Before the Spurs fans jet off for the offseason (I know not all of you will but a good bit of you will), I'm wondering What do you do with this team next year?

I think you're almost in the same boat with Ginobili as the Rockets are with TMac. You have no idea what to expect, but he's really never going to be the same player he was 2 years ago. However, whether he's done makes a huge difference I think on how you approach your offseason.

I think the team you had at the end of the season is a 7-8 seed in the West. With a 60-70% Ginobili, maybe they are a 5 seed.

More than anything, you have to add some athleticism. I would say getting a Von Wafer type player would help that team immensely. The problem is, I think Popovich would eventually bury Wafer on the bench when he went through a crappy spell. I just don't know if there's anything you can do. You need to get younger and more athletic but your coach won't play and develop young guys.

Lastly, Duncan seems to finally trending downward. And it wasn't so much his offense and rebounding, which I think should stay pretty solid as he ages. It was his defense. His defense was not good, especially his defensive positioning. Maybe it was just a bad series, regardless, I just didn't see the old Duncan on defense.

So what do you do? Is there anything you can do, especially with no cap room?

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I think you're almost in the same boat with Ginobili as the Rockets are with TMac.

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Totally disagree here. Unlike Tmac, Ginobili's future performance is entirely dependent upon a medical diagnosis. If he can stand up on his leg and play, he'll contribute significantly. The same can't be said for Tmac. In fact they're exact opposite situations. Ginobili has spent the last 2 years playing injured/hurt because he didn't want to miss time with the team. Tmac has spent the last 2 years using ticky-tack injuries as an excuse to quit. The Rockets are better off without Tmac....the Spurs are most certainly NOT better off without Ginobili.

The answer to your "what now" question is likely to be answered (or, possibly, not answered) completely from within the organization. If Ian Mahinmi can finally overcome his "issues" (whatever they happen to be) and take the court, he MIGHT be what they are looking for down low, at least defensively. All indications point to him being a fairly athletic big, so maybe he can come in and contribute some things that have been missing since Robinson retired.
The other wildcard is Tiago Splitter. There are rumors that his European club might be willing to cut him loose cheaply. I doubt it, but if there is a chance of that happening, it would be a big help.

Pop finally pulled his head out of his ass and gave George Hill some valuable minutes in these last two games. That's a good sign for next year; Hill got bench-buried late in this season after showing A LOT of promise early on. He could be that Von Wafer-like X-factor if he's given regular minutes in the rotation next year. I've said all along if that happens Mason will be a better player as well. Mason's best games this year occurred around the same time Hill was playing the backup role.

If the planets align, next year doesn't looks so bad for the Spurs:

Parker/Hill (potential to be the best 1-2 PG combo in the league)
Ginobili/Mason (if 100%, a very strong 1-2 SG rotation
Udoka/Bowen (obviously a weak spot...has been since Sean Elliot retired)
Duncan/Gooden (another year under his belt as a Spurs and Gooden could be a major contributor)
Mahinmi/Splitter (obviously a pipe dream, but if it happens, and both players live up to their hype, it would be a SERIOUS upgrade)

not sold on drew gooden. i'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he could use another year, but i haven't been too impressed with him thus far. maybe i'm expecting too much.

the spurs need a big man to play alongside duncan who can block shots.

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not sold on drew gooden. i'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he could use another year, but i haven't been too impressed with him thus far. maybe i'm expecting too much.

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I think you're expecting too much. Gooden has show flashes of offensive brilliance. He is also a pretty mobile defender. He would be a very serviceable player if he wasn't expected to create his own shot. I think a backup unit including Gooden/Hill/Mason OR Gooden/Hill/Ginobili could be very effective on the offensive end.

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the spurs need a big man to play alongside duncan who can block shots.

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Agreed. Unless Mahinmi and/or Splitter (a) shows up and (b) is a VERY pleasant surprise next year, the Spurs team defense will not be that much better than it was this year.

geebus we have some holes at 3, 4 and 5...argh

i'm sure duncan wouldn't mind it either if he got to play more forward than always getting beat up at center

Spurs are the chicken minus the head right now.

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Totally disagree here. Unlike Tmac, Ginobili's future performance is entirely dependent upon a medical diagnosis.

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More than anything I was comparing the fact that we really don't know whether they can come back relatively healthy or if they are done. I wasn't really comparing them as far as playing style.

I think the Rockets and Spurs both have big decisions to make at the 2 and 5 spot.

Both Artest and Wafer are FA and if McGrady can't come back and at least be a contributor (nobody expects or wants him to be a #1 or #2 option anymore) then they almost have to sign at least one of those guys. Same with the spurs and Ginobili, if he can't come back then they have a huge glaring hole.

At the 5 spot. Neither Yao nor Duncan can play big minutes and stay healthy or be effective come playoff time. Both teams will have to address this in the offseason.

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More than anything I was comparing the fact that we really don't know whether they can come back relatively healthy or if they are done.

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I understand that. I'm sorry if the point I made was not clear. Tmac is done. Don't wait for the doctors to tell you. He's done. His "injury" is largely mental.
In Ginobili's case, his injury could be career ending, or it could be something he comes back from, 100% healthy. It all comes down to the medical diagnosis. You don't have to worry about all of the emotional/mental/"2-weeks off for personal training" issues with Ginobili. He is going to be the FIRST person to clear himself to play next year. Personally I don't think that is the case with Tmac.

[This message has been edited by MassAggie97 (edited 4/29/2009 10:59a).]

I don't really think Ginobili is ever going to be a major factor again. I hope I'm wrong because he is a great ballplayer, but he has been playing all-out, year round, all over the world for years now.

PG - TP and Hill have that position covered nicely

SG - Mason is a great shooter, but still a second string player at this point (IMO). Spurs need a guy who can create his own shot.

SF - The Spurs have never had much offense at the 3, so I suppose it isn't terribly necessary, but it would still be nice. I think the main thing is to move on from Udoka because he doesn't give us much at that spot. Bowen is great, but getting old.

PF - Duncan has a couple years left in the tank, just not years that he will be the focus of both the offense and defense. He is still smart, can still score and rebound, but his rotations on defense are slow and he doesn't seem to take over games like he used to. Gooden can take minutes at the spot, but obviously can't fill Duncan's shoes.

C - We need a center to hold the defense together. Bonner is not a center and it's a joke that he even starts.



The main thing is that this team is old and a lot of those old players were only worth having because they fit roles. The team has lost its old shape, so not only are the role players old but they don't really fit that well anymore.

It's time to hit it big in the draft or FA or resign ourselves to the inevitable.

[This message has been edited by aero ag 2010 (edited 4/29/2009 11:25a).]

i think the spurs should go after a veteran center in a trade or offseason acquisition and push for a championship for the next 1-2 years.

next season is all about getting Sheed for bargain basement and Splitter/Mahimi being worth a damn- that's it- the spurs can't do much else

Agree, the Spurs should try to gear up for a championship in the next 1-3 years.

After that, Duncan will be a shell of his former self, and the Spurs will have to make drastic moves to stay relevant

gooden is a nice pickup, but not nearly enough. you need more.

i'm not sold on finley, bowen, bonner, or udoku anymore. and mason seems like a good role player, not main threat. Hill is atheletic, and i'm not sure of his outside game.

what happened to all the Spurs bangers? why can't they get like a chris wilcox or someone who will knock some heads in the trenches, taking some of the beating off of duncan.

also, how long will ginobli last? you might wanna move him, i still think you can get some nice value from him.

I don't see the Spurs re-signing Gooden. He's going to want a multi-year deal (probably atleast 3 years). The Spurs will probably try to pick up Sheed over the summer, but this concerns me. His game is declining quickly. His injuries are a concern as well.

But the way it looks right now the Spurs won't be able to make a splash until 2010. The only way they can get anything of value this off season is if they trade their expiring contracts (Mason,Bonner,Thomas) to a team looking to unload a multiyear contract for cap relief purposes.

And I'm not really banking on Splitter coming or Mahinmi being that big of a factor.

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I think you're almost in the same boat with Ginobili as the Rockets are with TMac.

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Not quite. Manu still helps the team when he plays. TMac clearly hurts the Rockets with his lack of ability, lack of shot selection, ball hogging and attitude. TMac is closer to Starbury than Manu is to TMac.

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I think the team you had at the end of the season is a 7-8 seed in the West. With a 60-70% Ginobili, maybe they are a 5 seed.

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It is hard to say where people will end up, because I know the Rockets have a lot of change coming (Artest a FA, TMAC?, Wafer?) Boozer is probably leaving Utah, Phoenix is blowing up, Dallas is a HUGE question mark (do they keep Kidd? Do they let him leave and let JJ take over as starting PG? Will Cuban blow up the team? Ending Contracts for Josh Howard, Erick Dampier and Stackhouse can be traded for the 7.5mm then cut by the receiving team, saving them 5mm.)

There are too many variables right now in the West to really get an accurate placement of the Spurs. But assuming:
1. Duncan takes the offseason off, and gets healthy and is able to continue at 19/10
2. Manu gets healthy and is 80% of what he was 2 years ago.
3. Spurs don't do anything drastic in the offseason, just continue to develop Hill and Mason, Mahinmi plays a small roll and Gooden is resigned I think the Spurs win 52-56 games next year, assuming relative good health.

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More than anything, you have to add some athleticism.

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This has been the case since Stephen Jackson left.

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I would say getting a Von Wafer type player would help that team immensely.

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Absolutely. But we need someone more consistent at SG than Von Wafer. We need Mason to be consistent or to find the jewel FA pickup or late draft pick.

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Lastly, Duncan seems to finally trending downward. And it wasn't so much his offense and rebounding, which I think should stay pretty solid as he ages. It was his defense. His defense was not good, especially his defensive positioning. Maybe it was just a bad series, regardless, I just didn't see the old Duncan on defense.

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Duncan's knee problems contributed to a big lack of mobility that was very apparent. Give him more rest during the season, play him 29MPG and give him back to backs off and he probably is a lot healthier in the playoffs.



The Spurs have about 65mm on the books and the luxury tax line they have to stay under will probably be about 69mm. That gives them about 4mm to play with. Bowen can be cut saving 2mm.

Spurs are weakest at SF and Post.


Free agents: Finley, Gooden, Vaughn, Udoka, Marcus Williams, Mensa-Bonsu

If they all walk, we have
Post: Duncan/Bonner/Oberto/Mahinmi/Thomas
Wing: Bowen/Manu/Mason
Point: Parker/Hill

I think the Spurs are set at PG. They need big wings and posts.


Available Free Agents that would suit our needs and are somewhat realistic:
Josh Childress (europe) (Restricted)
Ben Gordon (only for a S&T)
Anderson Varejao (if he would take the MLE and if the Spurs would give him the MLE)
Gerald Green- if you thought he could be a Von Wafer, which I am convinced he cannot.
James Singleton
Chris Andersen - I would love to get him, despite all his problems. Seems like he would be a solid PF/C to split time. PLayed great D this year, has ups, has something to prove.
Rasheed Wallace - already rumored that he is coming to SA.
Antonio McDyess - I bet he goes to Cleveland
Ron Artest - I wanted him years ago
Von Wafer - I bet he stays
Trevor Ariza - I am hoping he bolts from the Lakers anyway. Teach him to shoot and he is deadly.
Lamar Odom - doubt he stays in LA.
Jamario Moon - Would love to teach him some D, Bowen Style - he is restricted
Jarvis Hayes could be a good pick up to start at SF
Matt Barnes and Grant Hill could come.
Channing Frye would be a nice compliment to Duncan.
Marion has a bad attitude and has lost a step, but maybe he takes a small contract from the Spurs to be with a contender and prove himself again. He would be a huge upgrade at SF and could spend time at PF when we go small.
When Boozer leaves Utah, Korver could get out of his contract to be a FA. He would be a great SF for the Spurs. Memo could opt out, but he isn't leaving 9mm on the table.


If the Knicks refuse to give contracts out past 2010, David Lee and Nate Robinson could be available.


it is possible that teams like the 76ers and Phoenix would want to blow up and start over. Could be some valuable pieces floating around (Iggy, Amare, Thaddeus Young, JRich.)
If Kerr decided that Phoenix was ready to kill the team and start from scratch, save money and stockpile picks:
Manu+Bowen+Oberto+Hill+Cash+2Picks for Amare. That gives the Suns tons of ending money in 2010, two picks and a good PG prospect. Hell throw in Splitter and Mahinmi's rights. They can cut Bowen and save 2mm right now. Yeah, its not gonna happen, but I dont know how far off it is.



So yeah, slim pickings.

And the Spurs gave their 1st round pick to the OKC Bandits for Kurt Thomas.

What do you think Rasheed will get? It will be interesting to see what happens with Boozer...that could set the tone for everyone else.

I dont think anyone is going to be a spender this offseason. Paul Allen and Mark Cuban MIGHT if they get the right pieces.

I think we will see a log of guys sign a 1 year deal to prove themselves and take a run at the 2010 summer. Owners also will like that approach, because they will better see what can happen with the economy and plan for next summer.

Does SA really have the pockets to go out and spend a bunch? I honestly don't know. Also the luxury tax line is rumored to come down in the offseason to help prop up some franchises that might fail otherwise.

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Does SA really have the pockets to go out and spend a bunch? I honestly don't know. Also the luxury tax line is rumored to come down in the offseason to help prop up some franchises that might fail otherwise.

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Read my post above. I covered this.

You didn't really have a firm $$$ figure speculated.

Next year is going to look a whole lot more like MLB rather than the NFL in terms of salary parity. Where do you project the budget for SA more, same, less?

Would Duncan take a pay cut? That sure would help...

Duncan did take a "pay-cut" when he signed a new deal. Really wasn't much of one though.

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You didn't really have a firm $$$ figure speculated.

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Really?

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The Spurs have about 65mm on the books and the luxury tax line they have to stay under will probably be about 69mm. That gives them about 4mm to play with. Bowen can be cut saving 2mm.

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A few things

1) I see everyone including Splitter. Well, I don't see that happening because even if he can be had for cheaper, that's still going to eat up a ton of the Spurs remaining budget.

2) I understand the talk about Sheed, Hill, etc. signing for cheap. But are they really going to sign for the minimum if someone like say Cleveland, Bulls, Boston, etc. offers $3-4 million. And the Spurs can't offer that type of money. I see them going to a contender, but a contender with more money than the Spurs. It's not like the Spurs are a lock for the western conference finals like they have been the last decade, they are as big of a question mark as all the other teams now so the desire to sign there for a title run will start losing some of its lure.

3) The athleticism has been lacking for awhile, but you could always count on the Big 3 to make up for it. With Ginobili a huge question mark and Duncan no longer the dominant big man, it becomes a huge issue.

4)If they all walk, we have
Post: Duncan/Bonner/Oberto/Mahinmi/Thomas
Wing: Bowen/Manu/Mason
Point: Parker/Hill

Ok so Mahinmi is the glaring spot I see, they absolutely have to have production out of him next year. Especially if you want Duncan to be logging under 30 minutes.
Second, this looks alot like the team that got rocked in the first round this year. Substitute Manu for Finley, which is reasonable because of the question marks with Manu and it seems like the same exact team with the same weaknesses. The only ones who may improve in the offseason are Hill, Parker, and Mahinmi.

I just have a hard time seeing a 50 win team with that lineup. Look at how piss poor that bench was late in the season. I don't see it getting better

1 if splitter does come over, he gets the rookie scale contract. it technically doesn't eat into our caproom since we are over the cap.

2 manu at 80% for 70 games is better than finley, without a question.

mason may still get better

What I would probably do is call the Clippers, who should be in massive salary dump mode in the offseason and see if I could get either Al Thorton or Eric Gordon and DeAndre Jordan if I took on the Kaman contract. Yeah, you would be getting rid of some of your 2010 flexibility but I think the Spurs are at the point in their franchise where you can't be wasting any more years. Duncan only has so many left.

So you would get rid of Bowen, Oberto, Thomas, Maybe one more contract and taking on Kaman, Jordan, and Thorton(I think he would be the preference). Clippers get about $20 million off their payroll in 2010 and 2011.

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Totally disagree here. Unlike Tmac, Ginobili's future performance is entirely dependent upon a medical diagnosis. If he can stand up on his leg and play, he'll contribute significantly. The same can't be said for Tmac. In fact they're exact opposite situations. Ginobili has spent the last 2 years playing injured/hurt because he didn't want to miss time with the team. Tmac has spent the last 2 years using ticky-tack injuries as an excuse to quit. The Rockets are better off without Tmac....the Spurs are most certainly NOT better off without Ginobili.

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This is simply not accurate. McGrady has been as injured or more injured than Manu the last two years with far more elements. He just handles it in the press differently and gets a different reputation. When McGrady played this year, he WAS playing injured. It was obvious because of his lack of lift and explosion that he's demonstrated before. He obviously needed some surgery, it was just a matter of when. Let's not pretend like McGrady never rushed back early from an injury. He did it all the time, many times stupidly and prolonging his issues. He has to prove to people he's not soft, but at the same time he never gets healthy.

Besides, like Poppa said, both the Rockets and the Spurs best chances for late playoff runs is praying that their older players with tons of miles on their body are healthy for the playoffs -- it's a crapshoot. Do you play that game all the way to the bottom or do you shake things up? I personally prefer to just ride my team out until it completely dies, get a couple nice lottery picks, THEN build for the future. I don't want to shuffle our roster and kill salary cap flexibility for the future to try to stay a 5-8 seed in the playoffs for a couple more years.

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Not quite. Manu still helps the team when he plays. TMac clearly hurts the Rockets with his lack of ability, lack of shot selection, ball hogging and attitude. TMac is closer to Starbury than Manu is to TMac.

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When healthy, McGrady helped the Rockets close a 22 game winning streak without Yao and with Rafer as the second best player on his team. When he wasn't healthy and didn't have lift or explosion, his game deteriorated... along with the fact that he couldn't practice or play in games regularly. It's just like saying that Yao hurt the Rockets when he played because of his lack of athleticism and that's why we did better last year when he was hurt -- that was definitely true when we played the Jazz, but obviously Yao is a great player. Even though Yao isn't dominating the scoreboard in this series, he's controlled the Blazers with his presense on offense and what he's forced them to do defensively to open up thigns for other people. Yao has good matchups and bad matchups, but he's obviously a valuable player for us.

Now, I don't think yao and mcgrady have great chemistry together. I think they predicate different playing styles. McGrady can be a pretty nifty player in the high pick and roll because he is such a strong and willing passer who can lift and get his shot whenever he wants. Yao is great to establish an inside-out game and creates matchup issues for everybody in the league on offense. I'm not sure those mesh and I think when we stick to just one offense, we're usually better. I actually found myself missing McGrady last night watching Artest, because Artest tried to be McGrady but just isnt' as good at handles and passing. McGrady can make such tough passes look easy and can really maneuver in traffic when willing/able. Artest just... can't.

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What I would probably do is call the Clippers, who should be in massive salary dump mode in the offseason and see if I could get either Al Thorton or Eric Gordon and DeAndre Jordan if I took on the Kaman contract. Yeah, you would be getting rid of some of your 2010 flexibility but I think the Spurs are at the point in their franchise where you can't be wasting any more years. Duncan only has so many left.

So you would get rid of Bowen, Oberto, Thomas, Maybe one more contract and taking on Kaman, Jordan, and Thorton(I think he would be the preference). Clippers get about $20 million off their payroll in 2010 and 2011.

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Absolutely.


I go further:
Spurs Trade:
Ginobili (10.75mm ending)
Bowen (4mm ending, can be cut to save 2mm)
Oberto (3.5mm ending)
Bonner (3.25mm ending)
2 draft picks
3mm cash
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Total: 20.75, of which 18.75 has to be paid, 2mm of which can be saved.

Clippers trade:
Camby: 7.65mm ending
Kaman: 10.4mm, 11.3, 12.2
Eric Gordon: 2.89, two years of team options
Al Thorton: 1.9, one year of team option
Dre Jordan: .8
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23.64 total

That works numbers wise.

The Clippers cut Bowen, saving them 2mm. The difference between what they had to pay the outgoing players and the incoming players is 4.89mm. Add the 3mm that the Spurs can give them to do the trade, and they just saved nearly 8mm this year, plus 17.9mm next year (assuming they exercised the options on the contracts, which they would have) and 16mm the following year.

This trade saves the Clippers 42mm over 3 years.

AND, the Clippers would only have 39mm on the books for the summer of 2010, meaning they have cap space for a free agent.


Now the Spurs lineup is:
Kaman/Camby/Jordan
Duncan/Kurt Thomas/Mahinmi
Thornton/Roger Mason
Gordon/Roger Mason
Parker/George Hill

That is a killer team. Add some young guy who can play 2/3 with half of the MLE and you are done for the offseason. (Jarvis Hayes? Jamario Moon? Trevor Ariza)


Too bad Presti isn't GM of the Clippers.

[This message has been edited by Guitarsoup (edited 4/29/2009 8:26p).]

aren't you losing ginobili in your scenario?

Yeah, mistake. Used to writing it.

I'd have rather the Spurs stuck with Pops Mensa-Bonsu than wasting their time with Gooden. Mensa-Bonsu brought athleticism, ENERGY, boards, and physical play in the paint. Popovich needs the patience to teach an inexperienced player the ropes of the Spurs defensive system.

Popovich's and Buford's hard-ons for journeyman vets left the Spurs with a bench (and half a starting line-up, after Ginobili's injury) of no-energy players and non-scorers. Mensa Bonsu isn't going to create his own shot, but he'll get his ass to the boards and clean up the mess. I'd take that 7 days a week and twice on Sundays.

[This message has been edited by Adam87inSA (edited 4/29/2009 10:04p).]

Pops is an extremely raw player who gives up a lot of height. He only played during garbage time too. I don't think he's what the Spurs need.

Getting Gooden was the right move. He is a proven offensive player who had the potential to contribute to an offensively stagnant team in the post season (even though it didn't turn out that way).



[This message has been edited by ItalAggie (edited 4/29/2009 10:23p).]