How good are the Mavs, really?

1,793 Views | 37 Replies | Last: 13 yr ago by TheMasterplan
BillOnCapitolHill
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People forget the 3-10 stretch this "crappy" team played when Dirk had an ankle/foot injury.

Had they won 7 of 13 (with or without Dirk) they would have been the 1-seed. Hell had they won 4 of those 13 they would have finished above the Lakers.

If you look at the 69 games Dirk played (by taking out the 13 he missed) their win percentage makes them the best team in the league:

DAL .783 (w/ Dirk 69g)
CHI .756
SAS .744
MIA .707
LAL .695
DAL .695 (w/o Dirk 82g)
BOS .683

Now sitting at 8-2 in the playoffs, and playing hotter than ever, they are now the highest seed in the West. (Unless you ask some people on this board who think the Grizzlies are poised to win the West)
Look Out Below
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AG
If they keep shooting over 50% from three, they'll win the whole thing. I promise you that.
Know Your Enemy
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AG
quote:
If you look at the 69 games Dirk played (by taking out the 13 he missed) their win percentage makes them the best team in the league

If you take out the games that the Bulls lost, they have the best win % ever.
LaurAg
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If they lost them because D-Rose was injured & Noah was out for the year, that would be a good analogy.



Laura
BillOnCapitolHill
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Im not saying take away all losses, Im saying to the only way to measure how good a team is observe how good the team is when they play together. There have been some key injuries on a few top teams as well, I was not following them too closely to tell you if it affected their win/loss. But clearly you have to admit the Mavs took care of LA "the 2nd best team in the West" and now the path is kinda cleared for them now since the Spurs proved they were the best in the West.
Bill S. Preston, Esq
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the Mavs whole offense is (obviously) predicated around the defense collapsing on Dirk and him finding an open shooter. Make the open 3s, win the game. Miss the open 3s (as they did for much of game 3 against LAL), then the Mavs are in trouble. I think it's as simple as that.
BillOnCapitolHill
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quote:
the defense collapsing on Dirk
This proves you havent watched the LA series. It has been one-on-one with Dirk the vast majority of the touches. The only time the defense "collapsed" on Dirk was a designed low-post trap that the Mavs were prepared for because Dirk didnt even have to look at the basket and he knew Chandler was cutting and they got 2 easy layups and a foul. Then Phil told em to stop double teaming Dirk.

The Mavs offense is all about ball movement and execution. They fling the ball around pretty damn fast and they do this while interior guys are curling out to the wings or back to the key and just confusing the hell outta the defenses and getting open looks.
Muy
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AG
any chance that perhaps the Mavs are simply playing their best ball at the right time? i didn't bookmark the thread but remember folks here pointing out how bad the mavs actually were based on how they did against playoff-bound or teams with a winning record over the last few months of the regular season.
TheMasterplan
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Well, nobody's stopping Dirk the rest of the playoffs. He's going to need to get 30 per game the rest of the playoffs and the supporting cast needs to keep playing amazing.
MW03
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AG
Two truths...

(1) This is the best incarnation of the Cuban-era Dallas Mavericks.

(2) The team is playing their best basketball of the season.
AggieOO
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i think they are playing good enough to win it all right now. only time will tell if they continue playing this way or go back to playing mavs basketball.
birdman
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Team is really, really good. And they are playing awesome right now.

The Mavericks shot the long ball great against the Lakers. If they shot the ball normally, this series would be 3-1 Mavericks. Except for Game 4, they shot well, but it wasn't crazy. It was magnified because Lakers were lousy at 3 pointers. Very few of those three pointers were bad shots. Nobody was pulling up with 20 seconds left on shot clock. Just a handful of bombs were taken with a defender on them. They were stroking wide open three pointers from their sweet spots. That's stealing.

Carlisle uses his bigs so much better than Nelson or Avery. Haywood is catastrophe with the ball. Chandler isn't much of a offensive threat. But they're enough to keep teams honest. Chandler parks it near the glass. If another big doubles Dirk, Dirk lobs it to center for easy alleyoop. You see that four times per game. It's easy baskets. It's a constant threat and keeps the Laker bigs from cheating on Dirk or and forces them to stay at home.

Dampier probably had similar offensive skills to Chandler. But his role under Avery was idiotic. He set high picks around the elbow. That was it. He wasn't a serious threat to score from there. It allowed his defender to jump into Dirk, Jet, etc.

The Mav's ball movement is best I've seen in NBA in years. Jet will have decent shot. Instead he makes extra pass to Kidd. Kidd has good 20 footer available. Lakers/Blazers would fly at him. Ooops. He makes an extra pass to wide open Peja in the corner. And he isn't going to miss open jumpers from his sweet spot. Peja and Jet went 15 for 16 from long distance yesterday. Did they ever have a guy in their face?

And that's just the offense.

The Dallas defense is strangling people. Gasol struggled. Good part of that was because a Maverick had belly button to belly button defense. Kidd stayed with Kobe pretty well. And when he was beaten, somebody helped. Chandler and Haywood guard the rim about as well as any pair in the league.

[This message has been edited by birdman (edited 5/9/2011 1:03p).]
Iowaggie
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AG
Dallas results vs. the remaining teams:

OKC 2-1 (Dirk out for lone loss)
Mem 1-3 (Dirk ejected in first game back during one loss)

Chi (0-2)
Heat (2-0)
Boston (2-0)

Atlanta not worth doing
d13
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AG
quote:
Dampier probably had similar offensive skills to Chandler
Except that Chandler has two hands
claym711
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AG
My ultimate end to the playoffs would be for Dallas to go up 2-0 on the Heat in the finals, only to have the Heat win 4-2.
MW03
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AG
pretty good read on the team, birdman.
JSM04
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They will struggle heavily with OKC, and even more with Memphis! I don't think they are that great, just hot right now. It will be hard to keep that up with teams that play D (unlike the Lakers).
BillOnCapitolHill
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Mavs were also 1-2 against the Lakers and 2-2 against Portland.

I wouldnt see Dallas changing much in their defensive scheme for Memphis, but OKC I can see more zone.

I just dont see OKC's back-court being able to compete with the Mavs back-court. The biggest problem OKC has is that their bench is shallower than a hippy's bath. Only two of their starters average over 36mins/g, and most of their bench get 15-20mins/g. I think they try and confuse with matchups and intensity, but Im not certain that translates to defense.

Points allowed (vs. offense):
10. DAL 96.0 (+4.2)
13. MEM 97.6 (+2.3)
18. OKC 101.0 (+3.8)

Opp FG%:
8. DAL .450
14. MEM .457
15. OKC .458

Opp 3pt %:
7. DAL .343
18. OKC .361
24. MEM .369

It looks like the OKC/MEM are not as good defenders as the Mavs and they are mediocre to bad at defending the three.
MassAggie97
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AG
quote:
It looks like the OKC/MEM are not as good defenders as the Mavs and they are mediocre to bad at defending the three.

You lost all credibility with this post. San Antonio was by far the best 3-point shooting team in the league this year, and Memphis absolutely shut that down.

Memphis is the best team left at defending the 3-point line. Allen and Battier are two of the best perimeter defenders in the league, Mayo's no slouch, and, unlike LA, Memphis will not need to double down on anybody on the Mav's roster.

Memphis is my dog. I'm not saying they absolutely WILL win the WC, but they have as good a chance as Dallas, and at this point to say they don't play defense as well as Dallas is just flat wrong.
Simplebay
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AG
does anyone here think the Mavs are going to play nearly as well against the lakers as either OKC or Grizz? Was there anyone on this board who even picked the Mavs over the Lakers?

The Mavs can clearly win a series based on the 3. Can they win a championship?

Mass is absolutely right. Allen and Battier are primed to shut down dallas' 3pt shooting.

[This message has been edited by Simplebay (edited 5/9/2011 4:28p).]
keithd03
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A case can easily be made for Dallas' 'D' being just as good if not better than Memphis' 'D' in the playoffs.
MassAggie97
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AG
You're right, it can. I guess we'll just have to let them play the series (if Memphis can take care of business versus OKC, which I expect they will).
Judge
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Mavs D: 88.2 ppg
Griz D: 96.8 ppg (2 OT games)


This postseason.

[This message has been edited by Judge (edited 5/9/2011 4:44p).]
Muy
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AG
the Mavs were getting the 3's by penetrating and kicking it out, big difference between that and just sitting around jacking up 3's (see the Lakers).
BillOnCapitolHill
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quote:
You lost all credibility with this post. San Antonio was by far the best 3-point shooting team in the league this year, and Memphis absolutely shut that down.
Or maybe because you cup the Spurs' balls too much.

OKC averages 5.9 3ptMade/G and 17.1 3ptAtt/G (.347 average) during the regular season. How have they been thus far against Mem? 6.0 3ptMade/G and 16.3 3ptAtt/G (.367).

If MEM is soo good at shutting down the three, why is OKC shooting better now than they did in the regular season?
MW03
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AG
here's a nice break down of Game 4

http://nbaplaybook.com/2011/05/09/the-key-factor-in-dallas-three-point-barrage-dirk-nowitzki/
BillOnCapitolHill
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MW I didnt watch all the video's but I dont think you can give Dirk the credit for #2 and #3.

#2 the Lakers are playing zone. And two Lakers converge on Barea.

#3 Gasol misses his assignment and it leads to a 3-2 situation, where the mavs make a triangle where one Laker needs to stay on Dirk and the other guy is twisting in the wind, trying to keep up with the passes.
Judge
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That's a good link. The spacing on the floor created by Dirk's perimeter game and the respect he commands is creating all sorts of dribble and passing lanes. If the Mavs can keep moving the ball like they did against LA, they're going to be tough to beat.
PatAg
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AG
Didn't we already beat Portland, who was considered one of the better defensive teams, and western conference darkhorse? We beat them in a completely different way than we beat the lakers.
BillOnCapitolHill
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Portland was the darkhorse, until the mavs shut them up, then the darkhorse became Mem because SA sucked. Now we are debating how great OK City/Memphis is because clearly they can get 4 wins versus the Mavs....
Mosquito Hunters
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AG
Don't forget the game Dirk hurt his knee was against OKC and the Mavs won that one. They did still have Butler, though.

I'm not saying the Mavs will win it all, but their style of play will allow them the ability to succeed. People here are acting like they won only because of threes. JJ has averaged close to 10 a again and he's getting most of that on penetration. Jet is playing like he it's 2006 unlike the last few post-seasons when he was a black hole. His shot is the 16-18 footer on the wing, but he's an excellent spot up three point shooter as well. The thing people don't realize is that our defense has been different than ever before. Our wings are just asked to stay in front of their man, look how that worked against Kobe. Chandler and Big Wood have done a phenomenal job of protecting the rim. The Mavs haven't given up more than 97 points in any game so far in the playoffs and that's against a decent offensive team in Portland and a very good offensive team in LA. LA's strength is playing inside-out, just like Memphis. While Memphis would provide a good test, the Mavs have already been successful against their style of play. The Mavs have been the best team in the league at defending Durant, and while you can't stop him, you can only hope to contain him, the Mavs have played well against them in the past. Either way neither team will be an easy matchup.

The Mavs were 0-2 against the Bulls this year, the first game they lost because of an answered prayer 3 by Taj Gibson against the shot clock. Both games were close with both scores in the 80s. That'd be a great defensive matchup in the finals (if that's what it was).

The Mavs were 2-0 against both the Celtics and Heat, but all four games were fairly close. No matter the matchup, the East team would be the favorite, but it'd be a good series regardless. The reason the Mavs could win is because their defense is stout for the first time ever. It doesn't matter if they shoot above 40% from three. This offense isn't based on outside shooting, it's based on ball movement, pick and rolls with Dirk at the elbows, and wing isos for Dirk.

This team plays hard, smart, and together on defense. They have on of the best closers in the game. They are the deepest team in the NBA. These are reasons why this team in a legitimate championship contender, not because they can hit three pointers.
GrayMatter
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AG
Championships are determined on who scores more points in the paint and even though the Lakers lost the series, they made a ton of points in the paint.

History shows that the teams that rely on the 3-point shot don't win in the playoffs.

Will the Mavs buck that trend? So far they have by beating the Lakers, but was it because they were that hot or terrible Laker defense?

They will have more problems with Memphis than OKC because their bigs can score and Battier and Allen are really good perimeter defense.
keithd03
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I don't know that the Mavs rely on the 3. THey were just so open in the LA series due to dribble penetration.

Also, we will not face the height in the rest of the playoffs that we faced against LA.
MW03
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AG
The funny thing is that LA was considered the popular choice to contend for the title.

That is, until we beat them.

Now everyone would have you believe that LA was overrated, and that the Lakers could not have beaten either Memphis or OKC.

BillOnCapitolHill
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AB98: it is your contention that the Mavs won games 1-3 based on their 3pt shot?
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