Ahah! I KNEW it was rigged.!

Easy schedule
Good coaching
Older players with some talent
Avoid Injuries

got it, thanks

Add "go undefeated" to your list and it's workable. Better to play some good teams too but if you get in the CFP undefeated and don't lose there, you are a shoo-in.

Last four bullet points are fairly obvious, but the first two are important. As much as I'd love to see high-profile cross-P4 games during the regular season, all the incentives point to not doing that. While I'm glad they didn't make it in, it is a fact that if tu had played a weak G5 school instead of tOSU, they'd have been in the playoffs. I don't like the incentive structure that creates.

There is no real incentive to playing P4s anymore vs just load up on cupcakes. If we had lost to ND and beaten sip then our season would have been so much better.

Would be better off in the BIG10

Literally no reason to ever schedule a hard OOC game, especially with a 9 game SEC schedule. Committee has shown that they don't care.

Divining Rod said:

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Ahah! I KNEW it was rigged.!

Easy schedule
Good coaching
Older players with some talent
Avoid Injuries

got it, thanks

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Say what you'd like, but most of these are different, at least in certain ways, from how it has worked for over a decade before this. Saban's Alabama and other top teams were mowing down the competition with rosters full of three-and-done 5* players that seemed to gain an advantage from being pushed week-in and week-out by relatively harder schedules. Avoiding injuries has always been part of the game, but it was less punative when the backup QB is a 5* player that has been riding the bench for two years behind your starter. Good coaching has always been important, but in the past there were some years where "good coaching" didn't mean much more than just pulling in a better recruiting class than other teams. Now it means being better at development and X's and O's.

I'm not trying to say that any of this is earth-shattering new information, but things have obviously changed, and we are getting enough data now to figure out which areas are more and less important in the new system.

Your 3rd point is conflating 2 things and is off the mark. IU was built on transfers, not players "in your system for the whole time just putting their head down and grinding it out".

True some IU players came from JMU with Cignetti, but the most important player for IU for 2 years in a row has been a transfer QB. For IU the QB, RBs and WRs almost none of them played for IU last year vs ND in the CFP. Not sure about the OL and D.

IU has 4/5/6 year players at EVERY position, and many/most of those were transfers, some in first year some in second, maybe a couple in year 3. And a 3*** player out of HS that is playing his 4th or 5th year of CFB is going to whip a 5***** true FR or Soph. the vast majority of the time.

What is clear now if it wasn't before is that xfer portal additions are now more important than HS recruiting. HS recruting is still the foundation of the team to build out the roster, but xfer portal is key for adding experienced players at key positions and getting game ready players on the OL and DL that you don't have to develop from a skinny 18 year old for 2-3 years before they can contribute at a high level.

Jack Boyett said:

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The SEC is not an advantage anymore. Would be better off back in the Big 12.

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If the goal is to make the playoffs then yes you are correct. While the games would not be as fun to watch as the SEC games we would be the big dog in the conference and have a better shot than most to play for the Big 12 championship every year and thus a better shot at making the playoffs. We will get overshadowed by schools like UGA, LSU, Bama, t.u., etc. when it comes to who they rank higher. Hell we saw it this year with us being the lowest ranked 1 loss SEC team.

Jarrin Jay said:

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Your 3rd point is conflating 2 things and is off the mark. IU was built on transfers, not players "in your system for the whole time just putting their head down and grinding it out".

True some IU players came from JMU with Cignetti, but the most important player for IU for 2 years in a row has been a transfer QB. For IU the QB, RBs and WRs almost none of them played for IU last year vs ND in the CFP. Not sure about the OL and D.

IU has 4/5/6 year players at EVERY position, and many/most of those were transfers, some in first year some in second, maybe a couple in year 3. And a 3*** player out of HS that is playing his 4th or 5th year of CFB is going to whip a 5***** true FR or Soph. the vast majority of the time.

What is clear now if it wasn't before is that xfer portal additions are now more important than HS recruiting. HS recruting is still the foundation of the team to build out the roster, but xfer portal is key for adding experienced players at key positions and getting game ready players on the OL and DL that you don't have to develop from a skinny 18 year old for 2-3 years before they can contribute at a high level.

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Yeah, the portal is a big component here

The sec screwed itself by going to 9 games because by the time the season is over, the sec teams tgst make the playoffs are going to be beaten to a pulp and won't get able to make it through the playoff grind

In the 2 years of the expanded playoff, no sec team has made it to the finals and most have had first game exits

Jagman83 said:

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- Have an accurate QB who doesn't panic.

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That's apparently true in college and NFL if you are an Aggie living in Houston

NyAggie said:

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Jarrin Jay said:

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Your 3rd point is conflating 2 things and is off the mark. IU was built on transfers, not players "in your system for the whole time just putting their head down and grinding it out".

True some IU players came from JMU with Cignetti, but the most important player for IU for 2 years in a row has been a transfer QB. For IU the QB, RBs and WRs almost none of them played for IU last year vs ND in the CFP. Not sure about the OL and D.

IU has 4/5/6 year players at EVERY position, and many/most of those were transfers, some in first year some in second, maybe a couple in year 3. And a 3*** player out of HS that is playing his 4th or 5th year of CFB is going to whip a 5***** true FR or Soph. the vast majority of the time.

What is clear now if it wasn't before is that xfer portal additions are now more important than HS recruiting. HS recruting is still the foundation of the team to build out the roster, but xfer portal is key for adding experienced players at key positions and getting game ready players on the OL and DL that you don't have to develop from a skinny 18 year old for 2-3 years before they can contribute at a high level.

---

Yeah, the portal is a big component here

The sec screwed itself by going to 9 games because by the time the dragon is over, the sec teams tgst make the playoffs are going to be beaten to a pulp and won't get able to make it through the playoff grind

In the 2 years of the expanded playoff, no sec team has made it to the finals and most have had first game exits

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It's not fair that we have to fight literal dragons in this conference, no other conferences have to do that. The SEC would have faired much better if half our players weren't still suffering from first degree burns when the playoffs rolled around.

The formula to winning a natty is very simple:

Step 1: win enough games to make the playoffs

Step 2: don't lose in the playoffs

If we had NOT played Notte Dame on the road we wouldn't have made the playoff.

Ugly said:

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NyAggie said:

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Jarrin Jay said:

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Your 3rd point is conflating 2 things and is off the mark. IU was built on transfers, not players "in your system for the whole time just putting their head down and grinding it out".

True some IU players came from JMU with Cignetti, but the most important player for IU for 2 years in a row has been a transfer QB. For IU the QB, RBs and WRs almost none of them played for IU last year vs ND in the CFP. Not sure about the OL and D.

IU has 4/5/6 year players at EVERY position, and many/most of those were transfers, some in first year some in second, maybe a couple in year 3. And a 3*** player out of HS that is playing his 4th or 5th year of CFB is going to whip a 5***** true FR or Soph. the vast majority of the time.

What is clear now if it wasn't before is that xfer portal additions are now more important than HS recruiting. HS recruting is still the foundation of the team to build out the roster, but xfer portal is key for adding experienced players at key positions and getting game ready players on the OL and DL that you don't have to develop from a skinny 18 year old for 2-3 years before they can contribute at a high level.

---

Yeah, the portal is a big component here

The sec screwed itself by going to 9 games because by the time the dragon is over, the sec teams tgst make the playoffs are going to be beaten to a pulp and won't get able to make it through the playoff grind

In the 2 years of the expanded playoff, no sec team has made it to the finals and most have had first game exits

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It's not fair that we have to fight literal dragons in this conference, no other conferences have to do that. The SEC would have faired much better if half our players weren't still suffering from first degree burns when the playoffs rolled around.

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Doh! I hate autocorrect!!

Buy the best team money can buy.

one safe place said:

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Buy the best team money can buy.

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Agreed, billion dollar donor should be on the list.

Jack Boyett said:

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The SEC is not an advantage anymore. Would be better off back in the Big 12.

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This simply is not true. Big 12 teams get ROLLED in the playoffs. Some of it surely has to do with a gap in talent, but I would assume it also has to do with teams not being tested at all until the playoffs.

2015:
- OU lost to Clemson, 37-17

2017:
- OU lost to UGA, 54-48 in 2OT

2018:
- OU lost to Bama, 45-34

2019:
- OU lost to LSU, 63-28

2022:
- TCU beat Michigan
- TCU lost to UGA in the natty, 65-7

2023:
- Texas lost to Washington, 37-31

2024:
- Arizona St. lost to Texas in OT, 39-31

2025:
- Tech lost to Oregon, 23-0

ElephantRider said:

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Literally no reason to ever schedule a hard OOC game, especially with a 9 game SEC schedule. Committee has shown that they don't care.

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Agree, I do think we jumped the gun in going to the 9 game schedule. I think we'll either drop the power 4 requirement or go back to an 8 game schedule within the next four years. While I originally thought this would be to our advantage, after seeing the anti-SEC bias develop (along with "affirmation" by playoff performance), I just don't see the committee giving 3 loss SEC teams the benefit of the doubt over fewer loss teams in other conferences, unless we go to 16, which i'd rather not.

Also, at the end of the day, football is a war of attrition when you're playing so many quality teams week in and week out even if you do have a great season you're going to end up having players compromise just for not being 100% healthy, which leads to not playing your best.

There is no question which conference is the reigning king of college football. Indiana's spectacular national title this week was the third in a row by a Big Ten team, after Michigan and Ohio State.

But when it comes to the long game, the Southeastern Conference is still leading by at least a couple of touchdowns.

Two years ago, SEC and Big Ten football games drew similar television audiences. This season, however, the second campaign since each league expanded, the SEC's average audience has surged by 49% while the Big Ten's has dropped 11%, according to Nielsen. The average regular-season SEC football game now draws 2 million more viewers than the average Big Ten game.

But the ratings chasm also helps explain the Big Ten's urgent push to double in size the College Football playoff to 24 teams. A larger playoff would keep more teams in the title hunt for longer, which the Big Ten hopes would be enough to boost interest in regular-season matchups.

The SEC would prefer a more modest expansion to 16 teams, in part to preserve the drama of its regular season and protect the valuable SEC championship game.

Since expansion, SEC games are more competitive, making for better television. The average margin of victory this season was 11.5 points, the tightest in nearly two decades, according to Stats Perform. The average margin in Big Ten games, meanwhile, was nearly 17 points, slightly up from two years ago.

SEC football also jumped to 4.9 million viewers for regular-season games compared with 2.8 million in the Big Ten.

Sankey attributes the SEC's audience increase to its ardent fan base and a 2024 change in TV partners from CBS to Disney-owned networks ABC and ESPN, which increased the number of games airing on broadcast TV. Stacking SEC double- and triple-headers on ABC also helped build audiences, as opposed to Big Ten games shown across several different networks.

And soon, the SEC will have even more valuable inventory to offer ABC and ESPN. Next fall, each team will play nine conference games, up from eight.

SEC Football Isn't Winning Titles. But There's One Way It's Still Crushing the Big Ten. - WSJ

Sankey doesn't seem to have a coherent plan here.

Going to 9 conference games AND still requiring teams to schedule P4 OOC while resisting expanding the CFP seems counterintuitive.

This year when the SEC CFP teams are reduced because everyone has 2-3 losses, then he'll realize it's time to expand.

The SEC will have 16 of the top 18 in SOS and still have to campaign its way to 4 CFP teams.

Coaching is number one (with coaching it is assumed if they are a good coach they are a good recruiter/portal evaluator)

1. Coaching coaching coaching.
2a. Oline
2b. QB play (Reed has the ability to play better than he did and had to do with #2 although everybody had trouble with that DLine
3. play defense (great tackling) it helps to be elite but if you have 1-3 and tackle well you are going to have a shot. Great tackling defenses are not common these days.

We were way closer than I thought we were after the season. We could have easily done what Miami did had we had better QB play. We were good enough to make a run just had bad luck with seeding.

Don't forget you need all the bad (non)calls to go in your favor.

CC00 said:

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Sankey doesn't seem to have a coherent plan here.

Going to 9 conference games AND still requiring teams to schedule P4 OOC while resisting expanding the CFP seems counterintuitive.

This year when the SEC CFP teams are reduced because everyone has 2-3 losses, then he'll realize it's time to expand.

The SEC will have 16 of the top 18 in SOS and still have to campaign its way to 4 CFP teams.

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Sankey DGAS about an extra team or two in the CFP or in the national championship. A 9 game conference schedule and P4 opponent means way more marquee have during the regular season, and that is more long term negotiating power and money when it comes to licensing and TV than an extra game or two in the CFP.

Get the best players and coach them up. That's it.

Ugly said:

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The updated NIL/transfer portal "rules" have been in place for 4-5 years now. With the exception of a Georgia team that continued on to win it for a second year in a row (and possibly including them), are the winning trends starting to emerge? Here is what is looks like you need to win the Natty based on recent history:

• A weak OOC schedule. No national championship winner has played a P4 team out of conference since 2022 Georgia. This let's your team get settled in and builds confidence without risking significant injury.
• A regular season with a few real challenges surrounded by gimme games. The last three champions have played three teams ranked at the end of the season apiece (most of those top 10 teams), and then mostly feasted on teams they drastically outmatch otherwise. This allows you to give your complete (i.e. multi-week) focus to these big games, and gives you experience with top-level teams without beating yourself to a bloody pulp by the end of the season. Long runs of wins against easier opponents also help build confidence (see Texas A&M during the middle of this year for more examples of this).
• A team full of super-seniors, sprinkled with some key transfer portal additions. In this age of NIL portal, having a 22-23 year old that has been in your system for the whole time just putting their head down and grinding it out seems to be winning over a highly ranked player jumping around to a different team each year and then jetting for the NFL after year three. Obviously this is not true for every example, but the trends seem to suggest that experience is starting to beat star rankings, at least slightly.
• This should be obvious, but injury luck at key positions is massive (which is why the first two bullets are evn more important). The last championship team to start more than one QB throughout the season was 2021 Georgia, and that was really more of a case of letting you QB competition drag into the first few weeks of the season.
• Other important items aren't as obvious or haven't changed much, like coaching staffs that are great at developing players, recruiting teams that excel at talent evaluation, and organizations good at building a solid culture that is resistant to high player turnover year-to-year.
• Star-rankings are not un-important, as teams with high talent ratings still tend to do better overall than teams that do not by a significant amount. However, the ultimate champion has not been well-predicted by star rankings the past few years. According to 247's composite team talent rating, the last three national champions were #72, #3, and #14. With the exception of Indiana this year, each needed to have a highly rated team, but it is not a given that a top 5 talent team will play another top 5 talent team to win it all, like it was for much of the 10's.

Anything else?

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If you removed the phrase "sprinkled with some key transfer portal additions" this entire list could have been posted 20 years ago and been just as valid.

The formula:

QBR for the National Champion QB by year from 2026 down to 2016:

88. tbd but will be NFL
89. NFL
88. NFL starter
87. NFL
87. NFL
96. NFL
94. NFL top 5 QB
81. NFL long time stater
83. NFL Super Bowl champ. NC game win by backup who also is long time NFL starter
84. NFL long time starter

Mr.Milkshake said:

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The formula:

QBR for the National Champion QB by year from 2026 down to 2016:

88. tbd but will be NFL
89. NFL
88. NFL starter
87. NFL
87. NFL
96. NFL
94. NFL top 5 QB
81. NFL long time stater
83. NFL Super Bowl champ. NC game win by backup who also is long time NFL starter
84. NFL long time starter

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Necessary but not sufficient. Many more teams had QBs with high QBRs but didn't win the NC.

TyperWoods said:

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Hmmm...I just thought it was score more than your opponent every game.

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Those are the old rules. Style Points + Viewers/advertising revenue + Scoreboard = True Score.

Quote:

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This should be obvious, but injury luck at key positions is massive (which is why the first two bullets are evn more important). The last championship team to start more than one QB throughout the season was 2021 Georgia, and that was really more of a case of letting you QB competition drag into the first few weeks of the season.

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This is one of the main reasons our admin was so ****ing stupid to vote for a 9th conference game. Even a ****ty Auburn team is very physical. This will result in more injuries on our top teams.

So
Insanely
Stupid

SchizoAg said:

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Mr.Milkshake said:

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The formula:

QBR for the National Champion QB by year from 2026 down to 2016:

88. tbd but will be NFL
89. NFL
88. NFL starter
87. NFL
87. NFL
96. NFL
94. NFL top 5 QB
81. NFL long time stater
83. NFL Super Bowl champ. NC game win by backup who also is long time NFL starter
84. NFL long time starter

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Necessary but not sufficient. Many more teams had QBs with high QBRs but didn't win the NC.

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You cannot with the NC without an elite QB. Even those guys in the low 80s…. Deshaun, hurts/tua, Lawrence