Baseball Betting - Wins by Astros During Regular Season 2012 Over 63.5 Wins

458 Views | 4 Replies | Last: 13 yr ago by Barry Kripke
City Dumme
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For the past week I have been researching baseball - who the pitchers are in the NL and where they are in the rotation, home field advantages, talent levels, managers, etc. Then I am predicting each game for the Astros W or L - I used my resarch and then common knowledge plus common sense to predict the number of wins. Here is the results:

Date Opponent Result
Fri, 4/6 Rockies W
Sat, 4/7 Rockies W
Sun, 4/8 Rockies L
Mon, 4/9 Braves W
Tue, 4/10 Braves L
Wed, 4/11 Braves L
Fri, 4/13 at Marlins L
Sat, 4/14 at Marlins L
Sun, 4/15 at Marlins W
Mon, 4/16 at Nationals L
Tue, 4/17 at Nationals W
Wed, 4/18 at Nationals W
Thu, 4/19 at Nationals W
Fri, 4/20 Dodgers L
Sat, 4/21 Dodgers L
Sun, 4/22 Dodgers L
Mon, 4/23 at Brewers W
Tue, 4/24 at Brewers L
Wed, 4/25 at Brewers L
Fri, 4/27 at Reds L
Sat, 4/28 at Reds W
Sun, 4/29 at Reds L
Mon, 4/30 Mets W
Tue, 5/1 Mets W
Wed, 5/2 Mets W
Fri, 5/4 Cardinals L
Sat, 5/5 Cardinals W
Sun, 5/6 Cardinals L
Mon, 5/7 Marlins W
Tue, 5/8 Marlins W
Wed, 5/9 Marlins L
Fri, 5/11 at Pirates W
Sat, 5/12 at Pirates W
Sun, 5/13 at Pirates L
Mon, 5/14 at Phillies L
Tue, 5/15 at Phillies L
Wed, 5/16 Brewers W
Thu, 5/17 Brewers L
Fri, 5/18 Rangers W
Sat, 5/19 Rangers W
Sun, 5/20 Rangers W
Mon, 5/21 Cubs W
Tue, 5/22 Cubs W
Wed, 5/23 Cubs L
Fri, 5/25 at Dodgers W
Sat, 5/26 at Dodgers L
Sun, 5/27 at Dodgers L
Mon, 5/28 at Rockies L
Mon, 5/28 at Rockies W
Wed, 5/30 at Rockies L
Thu, 5/31 at Rockies L
Fri, 6/1 Reds L
Sat, 6/2 Reds W
Sun, 6/3 Reds L
Tue, 6/5 Cardinals L
Wed, 6/6 Cardinals W
Thu, 6/7 Cardinals L
Fri, 6/8 at White Sox W
Sat, 6/9 at White Sox W
Sun, 6/10 at White Sox L
Tue, 6/12 at Giants L
Wed, 6/13 at Giants L
Thu, 6/14 at Giants W
Fri, 6/15 at Rangers L
Sat, 6/16 at Rangers W
Sun, 6/17 at Rangers W
Mon, 6/18 Royals W
Tue, 6/19 Royals W
Wed, 6/20 Royals L
Fri, 6/22 Indians W
Sat, 6/23 Indians L
Sun, 6/24 Indians L
Mon, 6/25 Padres L
Tue, 6/26 Padres L
Wed, 6/27 Padres W
Thu, 6/28 Padres W
Fri, 6/29 at Cubs L
Sat, 6/30 at Cubs W
Sun, 7/1 at Cubs W
Mon, 7/2 at Pirates W
Tue, 7/3 at Pirates W
Wed, 7/4 at Pirates L
Thu, 7/5 at Pirates W
Fri, 7/6 Brewers W
Sat, 7/7 Brewers L
Sun, 7/8 Brewers L
Fri, 7/13 at Giants L
Sat, 7/14 at Giants W
Sun, 7/15 at Giants W
Mon, 7/16 at Padres L
Tue, 7/17 at Padres L
Wed, 7/18 at Padres W
Thu, 7/19 at Padres W
Fri, 7/20 at D-backs L
Sat, 7/21 at D-backs L
Sun, 7/22 at D-backs L
Mon, 7/23 Reds L
Tue, 7/24 Reds W
Wed, 7/25 Reds W
Thu, 7/26 Pirates W
Fri, 7/27 Pirates W
Sat, 7/28 Pirates L
Sun, 7/29 Pirates W
Mon, 7/30 at Brewers L
Tue, 7/31 at Brewers W
Wed, 8/1 at Brewers W
Fri, 8/3 at Braves W
Sat, 8/4 at Braves L
Sun, 8/5 at Braves W
Mon, 8/6 Nationals L
Tue, 8/7 Nationals W
Wed, 8/8 Nationals L
Thu, 8/9 Nationals W
Fri, 8/10 Brewers W
Sat, 8/11 Brewers L
Sun, 8/12 Brewers W
Mon, 8/13 at Cubs L
Tue, 8/14 at Cubs W
Wed, 8/15 at Cubs L
Fri, 8/17 D-backs W
Sat, 8/18 D-backs L
Sun, 8/19 D-backs L
Tue, 8/21 at Cardinals L
Wed, 8/22 at Cardinals L
Thu, 8/23 at Cardinals W
Fri, 8/24 at Mets W
Sat, 8/25 at Mets W
Sun, 8/26 at Mets L
Tue, 8/28 Giants L
Wed, 8/29 Giants L
Thu, 8/30 Giants L
Fri, 8/31 Reds W
Sat, 9/1 Reds L
Sun, 9/2 Reds L
Mon, 9/3 at Pirates W
Tue, 9/4 at Pirates W
Wed, 9/5 at Pirates W
Fri, 9/7 at Reds L
Sat, 9/8 at Reds L
Sun, 9/9 at Reds W
Mon, 9/10 Cubs W
Tue, 9/11 Cubs W
Wed, 9/12 Cubs W
Thu, 9/13 Phillies L
Fri, 9/14 Phillies L
Sat, 9/15 Phillies L
Sun, 9/16 Phillies L
Tue, 9/18 at Cardinals L
Wed, 9/19 at Cardinals W
Thu, 9/20 at Cardinals W
Fri, 9/21 Pirates W
Sat, 9/22 Pirates W
Sun, 9/23 Pirates W
Mon, 9/24 Cardinals L
Tue, 9/25 Cardinals W
Wed, 9/26 Cardinals L
Fri, 9/28 at Brewers L
Sat, 9/29 at Brewers W
Sun, 9/30 at Brewers L
Mon, 10/1 at Cubs W
Tue, 10/2 at Cubs W
Wed, 10/3 at Cubs L

So now let's look at the analysis. Overall record 67 - 95. Home record 28 - 42. 39 - 53. I was expecting those to be switched because of home field advantage but after I looked at every game these were the results. Look for Houston to be good on the road, they have a fairly soft road schedule this year.

On the internet the odds are this:

Total Regular Season Wins in 2012 63.5 (EVEN)o (-130)u

In other words you are betting if they will win more or less than 63.5 games, and if you bet over you are getting even odds (which is better than any casino game including blackjack even if you hit on all the right numbers).

Conclusion: I am betting $50 on Houston Astros OVER 63.5 total wins based on the analysis.
City Dumme
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Whoops. Staff I put this on the wrong place, please move this to the Baseball Other board, it is a baseball thread.
Houston Summit
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birdman
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You don't have enough home games on your synopsis.

Predicting a pitching rotation six months in advance is fool's errand.
Dr Pepper
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over
Barry Kripke
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AG
taking 5/6 from the rangers? honestly.
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