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Again, I ask: Does defense not matter anymore?

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I think it does, and by nothing other than just looking at the numbers I'd say the fact that dallas has a better defense should make these 2 teams even more balance, as dallas' points against can neutralize OKC points scored. I don't know how much, nor will I pretend to. My only intention is to show that these teams are very much alike and while Dallas won game one, they did so by only 9 points in a game that saw Dirk go for almost 50, Barea go for 21, and Westbrook shoot 20%. It's not as one-side as most mavs fans think.

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And FWIW, the average game between these two in the regular season was 103-98.3 in favor of the Mavericks. We can now add a 9 point win to skew that average further in the Mavericks favor.

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Yeah, but the Celtics beat the Heat 3 out of 4 times in the regular season and look what that got them in the playoffs.

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Dirk isn't going to score 48 every game, but Durant isn't going to score 40 every time either. Westbrook isn't going to shoot 20% every game, but Kidd/Peja/Chandler collectively aren't going to be held to single digits very often.

As for who should feel better right now, it's clearly the Mavs, if for no reason other than the fact that they have a one game lead.

I think basketball fans who don't have a stake in this series are going to be very entertained. I think those of us that are Mavs fans are going to have some stressful nights, because OKC is very capable of beating the Mavs.

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+1

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I think basketball fans who don't have a stake in this series are going to be very entertained. I think those of us that are Mavs fans are going to have some stressful nights, because OKC is very capable of beating the Mavs.

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where do us Thunder fans fit in?

I always feel that as a series goes longer, the defenses shore up. Not only are you more familiar with your assignments but you get more instruction and tape of 1-on-1 and offense styles.

That being said game 1 was sloppy. Dallas was committing TO's while Kidd was on the bench, OKC could do nothing on JJ. It might be wise to swtich to zone and hope Dallas misses while JJ is on the court. Cant give up those easy buckets.

Now is where I say something really snarky: "Game 1 gave Dallas a chance to shake off all that rust and refocus their offense." Peja, Marion and Kidd will all achieve double digit scoring this next game. Book it. They dont need everyone contributing like they did with LA, but they are a much better team when they are. That being said, you saw a B- performance from the Mavs as a team. You saw A+ from Dirk and JJ. When the Mavs re-gel and become an B+ or A-, there is nothing the Thunder can do nothing but get outta the way.

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Nor would a punch in Westbrook's nuts.

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Spurs fans still crying about one episode fueled by their own player.

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Dallas won game one, they did so by only 9 points in a game that saw Dirk go for almost 50, Barea go for 21, and Westbrook shoot 20%. It's not as one-side as most mavs fans think.

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It's funny you brought up the phrase "one sided."

Our entire point has been that you've been very one-sided in your anaylsis. You look at the Mavs that overachieved and the Thunder that underachieved, but don't look at the Mavs that underachieved and the Thunder that overachieved.

Durant went for 40. Ibaka went for 17. Kidd, Peja, etc... went for 3 a piece.

The game is won with points, and for you, it's about a ton of points from Barea, but it's about a poor shooting percentage with Westbrook, who, if you didn't notice, still had 20 points last night.

I don't think many people here disagree with the premise that it's going to be a fun series. As I said, if you'd leave it at that, everything would be candy and nuts.

[This message has been edited by TXAggie2011 (edited 5/18/2011 2:37p).]

Isn't the game more about matchups than averages?

Dirk is pulling shot blockers away from the basket. If they leave him single covered he will shoot it at a high percentage. He's always been a very efficient player in these scenarios and I see no reason for that not to continue. If they double him then the ball starts to move. The defense rotates to close out but the Mavs have done a great job of moving the ball to get the shot they want. When Dirk is in the game Dallas has gotten the shot they want due to matchup problems. I expect Brooks to bring a double team more in the next game but in the end that Mavs will still get the shot they want. That is why they are playing so well, there is not a team in the league which can defend it effectively. There is no fluke about this.

But OKC presents some matchup problems on the other end. On defense the Mavs can not guard Durant 1v1, he is equally a bad matchup. The Mavs did not double team him last night and he scored efficiently. Not a fluke. The interesting matchup was how Dallas played Westbrook. They let him shoot jump shots and sagged off him. He opted to drive into the lane though and everytime he drove Chandler rotated over to alter his shot. His "bad game" was also not a fluke. Westbrook needs to look to pass once Chandler leaves his man. Neither Westbrook nor anyone else in the leauge will make a living hitting circus shots in the lane all game long. Ibaka's "good game" was also not a fluke. His teamates driving brought over interior defenders which left him open for easy points.

If Westbrook can bring Chandler over and make the pass to the open interior player then it will change the way Dallas matches up with him. If the Thunder's game plan is to assume that Dallas' FG% will drop back to a pre-determined "average" or that Westbrook will start making difficult shots in the lane because of his "average" then this will be a short series.

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I don't think many people here disagree with the premise that it's going to be a fun series. As I said, if you'd leave it at that, everything would be candy and nuts.

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Well, this is a message board, so that would probably be kind of boring.

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where do us Thunder fans fit in?

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OKC is playing with house money right now. Even if they lose this series, they can be happy knowing that they've got an up and coming young team that, barring injuries, should compete for conference/league titles for at least the next few years and possibly longer assuming halfway competant management.

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Our entire point has been that you've been very one-sided in your anaylsis. You look at the Mavs that overachieved and the Thunder that underachieved, but don't look at the Mavs that underachieved and the Thunder that overachieved.

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Actually I'm pretty sure I said that. I said that all the over and underachieving would average out in a wash...here let me help you:

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Since you guys are big on my "law of averages" comment, let's assume that everything settles back to around the averages. So yes, that means Westbrook's FT's will fall, but his pts will go back up...that means that the Dallas roll players will also come up, but Dirk will come down, and so on and so forth...add all that up and that would mean that OKC scores around 104.8 and Dallas scores around 99.1. That's all I'm saying. Dispute it, call it crappy, break it down player by player, do whatever makes you feel better, but based on the numbers, that's what should happen. I stress should.

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I even put the caveat that that's what SHOULD happen, but may not. If you weren't so hellbent on trying to prove me wrong you'd see that I already agree to this point.

When you don't intentionally ignore data for the sake of convenience to make your point, your argument basically proves itself wrong.

Dallas Mavericks: avg 99.1 ppg, allowing 90.4 ppg
OKC Thunder: avg 103.7 ppg, allowing 100.4 ppg

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Dispute it, call it crappy, break it down player by player, do whatever makes you feel better, but based on the numbers, that's what should happen. I stress should.

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It's crappy. To say it's an overly simplistic breakdown would be understating the simplicity, not to mention the general irrelevance.

[This message has been edited by Judge (edited 5/18/2011 4:48p).]

I'm glad I read this entire thread for what is quite possible the worst lesson on the law of averages in history. Are we sure that Devp didn't turn against the Mavs and change his handle to prepyag?

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prepyag03
posted 1:31p

quote:His name is Barea dude. You can't even get that right.

Typical response when one has nothing to add...they go on a grammar nazi binge.

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I just saw this. Holy crap. First off, spelling and grammar are different things genius. Second, it wasn't just some grammatical error. On two different posts in this thread you called him "Barrera".

How can your opinion be taken seriously when you're trying to analyze how players contribute to a playoff series and you don't even know who they are? Almost as embarrassing as trying to use the law of averages as an argument without knowing what it is.

Mavs will split in OKC and turn this thing into a 3 game series.

having now watched a game in the OKC Arena, there will be some damn loud fans present for games 3 and 4. that was the loudest NBA arena i'd ever been in

Game 1 of the Western Semi's was pretty loud in OKC arena as well....

I think it was pretty loud in Portland in Game 6 as well.

To be serious, though, I think the mavs have to be concerned. I like the fact that they played awful, the Thunder played wonderfully, and it was still a close game. That being said, they were out-hustled, and Carlisle out-coached himself. No reason Stevenson should have seen as much time as he did.

Bottom line is that they have to get their **** together.

Two REALLY good, playoff worthy teams going at it. You can't ask for much more than that. I'm enjoying the hell out of this year's playoffs in the Western Conference, especially.

What a RIDE!!!

I'll be rooting for whomever comes out of the West to win it all.

Time to revisit some thoughts in this thread. It appears defense matters, and the Mavs can win without a stellar performance from Dirk and Jet.

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Again, I ask: Does defense not matter anymore?

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Unequivocally, yes.

Free Throws by Game

Game 1:
Thunder 37-43 (86.0)
Mavs 34-36 (94.4)

Game 2:
Thunder 21-26 (80.8)
Mavs 21-24 (87.5)

Game 3:
Thunder 32-36 (88.9)
Mavs 14-18 (77.8)

Series Average:
Thunder 30-35 (85.7)
Mavs 23-26 (88.5)

Thunder getting 9 more FTs per game.

Season Average?
Thunder 26-32 (81.2)
Mavs 19-24 (81.1)

Thunder getting 3 more FTs than their 82-game average, Dallas getting 2 more FTs than their season average. I thought officiating was looser in the playoffs...

[This message has been edited by BillOnCapitolHill (edited 5/22/2011 12:34a).]

Someone should take the time to pull out all the BS free throws that occur at the close of tough games.

Why do those not count while FTs from phantom calls do? If a team is choosing to foul