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I actually think Manu will be almost useless against the Heat. There's bad matchups for him across the board. His role right now is backup PG and energy guy off the bench. But luckily I think the Spurs can still win.
As you mentioned later, I think the key for Manu will be making the Heat pay for hard pressure. He has to break the pressure and get the ball moving when TP isn't on the court. That's not only big for Manu, but one of the single most important factors for the series.
The Spurs can make Wade a jump shooter, they can close on Ray Allen, they can probably keep Lebron from getting many easy shots in the paint, the question is can they bother him enough on jump shots to keep his percentage down WITHOUT leaving open cutters and shooters.
It'll be really interesting to see whether this series is played big or small. Both teams are great small ball teams, and the Spurs have an advantage offensively playing two posts but can they stay in front of Miami's G/F enough to make it work?
I think Diaw will be huge for the Spurs, because he can play the 4 in a small or big lineup. That versatility is important. In addition, I think he'll spend some time on Lebron. He's nowhere near fast enough to cover Lebron on the outside, but he's strong enough to keep him from getting low post position, so as long as the help defense is there it may be a workable plan.