Heat, Bulls and Thunder are the 3 best teams, and are obvious contenders to me. I really don't see any way a team other than the Heat or Bulls comes out of the East.
The Thunder are a little more vulnerable because of the veteran teams in the West.
4. Lakers - Two good big men on offense, Kobe can still close. I could see them making a run if Kobe lets the Gasol/Bynum carry the load early and then takes over down the stretch.
5. Dallas - Dallas still plays good defense and I think Dirk is the best shot maker in the game in crunch time. Like Kobe, I don't think he can carry his team for all 4 quarters anymore, but if they can get to the 4th...
6. San Antonio - I won't write them off, but I don't think they win the West with Tony Parker as the best player.
I don't see any other team outside of those 6 that can win it all.