After a day to shake off being upset by the result, I just have to commend Juve's performance.

It was the kind of game where nearly everything was going against them but they played their asses off and won anyway.

They had to make two separate subs in the 1st half due to injuries, including one to their captain. They regroup at halftime and punch back to level the game 1-1, but then their GK gets sent off with a red for handling outside the box (he prevented a clear cut chance though). On the ensuing free kick, Juve defender handles in the box so now it's a penalty.

Then somehow - inexplicably, Juve decided that they were gonna play harder than they had all game, even though they were down 2-1 with just 10 men and 30 mins left. Heck of a comeback for them - on the road, no less.

And McKinney played the whole match and looked pretty good too. He should've had an assist but the ball hit the post.

Just popped in to say. Hala Madrid y nada mas!

Raphina is on a whole other level right now

Just saw the ridiculous Haaland goal hot damn

LOL...a couple of dunces playing for Aston Villa. Guess it's not really Martinez's fault but I don't like him.

https://dubz.co/c/ab91b2

Mpaypal with an absolutely awful effort on that penalty take. Kelleher saves it easily. On current form, Mbappe is not close to discussion on best players in the world. Some players fold under the weight of the Los Blancos jersey. He's got a long way to go.

Salah is feet wide on his penalty.

Tillman with a brace and Pepi scores the winner in stoppage time for a 3-2 win for PSV

My team is out already, so for the sake of schadenfreude, here's an elimination watch as we enter the last 2 matchdays.

According to models I've seen, it's virtually certain that reaching 11 points will keep a team safe from elimination, and 10 points is highly likely to be safe. For now, I'll go with 10 points as the number needed. A team may advance with 9 or even 8, but if I were a fan of a team in this zone, I wouldn't feel good about less than 10.

Mathematically eliminated (currently more than 6 points away from 24th place)
36 - 0 pts - Young Boys (Pot 3)
35 - 0 pts - Bratislava (Pot 4)
34 - 0 pts - Leipzig (Pot 1)

Virtually eliminated (can't get to 10 points and need miracles for 9 or 8)
33 - 2 pts - Bologna (Pot 4)
32 - 3 pts - Salzburg (Pot 3)
31 - 3 pts - Red Star (Pot 3)
30 - 3 pts - Girona (Pot 4)
29 - 3 pts - Sturm Graz (Pot 4)

Teams that need a miracle, currently on 4 pts and need two wins:
28 - 4 pts - Sparta Praha (Pot 4)
27 - 4 pts - Shakhtar Donetsk (Pot 2)

Now for the realistic candidates:
26 - 7 pts - Stuttgart (Pot 4). They have a very winnable game against Bratislava on the road this week and then a home match against PSG.
25 - 7 pts - PSG (Pot 1). Tough schedule against teams that also need results. Home vs City tomorrow and then Stuttgart on the road
24 - 8 pts - Dinamo Zagreb (Pot 3). Currently safe, but a very tough schedule. At Arsenal and then home against Milan. Even worse for them is the fact that since the two 7 pt teams above play each other, at least one of them is going to have 8 pts and Zagreb will lose a GD tie.
23 - 8 pts - PSV (Pot 3). Winnable game against Red Star today. Home game against a Liverpool that has already clinched a bye might not be horrible either.
22 - 8 pts - Man City (Pot 1). Face PSG on the road, and then Brugge at home. They're probably safe but this is a wild year for them.
21 - 9 pts - Celtic (Pot 3). Highly winnable game at home against Young Boys, which may well be "must win" because it's Villa on the road after that.
20 - 9 pts - Real Madrid (Pot 1). Surely they're good for at least 1 point against Salzburg and Brest, right? Right? ESPN says there's only a 5.2% chance they drop. Oddly enough, and perhaps this speaks in favor of the new format, they are much more likely (15.7%) to win out and rise to the Top 8 and clinch a bye.

Again, 10 points may not actually prove to be safe. For Brugge especially if their GD keeps going down and with Juve and City on tap, that seems likely. But I think 10 will be enough and PSG and Zagreb don't make it.

On the flip side of the table, only Liverpool has clinched a Top 8 spot, so everyone else is still fighting to get that bye.

I know it will be an ask, but if Arsenal can come out of tomorrow with a W, I think they can clinch a top 8 spot also.

Too many 13+ pt teams for any team except Barca to clinch Top 8 this week (and that is looking unlikely now thanks to mistakes by their GK).

PSV doing good work on the road and they're almost certainly in the playoff now barring a total meltdown in the 2nd half.

Top 8 clinched!

That was a wild comeback! I stopped paying attention at 4-2.

Lots of other Top 8 candidates flopped yesterday. Will be interesting to see who takes advantage of that today. Regardless, there will be 6 spots up for grabs on the last matchday, which is pretty cool. On one hand, this new format is certainly doing a good job of keeping games relevant down the stretch. On the other hand, it's harder to keep track of who these teams are playing so I feel more disconnected this year. Or maybe I just had a busy fall and am struggling to catch up now.

deadbq03 said:

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That was a wild comeback! I stopped paying attention at 4-2.

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the game was so ugly and at the same time absolutely epic

Well I chose 10 instead of 11 partly out of laziness, but clearly I should've picked 11 or maybe even 12.

12 pts is now 100% safe. 11 is probably safe but it's not guaranteed. 10 is downright scary now.

Last matchday of the new league phase is upon us. All games are on Weds at 2:00 to prevent shenanigans.

Almost all the games matter because the draws for the playoff and the round of 16 will be based on seeds, where they will pair two high seeds with two low seeds and then draw.

For example, for the Playoff, seed 9 will play either seed 23 or 24 (and then seed 10 would play the other one). And so on to the middle where seeds 15 or 16 will play seeds 17 or 18.

So even for teams like Liverpool and Barca who have clinched the Round of 16, maintaining their seed theoretically matters because it means they'll be playing a middle of the pack game (they'll draw a winner of that 15-18 grouping above). I say "theoretically" though because it's possible that a team like Brest or Feyennord might finish 10th and a team like Real Madrid or Bayern might finish 15th, so getting a better draw on paper might result in getting a tougher opponent.

For the teams at risk of elimination, here's what needs to happen...

27 - 7 pts - Shahktar Donetsk - It's mathematically possible, but it's such a longshot it's not worth wasting time on.
26 - 8 pts - Dinamo Zagreb - needs to win @ Milan and needs a couple of losses ahead of them. Their -8 GD is so bad they're likely to lose any tiebreaker.
25 - 8 pts - Man City - needs to win a home game against Brugge (likely). City still control own destiny for all intents and purposes thanks to Zagreb's horrible GD and the fact that Stuttgart and PSG play each other so they either draw at 11 and City would win the tiebreak on GD over either of them (again, if City wins and they draw, or there's a loser stuck at 10 pts.
24 - 10 pts - Stuttgart - home game vs. PSG. They really need to push for a win because their -1 GD isn't kind to them if there's an ugly tie at 11 pts - but a draw or even a loss could also see them advance if other results go their way.
23 - 10 pts - Sporting - home game against Bologna... ought to be pretty easy. I think they win and seal the deal, but they would advance with even a draw, again thanks to Stuttgart vs. PSG and Stuttgart's bad GD.
22 - 10 pts - PSG - away @ Stuttgart. Will advance with a draw but Stuttgart will be going for the W so they probably need to do the same to avoid an upset on the road.
21 - 10 pts - Benfica - away @ Juventus - this will be a tough task, but they will advance if they can draw (again, the Stuttgart GD) and they need to fight hard for it given the likelihood of City beating Brugge.
20 - 11 pts - Brugge - away @ City. They have the worst GD (-2) in the pack of real contenders (City and better), so they need to hope there isn't an ugly tie at 11 pts. I think they'll be safe but it is scarier for them than others on this list because a loss seems so likely.
19 - 11 pts - PSV - home vs. Liverpool. They aren't yet officially safe, but it looks pretty good. They have the best GD of this whole bunch of teams, so losing isn't bad as long as they can keep it close.

Would be hilarious and awesome to see both City and PSG get dumped from the competition, but that's incredibly unlikely to happen. My somewhat bold prediction is that Stuttgart wins (and is the only underdog among these matchups to get a result) so elimination comes down to GD between PSG and Benfica.

should be some fun ones today

PSV could easily get a result against Liverpool and lock up advancement. LFC is leaving 9-10 starters at home. There's zero motivation to win the league phase. Should be a very fun day of matches though....lots of drama. Love all games happening at once.

2:00...

I really wish I could play hooky this afternoon

eiggA2002 said:

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PSV could easily get a result against Liverpool and lock up advancement. LFC is leaving 9-10 starters at home. There's zero motivation to win the league phase. Should be a very fun day of matches though....lots of drama. Love all games happening at once.

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Yeah Liverpool has guaranteed they'll finish at least 2nd, and there's no difference between 1st and 2nd in terms of the next draw.

Me watching all 18 Champions League games tonight pic.twitter.com/jPYmDyepgw

— Troll Football (@TrollFootball) January 29, 2025

That's what the Golazo Show is for.

They've added Jamie, Thierry, and Micah today.

So many goals already. But I guess that's to be expected.

deadbq03 said:

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That's what the Golazo Show is for.

They've added Jamie, Thierry, and Micah today.

So many goals already. But I guess that's to be expected.

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I can do redzone but never have enjoyed Golazo for some reason.

The commentator they normally have sitting with Nico is a beating to listen to.

This is way better today with Nico and these 3. Also today there's so many games/goals they can't bother showing too many non-goals.

PSG taking care of business.

And Dinamo has now leapfrogged City and Stuttgart.

Musah sent off on a really dumb 2nd yellow.

did Pepi touch it? I think so, just ever so slightly pic.twitter.com/J0xuyeIkOt

— scuffed (@scuffedpod) January 29, 2025

🇺🇸 Nice shoulder assist by Ricardo Pepi, his first in the Champions League this season 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/f3lNOWBUOW

— American Ultras Talk (@ameriultrastalk) January 29, 2025

Yunus Musah red card 🟥🙃 pic.twitter.com/yfb2HH1lhi

— USMNT NATION (@USMNTvsHaters) January 29, 2025

Weston McKennie, Juventus captain 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/8Cn7pBpGWS

— USMNT Source (@usmntsource) January 29, 2025

WHAT A GOAL BY CHRISTIAN PULISIC 🫡🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/3ISourEhDM

— USMNT NATION (@USMNTvsHaters) January 29, 2025

Draw on Friday.

Here are some of the possible matchups. I'm only gonna do teams that clearly have fans on this board (and/or teams with USMNT players):

#10 Dortmund - Playoff: #23 Sporting or #24 Brugge; if adv. to Knockout: #7 Lille or #8 Aston Villa
#11 Real Madrid - Playoff: #21 Celtic or #22 Man City; if adv. to Knockout: #5 Atletico Madrid or #6 Leverkusen
#12 Bayern - Playoff: #21 Celtic or #22 Man City; if adv. to Knockout: #5 Atletico Madrid or #6 Leverkusen
#13 Milan - Playoff: #19 Feyenoord or #20 Juventus; if adv. to Knockout: #3 Arsenal or #4 Inter
#14 PSV - Playoff: #19 Feyenoord or #20 Juventus; if adv. to Knockout: #3 Arsenal or #4 Inter
...
#20 Juventus - Playoff: #13 Milan or #14 PSV; if adv. to Knockout: #3 Arsenal or #4 Inter
#21 Celtic - Playoff: #11 Real Madrid or #12 Bayern; if adv. to Knockout: #5 Atletico Madrid or #6 Leverkusen
#22 Man. City - Playoff: #11 Real Madrid or #12 Bayern; if adv. to Knockout: #5 Atletico Madrid or #6 Leverkusen

For the teams advancing to knockouts:
#1 Liverpool - will face #15 PSG, #16 Benfica, #17 Monaco, or #18 Brest
#2 Barcelona - will face #15 PSG, #16 Benfica, #17 Monaco, or #18 Brest
#3 Arsenal - will face #13 Milan, #14 PSV, #19 Feyenoord, or #20 Juventus

As far as I'm aware of, we don't have fans of any other teams. (And I left out Monaco because Flo will still be injured).

Today was a fun day

This format has grown on me

gambochaman said:

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Today was a fun day

This format has grown on me

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There's some good, for sure, but also I think they need to revise.

It's very complicated. Part of why I'm wasting my time with these write ups is so I can understand the damned thing.

It's very hard as a fan to keep track of a 36 team table. I'd like to see them split it in half. They could then ensure that there's no repeat games in the knockout because they could make it cross-table.

Also (and independent of my idea above) I agree with wangus' comments on the Arsenal thread. This half-measure compromise of using seeds but pairing them and still having a "draw" (really they could just flip a coin) is dumb. Do one or the other… either go straight seed where 9 plays 24, 10 plays 23 etc… or draw a line and put 9-16 in one pot and 17-24 in another and do an old school draw where you can ensure that there's no repeat games and none from the same country. I'd honestly prefer the latter for the reason of ensuring some teams don't play each other, but I'd appreciate a straight draw too… this middle ground we have now is dumb though.