Natasha, I agree with the match ups, but one huge question mark for me is Tony. Can Joseph and Mills hold down the fort if he has to miss time against a swarming Heat defense? Personally, Lebron looks better than last year and Wade looks healthy. Add Bosh's improved outside game, that creates problems for any team.

To counter my points, Kawaii plays incredible defense and is an all around baller. Diaw has played fantastic these last 3 games, but can he keep it up? Mills has an edge over Cole, but give me Ray over Marco in a Finals series.

Given all this I just feel more comfortable picking the Heat. I understand fully if anybody chooses the Spurs. I think/hope it will be a close series.

Should be a fun series and would love to see the Spurs win. Pop and Duncan get their fifth and ride off together is a perfect ending to a legacy. I more than anything just want a competitive series

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If Timmah were to get finals MVP, would he be the oldest dude to ever be finals MVP?

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Depends what game the Finals are over. Seriously.

Kareem was 38 years, 1 month, 24 days when he won in 85.

If it goes 7 games and Duncan wins it, Duncan will be the oldest at 38 years, 1 month, 26 days.

I picked Spurs in 6 for the WCF, and I'll go Spurs in 5 for the Finals. After they beat my Mavs in 7 I thought they might stumble, but the way they exploded in the next series made me think that no team could beat them. We'll see what happens, but I'll go Spurs in 5 over the Heat.

Parker is definitely the key. But he wasn't bad in the first half last night (not great but not terrible either) when he was apparently really hurting, and I bet Pop took him out in prep for a possible game 7 and he would have been okay if there was a game 7.

I'm concerned, but the rest before game 1 + no mins in the 2nd half have me cautiously optimistic.

We will see in terms of how good Miami's stars are compared to the team of SA. I don't really think they're better, I think the East has been very bad and that may have skewed how good Miami has looked. But who knows. I would love a sweep and blowout and the Spurs to get their 5th, but I know it should be competitive and fun to watch. GSG.

Read another report about Tony this morning that said he told Pop, before the game even started, that he would not be able to go on the ankle.

Pop goes to Manu some time in pre-game and tells him to be ready to run the point, and Manu is like "WTF?" because none of the other Spurs players knew Parker had injured his ankle back in game 4. Apparently CIA Pop and Parker were keeping it between just the 2 of them and maybe the training staff, hiding it from the other players. MInd games with his own team, maybe? Probably didn't want the other guys playing with that on their mind.

Anyway, game time rolls around and Tony starts anyway, and is able to last 19 minutes without looking Terrible. Pop tells him at halftime he's done because something to the effect of he looked less than 50%.

Crazy. Gives me hope though that 4 full days of R&R might be enough to get him in game shape again. If that's all true, then props to Pop and especially Tony Parker.

[This message has been edited by aggie_2001_2005 (edited 6/1/2014 11:35a).]

Leonard did a very good job on Lebron last year. There were no easy inside shots and Lebron got a good enough contest to keep those jumpers from falling at a high rate through most of the series. No one stops Lebron, but this is the matchup that shows Kawhi's real value. It will be interesting to see which player has made an adjustment in that individual matchup. Green/Diaw also tend to get minutes on Lebron. Lebron dominates Green in the post, but Diaw gives him some trouble.

Green will have to play better defense on Wade than he has played against guards so far this playoffs.

I think we'll see the Spurs go big. Splitter's emergence as a guy with the lateral quickness to play athletic PFs but size and defensive instincts to cut off a lot of drives before they happen will never be more valuable. Diaw, the French Swiss Army Knife, can play in a big or small lineup. The Spurs have as good a roster to deal with someone like Bosh as anyone.

Last year Splitter was too slow with the ball against the swarming Miami defense and got swatted and stolen all series. Has he made an adjustment there or will the Spurs essentially remove him from the offensive gameplan like they did against OKC?

The Heat have no one who can deal with Tim Duncan in the low block. If the Spurs don't have TP for all or part of the series, that will be especially important. Surround him with shooters and hop in the Delorean, destination 2005.

I am really not looking forward to playing that Heat defense with no Parker to take care of the ball. I'm honestly not tremendously worried about running the offense without Parker; the Spurs closed out OKC in OT and blew out Portland without him. However, when Miami goes into hyper defense mode, can Manu/Joseph/Mills hang on to the ball? I'm not sure. Does this force Manu to play more minutes than he ought to so that by the end of the series he is passing the ball to Miami every other possession? The upside of no Parker is that our other options at point will do a better job of sticking on Chalmers/Cole, both of whom will hurt you from three.

When I look at overall minutes, the Heat have 8 players getting more than 15 mpg to the Spurs' 9; the Thunder also had 9 players with > 15 mpg. However, the point distribution is where you see the difference in depth. The Thunder had 4 player with 9+ ppg scoring 77% of their points. The Spurs have 6 with 9+; their top 4 scorers provide 59% of their points. The Heat also have 4 with 9+ scoring 67% of their points. Miami's top 3 scorers provide 59% of their points. The Spurs' top 3 provides just 45% of their points. That is a pretty huge difference.

If Parker comes back at 90%, I'm going with SA in 6. If Parker is significantly hampered or out, then it's a war and the Heat take it in 6.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpZEuKyQQeg

dp

[This message has been edited by Brian Earl Spilner (edited 6/1/2014 11:38a).]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--tony-parker-hopeful-to-play-in-game-1-of-nba-finals-173134866.html

Nothing new to add that hasn't already been discussed. Chalmers/Cole vs. Parker/Mills/Joseph at point will be interesting to watch all series long.

[This message has been edited by TajMaballer (edited 6/1/2014 1:03p).]

I expect splitter to have a nice series. His defense will be nice to keep wade and Lebron out of the lane and I think he can handle bosh similar to the job he did on dirk.

If Parker is slowed then it gets much tougher since the heat can't really guard him but Manu is quietly having a nice playoffs and i think he will have a big series as well. Honestly if I had to pick a playoff MVP for the Spurs I would go with Duncan, and then Manu just ahead of Parker.

It's pretty incredible these old guys are still getting it done.

For playoffs MVP, you could make a case for Duncan, Parker, Manu, Splitter, Kawhi, and Diaw so far.

[This message has been edited by Ulrich (edited 6/1/2014 1:43p).]

Spurs fans; What does last years series have to do with this year's? If anything, that is advantageous for the Heat.

AND if you think that the
Heat winning a weaker conference
championship guarantees the Spurs the title, then you are just dumb.

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What does last years series have to do with this year's? If anything, that is advantageous for the Heat.

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Written like a true Spurs hater.


But to answer, a lot.

1. Both of these teams have virtually the same rosters as last year minus maybe a couple of bench players.

2. Both of these teams still have the same coaches.

3. Both of these teams still play a similar style of basketball to what they played 12 months ago.

4. Because of 1-3, both of these teams will use the same types of lineups and adjustments against each other as they used last year that worked with maybe a couple of additional wrinkles.

5. The only real difference between these two teams and how they matchup this year as compared to last is maybe a couple of players are improved and/or injured/healthy. This will be an eerily similar matchup. That is to say, these two teams are fairly EVEN and with virtually the same makeup as 12 months ago.

You would be an idiot to think that these two teams, even 12 months removed from playing one another for the finals, are nothing like themselves 12 months ago.

All of the above is correct.

So glad we get the rematch
Really hope the Spurs find a way to finish it the right way this year
GSG!!!!!

The rematch is great... Some of us have said if we can win it all (against the Heat), it will help eliminate the heartbreak from last year.

I, for one, am very confident going into this series. I think we win it with less stress than OKC caused us. So far I've been dead on with how I think each series will go. Here's hoping my gut feeling is right one more time.

Feed the ball to Timmy

Not a Spurs hater. Heat fan, grew up in Florida, moved to Texas in high school. Heat won last year, so don't understand why that gives the Spurs an advantage.
And, IMO, Lebron and Wade will be the difference as they will involve the others better than OKC's superstars did.

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AND if you think that the
Heat winning a weaker conference
championship guarantees the Spurs the title, then you are just dumb.

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Haiku fail.

Wade worries me this year. He seems healthier than last year. Danny really needs to take his D up a notch. Westbrook blew by him with ease way too many times.

there isn't a player who can stay in front of westbrook for an entire series, so let's not knock green and leonard for that.

Currently seeing Spurs as 3.5 point favorites for game 1.

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there isn't a player who can stay in front of westbrook for an entire series, so let's not knock green and leonard for that.

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And westbrook > wade

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westbrook > wade

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Yup.

Individually, the only heat player that scares me is LBJ. I think defensively we'll have a much better showing as a team against MIA than against the offensively gifted KD/Westbrook duo.

The Thunder allowed opponents to score about 103.9 points per 100 possessions. Spurs are 102.4 (#3 in the league). Heat are a very mediocre 105.8, good for 11th in the NBA.

Miami, SA and OKC are all basically the same on offense. 110.5 for OKC and SA, Miami was 110.9.

Miami also ran the slowest pace of the three teams. Spurs are #1 in shooting threes, Miami is #12. They shoot more and make less.

But the thing that helps the Spurs is that Miami's weakness is the blocks. They were dead last in offensive rebounding. Miami was dead last in blocks. Teams tend to shoot very well against Miami inside 10 feet. Birdman is playing well in the playoffs, but he is only playing 17.5 MPG. Haslem is playing bad and only getting 12.2 MPG. They are going to have a tough time with the Spurs down low. Battier can't really defense post players. Haslem is on his last legs. The only guys getting 20+mpg in the playoffs outside the big three are Norris Cole, Ray Allen and Mario Chalmers. Beyond that, they are really thin with guys getting 12-17mpg of Battier, Haslem, Rashard Lewis and Birdman.

Miami's opponents are also shooting a healthy 38% from three, which says to me that Miami is not doing a good job of covering everyone. The Bobcats, Nets and Pacers are all below average 3-point shooting teams. Meanwhile, Spurs opponents are shooting just .336 from three. Miami is giving up the 4th most corner threes in the playoffs (as a percentage of shots taken) and their opponents are hitting 43% of their corner threes. I see Pop getting a lot of open looks for Kawhi, Gr33n, Manu and Benelli.

What sucks for the Spurs is that Miami is hitting their threes. Battier is hitting 50%. Norris is hitting 42%. Bosh is hitting 41%. Wade and Chalmers at 39%. Allen at 38% and LeBron at 36%. They have SEVEN guys averaging 2+ 3FGA/game. Rashard Lewis could be really key to the series, somehow. He is hitting just .358/.324 for the playoffs, but he just had a game where he went 6-9 followed by a game he went 3-7. However, before that, he was 3-21 for the playoffs. Hopefully that didn't give him confidence. I am hoping the Spurs defense switches a lot better than all the Eastern teams and we don't see a lot of open looks for Miami.

...and Miami ran up those stats on Eastern Conference teams.

Heat can't win without Mike Miller

Danny Green also had to respect Westbrook's outside shot. That's not usually the case with D-Wade, as he's not generally effective from range, with this playoffs being a rare exception. You want him to pull up from 20 feet out.

The Heat will probably have to go small with Lebron at the 4 and Bosh at 5 to have any real shot at winning. Otherwise the Spurs will always have a big down low to bother Wade when he drives, and the Spurs will be sagging off him on the perimeter and daring him to shoot anyways.

People act as if the Spurs weren't a complete collapse away from beating Miami convincingly 4-2 on the Heat's home floor with their best player (Parker) playing completely handicapped for greater than 50% of the series. All that, with a Spurs team that's not as good as this year's team (with or without Parker) and a Heat team that has at best stayed on par with last year (debatable).

[This message has been edited by aggie_2001_2005 (edited 6/2/2014 7:16a).]

Yeah, last years Heat team was the best they had (that crazy win streak was proof of that). And as was said, we had them beat in 6. The Heat are weaker this year and the Spurs are stronger. Stronger may not be the right word, they are more complete, more sound top to bottom.

I have no doubt the Heat can win. In fact, they will probably up their game to compete with San Antonio. But you can't deny the Spurs just went through the western conference, and at times, completely destroyed the other team. I think the Spurs will jump on Miami quick at home and Miami will go home down 0-2. If the Spurs come to play, they win in 5.

Regular season stats don't mean a whole lot this time of year, especially with veteran players. Look at how the heat have stepped up their three point shooting. Guys like Allen, Battier, Lewis, even Wade are way above where they were earlier in the year.

The good news is that Spurs role players are now seasoned playoff vets as well. Leonard, Green, Splitter and Diaw are not the same players they were last year. I think Splitter is good enough now, that we won't instantly have to go small as soon as the heat want to. This will pay big dividends in games were our shots aren't falling. I think we hit the offensive boards a bit harder this series when they go small similarly to how we did the last couple of games versus the Thunder.

I don't see anyway that the heat are going to win the boards, so it comes down to turnovers. After facing westbrook, you would think the Spurs guards would be better prepared for the aggresive pressure that will be applied on the ball handler and in the passing lanes. Once we get past the perimter D though, there is nobody in the lane like Ibaka to stop the Spurs.

If we can just keep the turnovers close, then you have to love the Spurs chances of winning the boards, 3 pt % and FG %, which should equal a victory.

As an impartial fan, I'm just hoping for a tough, competitive series that comes down to the wire in almost every game. I agree that the Spurs have a more balanced and deeper team, but Miami also has the best player in the world and their role players (Birdman, Allen, Cole, Lewis) are playing well in the playoffs. I hope we get to see a fairly officiated series so the players settle it on the court.

I'm thinking the Spurs normal defensive game plan will work. They don't leave many shooters open. Help will come from down low when anyone drives, but they will not give extra attention to Lebron and Wade other than putting Kawhi and Green on them. Lebron and Wade will have to play 42-45 minutes per game at an elite level to win. The second those guys rest, our bench will go on big runs.

Last year, Splitter averaged about 22 mins per game in the first 3 games, and then quickly had his mins cut to abut 10mins/game over the last 4 as the Spurs went small. It'll be interesting to see if Pop goes small from Game1.

I don't really see a strong pattern here, but Green had an interesting series.

Green's 3pt shooting last year:
GM 3FGM/3FGA OUTCOME
1 4/9 W
2 5/5 L
3 7/9 W
4 3/5 L
5 6/10 W
6 1/5 L
7 1/6 L

Huh. So Danny shot well from 3 except for games 6 and 7. I seem to recall him not getting many open looks in 6 and 7 last year and feeling like that had something to do with a hobbled Parker and an awful Manu.

I really don't think the Heat are nearly as good as they've been in past years. However you never know with Wade and Lebron. The Heat are hard to beat when those guys are both on at the same time. I think it will be Spurs in 6.