you could put action on. Mistake line.


It's been on Fanduel the entire week. They also let you shovel money into Oregon the entire week at -600 if you wanted they apparently are virtually guaranteed to win their game. Same with Ole Miss.
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Bucho
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9:26a, 12/6/25
AG
The bet was on Oregon and Ole Miss. This is basically a moneyline parlay. Cashout is now paying -200.


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DTX_12
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In reply to Bucho • 9:36a, 12/6/25
AG
Were you the one who called this out in the other thread? If so great call by you. I remember someone called this out a couple of days ago and posters were like no way you can parlay that at + odds!!!

Like idk what to tell you guys these numbers are real
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Bucho
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In reply to DTX_12 • 9:38a, 12/6/25
AG
Yes was me. May cash out since I dont know how Ole Miss players respond with coaching changes.
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BMX Bandit
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In reply to HoustonAg2106 • 9:38a, 12/6/25
HoustonAg2106 said:
Bunk Moreland said:
Instead of people posting pictures of lines, post the link that it can actually be bet on because -4000 was always bull*****


Why would anyone want to bet on that -4000 is the question



Links were posted to where you could be it on fanduel.


I would wager no one was dumb enough to take that much of a sucker bet for any meaningful money.
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10:09a, 12/6/25
AG
If we draw Notre Dame, those odds will go positive.
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merch
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In reply to jt16 • 10:22a, 12/6/25
Ags were not jumping Ole Miss.

Committee is incompetent. You really think they would look at that game as a reason to downgrade Ole Miss? No way.
Nothing looks more foolish than tradition to those who have none.
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HoustonAg2106
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In reply to 4 • 10:37a, 12/6/25
AG
4 said:
If we draw Notre Dame, those odds will go positive.

Which is negative
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jeffdjohnson
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10:41a, 12/6/25
If A&M was jumping Ole Miss it had to happen last week. The -4000 odds never made any sense.
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DTX_12
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In reply to Bunk Moreland • 10:51a, 12/6/25
AG
Bunk Moreland said:
Instead of people posting pictures of lines, post the link that it can actually be bet on because -4000 was always bull*****

https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/ncaaf?tab=cfb-playoff

Multiple people posted it in this forum. Fanduel is one of the largest sports books in America and they had it live for over a week.

Not sure why you are so aggressively trying to deny reality and facts, but hey that's up to you
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DTX_12
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In reply to Bucho • 10:54a, 12/6/25
AG
Nice work. Hilarious how there are people in this forum saying these lines aren't real and meanwhile there's literally people in the same thread profiting from them.

Kind of makes a lot of Texags make a lot more sense, when you can post a picture of reality and half the commenters say "Nuh uh thats not real"
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biglebowski
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10:56a, 12/6/25
Wonder if there's a gambling mafia of sorts that has connections to the committee.
Gig’em
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HoustonAg2106
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In reply to DTX_12 • 10:56a, 12/6/25
AG
DTX_12 said:
Nice work. Hilarious how there are people in this forum saying these lines aren't real and meanwhile there's literally people in the same thread profiting from them.

Kind of makes a lot of Texags make a lot more sense, when you can post a picture of reality and half the commenters say "Nuh uh thats not real"

Nobody said the pictures or the lines weren't real, we were saying it had to be a mistake or was a bad line that made no sense.
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wangus12
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In reply to HoustonAg2106 • 10:59a, 12/6/25
AG
HoustonAg2106 said:
That -4000 never made any sense

Edit: unless someone in the committee is literally telling Vegas what the rankings will be

Well someone told the committee what the rankings were before Tuesday because the Ole Miss odds went way up before they were released
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HoustonAg2106
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In reply to wangus12 • 11:02a, 12/6/25
AG
wangus12 said:
HoustonAg2106 said:
That -4000 never made any sense

Edit: unless someone in the committee is literally telling Vegas what the rankings will be

Well someone told the committee what the rankings were before Tuesday because the Ole Miss odds went way up before they were released

I can see them finding out before they get released publicly, but there are still games left to play this weekend. The committee shouldn't be telling vegas for sure what the rankings are going to be yet (unless they are really that corrupt which is certainly in play)
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Bunk Moreland
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In reply to DTX_12 • 11:19a, 12/6/25
DTX_12 said:
Bunk Moreland said:
Instead of people posting pictures of lines, post the link that it can actually be bet on because -4000 was always bull*****

https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/ncaaf?tab=cfb-playoff

Multiple people posted it in this forum. Fanduel is one of the largest sports books in America and they had it live for over a week.

Not sure why you are so aggressively trying to deny reality and facts, but hey that's up to you


Didn't see that thread. Thanks for posting. -4000 might as well be "off the board" as they're basically saying they haven't set a line for A&M yet. Its not a statement of confidence.
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