Who can win MVP? I think it's a 3 man race, with a couple dark horses.

Favorites:
1a Dirk
1b Rose
2. Lebron

Dark Horses:
CP3
Howard
Durant

The MVP almost always goes to a player on an elite team (>~60 wins). This year that would be the Celtics and Spurs, but no one player stands out for them. The Heat, Lakers and Thunder have an outside shot at 60 wins, but they also have multiple superstars. Maybe if Durant completely takes over the team and they go on a tear he jumps back into the mix.

Therefore whichever single-superstar team gets to elite status should get the MVP.

If Dirk or Rose can get their team to 60 wins and the 2 seed, then one of them will win. I think the Mavs have a better shot of getting 60 wins, but I think Rose wins over Dirk if they both get to 60 wins - his game is more flashy and people are tired and bored with Dirk nationally. Dirk is also a special case because he missed almost a month - with him playing the Mavs are at a 70 wins/season pace, and without him they were slightly better than Cleveland at 2-7.

The same rules apply to CP3 and Howard, but it would take a huge surge to get those teams to 60 wins.

Lebron is still by far the most outstanding player, as he has been since probably 2006. So he wins MVP by default if no one else gets to 60 wins. But the media still generally hates him, and he would be the only 3peat winner to not win a title let alone make the Finals.

[This message has been edited by InternetFan02 (edited 2/8/2011 11:04p).]

did not read, but it's not gonna be dirk. lebron or rose, but probably lebron.

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But the media still generally hates him

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uh, what? cleveland hates him.

The more I think about it there is still plenty of time for someone else to rise up - if one of the players on a multi-star team goes ape**** the last 2 months and the team keeps winning. But out of the multi-star elite contenders, I think only Lebron, Wade, and Durant are capable of dominating the stats. Pierce and Kobe aren't going to suddenly start scoring 35ppg, but those 3 could. Dirk and Rose don't have the obvious stats that jump out at you - they just win more games with less help than the others have.

MVP should not equal the best player on the best team, but it usually does.

Mavericks were God awful when Dirk went down. He lost his #2 scorer. If they get 60 wins and the #2 seed, he should definitely be right there at the top of MVP consideration.

Just curious, when was the last time an MVP was won by a player who's team wasn't in the top 2-4?

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he would be the only 3peat winner to not win a title let alone make the Finals.

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He did make the finals in '07. He just didn't win any games.

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Just curious, when was the last time an MVP was won by a player who's team wasn't in the top 2-4?

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Jordan 1988 - Magic and Bird didn't distinguish themselves enough, and they just couldn't ignore his stats. Before that - Moses 1982. Nash 2006 is the only player in recent memory to not have a top 3 team (Phx was a distant 4th)

It is truly amazing that a team is on pace for 69 wins and they don't have a single legit MVP candidate.

88 Jordan was also other worldly.

35ppg
6rpg
6apg
3.2 steals per game
1.6 blocks per game
54% shooting

At this point of the season:

1. Derrick Rose
2. LeBron James
3. Kevin Durant
4. Chris Paul
5. Dwight Howard
6. Russell Westbrook
7. Dirk Nowitzki
8. Dwyane Wade
9. Amare Stoudemire
10. Kobe Bryant

Most sites have Lebron as the leader with Rose and Dirk in the top 3.

it's cute how people think dirk is going to win the mvp

What paople are thinking that?

the first two posters, for one.

You mean the 2nd poster who said "Its not going to be Dirk"?

Lebron should win it based on how bad Cleveland is playing without him.

Rose and Nowitzki are 2a and 2b in my mind, but it's James' to lose.

my fault. wrong about the second poster.

point still stands. the very person who started this thread thinks dirk has a shot. that's bad enough.

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Lebron should win it based on how bad Cleveland is playing without him.

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LeBron is the most obvious factor, but the Cavs have a brand new coach/system this year and there isn't a team in the league that's been hit harder by injuries than the Cavs.

Derrick Rose had only Joakim Noah as his big man last year. Now they get Boozer who missed significant time before he even plays and is still working his way back in to playing form only to lose Noah for months. He has a new coach who hangs his hat on his defensive schemes and he still manages to knock out career highs across the board while helping the Bulls to first place in the division and third in the conference AS A POINT GUARD.

No way LeBron is ahead of Rose at this point.

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point still stands. the very person who started this thread thinks dirk has a shot. that's bad enough.

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You've got nothing to contribute. If Dirk carries the Mavs to 60 wins and the 2 seed, then he could earn the MVP. He may not get it, but he'll be right there. That would mean the Mavs won ~80% of the games he played in, which is a ~66 win pace. He will have done it with 0 all-stars, 0 potential all-stars, 0 all-nba players, and 1 borderline all-defense player. Add that to his league leading adj +/-, league leading clutch stats, and top 5 offensive stats. The MVP goes to players with lots of wins.

Because he doesn't have the flashy stats, if the Mavs fall short of 60 wins/2 seed then he'll probably drop to 7-10th in the voting. It's all about team wins.

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Derrick Rose had only Joakim Noah as his big man last year. Now they get Boozer who missed significant time before he even plays and is still working his way back in to playing form only to lose Noah for months. He has a new coach who hangs his hat on his defensive schemes and he still manages to knock out career highs across the board while helping the Bulls to first place in the division and third in the conference AS A POINT GUARD.

No way LeBron is ahead of Rose at this point.

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Boozer is still a 20/10 21+ PER borderline all-star and plays a great complementary role. You can't make a great statistical case for Rose. It's all about winning for him. He needs to get the Bulls past the Heat to the 2 seed with 60 wins, and prove that the Bulls will be a top contender for the title. They still play Miami 2 more times.

[This message has been edited by InternetFan02 (edited 2/10/2011 12:10a).]

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If Dirk carries the Mavs to 60 wins and the 2 seed, then he could earn the MVP.

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Not a chance.

Just for kicks, lets say everyone finishes out the season at the same win % they have now.

Bos and SA are 1 and 2 and neither have a single star you can rely on - because each have 3-4 players that are stars.

Miami has the third best record and the 2-time MVP.
LeBron 26.4, 7.3, 7.3, 1.54 steals, 27.1 PER
He has to be your MVP. Especially when everyone looks at how record-breakingly bad the Cavs are.

Then Dallas is 4th best with Dirk as their only star.
Dirk has 23.1p, 6.8r, .6s, .8b - These are Dirks WORST stats across the board since his first full year as a starter in 2000.

LA is 5th. Kobe is 25.0, 5.2, 5.0. Better than Dirk's stats.

Then Chicago is 6th. Derrick Rose: 24.6p, 8.2a, 4.5r. Much more impressive stats than Dirk.

Now Oklahoma City at 7th. Much more popular than Dirk - Kevin Durant. 29p, 7.1r, 2.8a, 1.1s, .9b. Better stats across the board than Dirk. They also have Westbrook at 22.5, 8.6, 5.1, 1.9.

Then Orlando with Dwight Howard at 22.4p, 13.8r, 2.1b - again, better than Dirk.

Even if the Mavs edge out the Lake show for second seed in the West, Dirk isn't close to MVP.

Dirk has never had the flashy stats compared to others, but he has been in the MVP mix regardless when he led his team to 60+ wins. The problem stat though this year is PER - he had the top PER in 2006 and 07. Now we're propping up his adj +/-, which is even more obscure. His basic stats should improve as he continues to recover from the knee injury, but what scoring/rebounding/PER threshold does he need to hit?

And yeah if Lebron continues to improve his stats and separate himself from Wade while winning 60+ then it will be harder to argue against him. He wasn't on the radar 2 months ago.

[This message has been edited by InternetFan02 (edited 2/10/2011 8:23a).]

He doesn't necessarily have to be the frontrunner, but it irks me that Ginobili is not at least in the discussion. Best player on CLEARLY the best regular-season team.

When was the last time the "best player on the best team" wasn't even mentioned?

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He has to be your MVP. Especially when everyone looks at how record-breakingly bad the Cavs are.

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People keep saying this, but to me it holds no water. If "former team sucks" is a category, you could also give the MVP to Delonte West, Shaq, or Ilgauskas. Hell you could even give it to Varejao or Mo Williams since they've been injured much of the year. People point to Lebron as the reason Cleveland has been so bad but they fail to mention that the Cavs have started undrafted FA Manny Harris at guard for 14 games, and Christian Eyenga and Jamario Moon have also been regular starters this year due to injury. The Cavs are the most injury-stricken team in the league AND they're learning a new system under a new coach. This was a "perfect storm" of suckiness and Lebron is only one piece of the puzzle.

[This message has been edited by MassAggie97 (edited 2/10/2011 8:14a).]

^He's in the top ten of ESPN's Awards Watch list.

I just realized the term "perfect storm" was used in the Daily Dime, also to describe Cleveland, although in a different way.

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When was the last time the "best player on the best team" wasn't even mentioned?

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It is really weird. There's no way the voters can ignore him as the Spurs approach 65+ wins. But how rare is it to have your best player average 31 MPG? This Spurs team is baffling with their depth allowing the stars to keep their minutes way down. When Duncan was an MVP candidate he was playing 35-40 MPG.

Chauncey Billups 2006 ended up 5th in MVP voting on a 64 win Detroit team, which was the only ensemble style best team I can think of right now. He probably wasn't on the radar until the end of the season.

[This message has been edited by InternetFan02 (edited 2/10/2011 8:30a).]

Billups name kept getting tossed around that year but nobody was serious about it. Ginobili really hasn't even gotten that consideration.

besides the fact that several other players have similar and/or better stats, dirk won't win purely because of history.

i think dallas fans are under the impression that the rest of the league is just as enamored with dirk as they are. the fact is, the rest of the league has watched dirk repeatedly put up impressive stats (almost certainly hall of fame worthy) and proceed to get bounced in the playoffs.

every season, it's something new. either dirk didn't have good enough teammates (which is almost never true) or the mavs got screwed by the refs (the miami finals, which is partly true, but he completely shut down and quit). hell, what about the golden state series? what was the excuse then?

the fact is, there is always an excuse with him, and people remember it. the dude is a great player, with incredible scoring instincts, and he knows how to use his skills to his advantage, but he has no backbone and no leadership qualities. if he did, he would have a title already. he's that good. but until he finds a way to lead his team, he will never again be a "most valuable player". he'll always just be that seven foot german scoring machine who never won anything.

It's too early to make firm prediction for anybody right now. If Mavs keep winning, how could you deny Dirk? Or if James continues to go bananas?

I don't think that Dirk will win. But to say he's not in the conversation is asinine. Pretty much just Spurs fans that tout that little jewel. Anybody with credibility has Dirk in the top four or so.

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If Mavs keep winning, how could you deny Dirk?

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Because he is on the 4th best team in the league- 7 games out of first place and he is putting up his worst stats in each of the five major stat categories in the last 10 years of his career?

His totals are down, but he is shooting better than he ever has.

A couple other stats:
Lowest minutes played since rookie year (Could have a lot to do with why his totals are down)
Best FG% of his career
2nd best 3pt % of his career.

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He's in the top ten of ESPN's Awards Watch list.

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Actually, he's number 3 as of yesterday.

And as for scoring, Bryant and Rose are averaging 1-2 more points per game than Dirk. Meanwhile, the other half of that story is that they are taking nearly 5 or more shots per game to get those 1-2 points per game.

Lebron is the MVP, but to act like Dirk isn't in the conversation is ridiculous.

Do you really think that FG% is really one of the top things the voters look at? Me either. They are looking at points, rebounds and assists. Kinda like with DPOY where they only look at blocks, steals and rebounds.

22.8 and 7? Meh
Howard is 22.5/14/2
Kobe is 25/5/5
Amare is 26/9
Bron is 26/7/7
Durant is 29/7
Love is 21/16
Griffin is 23/13
ZBo is 20/13
Wade is 25/7/4
Westbrook is 23/9/5/2
Rose is 25/8/4
Melo is 25/8
Deron Williams is 22/10/4
The Marcus is 22/9

Thats a lot of great players with similar or better stats than Dirk.

[This message has been edited by Guitarsoup (edited 2/10/2011 9:49a).]

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i think dallas fans are under the impression that the rest of the league is just as enamored with dirk as they are. the fact is, the rest of the league has watched dirk repeatedly put up impressive stats (almost certainly hall of fame worthy) and proceed to get bounced in the playoffs.

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It's always cute to see Spurs fans living in the past. You know Lebron is the new poster child for putting up impressive stats and getting bounced in the playoffs while people make excuses for him right? And that 6 of the last 7 MVPs fit this criteria, and every player on the current MVP watch list except Kobe?

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Thats a lot of great players with similar or better stats than Dirk.

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And none of them are the only all-star caliber player on their team that is winning at a 70 win/season rate when they play.