Draft is next Thursday and there's so many players that can help the Mavs that it's
almost impossible to F this up if they do their due diligence. I have a tiered system of players (in order) I am hoping the Mavs take at pick 10.
Ideal Draft Scenario:- Taylor Hendricks - A 6'9 Power Forward who lead his conference in blocked shots while shooting 39% from 3pt. He instantly addresses multiple needs for the Mavericks defense and would basically slot in as a Day 1 starter as either your small ball 5 or stretch forward next to a guy like Maxi or even Powell.
10% chance of being available at pick 10.
- Jarace Walker - A 6'8 Forward with an insane 7'2 wingspan who is built like a brick ****house. This dude can defend basically 1-5, displays elite passing vision, and provides insane off or on ball defensive rim protection. He isn't quite the 3pt shooter that Hendricks is, but he could get there. His mid range game is nice though. He would also start on Day 1 for the Mavs and would basically eliminate Dwight Powell because he does everything Powell does but 10x better.
10% chance of being available at pick 10.
Great scenario:- Cason Wallace or Anthony Black - I'm torn on these guys. Both are from North Texas and both are absolute pit bulls who would provide instant point of attack defense. Wallace is a little on the small size at 6'3 and is more of a traditional PG but unlike traditional undersized PGs, he can hold his own on D and actually guard up because he has a 6'8 wingspan and a motor that doesn't quit. Good luck to opposing ballhandlers who think they can simply set a pick to get Wallace off because he'll give his life to fight through a screen. Offensively, he can create for himself or spot up but his at-rim scoring is a little concerning, which is a potential red flag for a small guard. Having said that, he's clearly the 3rd best PG prospect behind Scoot and Amen and the drop off after him is pretty large (depending if you think Black is a PG or not at least). Unfortunately for the Mavs, PG is the last position they need but he's a day 1 contributor and would pair perfectly with Hardy in the 2nd unit.
60% chance of being available at 10. - Anthony Black - a 6'7 swiss army knife that can be a primary ball handler or play off ball as a connective tissue guy. His shooting is a concern, but it's basically the only concern (imo). He has great size, great defensive instincts, and like I said, has that dog in him. But beyond all that his 'feel' for the game is off the charts. He kinda plays like Luka in that he's comfortable dribbling in traffic and manipulating set defenses. I think he's everything people thought about Josh Giddey, but with more athleticism and 5x the defensive ability. He can also play the 1, 2 or 3 which gives him positional versatility (unlike Wallace). Imagine if DFS could operate an offense? That's kinda how I see Anthony Black. And it's worth noting the spacing at Arkansas was absolutely atrocious. So I think every aspect of his game will be further increased by a compliment of NBA level shooters. If FORCED to choose, between him and Wallace, I might pick Black just because of this versatility. But I won't argue with anyone who would rather take Wallace.
70% chance of being available at pick 10.
Good Scenario:- Gradey Dick - a 6'7 sniper who is 'more athletic than he looks.' (ever heard that about a white guy?) Dick shot 40% from 3pt which included an INSANE 56% from the break. He's not a great on ball defender but his size helps him recover some. HOWEVER, what he is not is a bad team defender. People can criticize Dick for not being a ball stopper but anyone who writes him off as someone who "can't play defense" hasn't done their homework. Dick almost NEVER misses a defensive rotation. Combine that with the fact that he possesses the single most important asset in the NBA (shooting), I think if the Mavs drafted Dick, he plays a minimum of 20 min/game and would likely find his way into the starting unit at some point during the season. We could do alot worse than drafting Dick at pick 10.
75% of being available at pick 10. - Trading the pick for a later pick - As long as the Mavs get a pick in THIS draft, I'm basically ok with whatever the deal includes. This class is loaded with high floor role players that the Mavs could use and trading back wouldn't be a bad idea. I can make a later post about dudes I'd take out of the lottery but trading back as an idea isn't a bad one.
Fine? I Guess Scenario:- Bilal Coulibaly - 6'8 with a 7'2 wingspan. This dude is basically an eye of the beholder prospect. If you told me he was a 2 way All-Star in 4 years, I'd believe you. If you told me he was out of the league in 4 years, I'd believe you. If the Mavs pass up the previously mentioned prospects and take Coulibaly, I just have to have faith that they did their homework because I got nothing on this guy. He's only 18 years old and was considered a 2024 NBA draft prospect 8 months ago...now he's being considered as a 2023 lottery pick. Elon Musk would be jealous of that stratospheric launch. Coulibaly has all the raw physical tools to be a 2 way monster but 'raw' is the key word there. He has flashes of elite transition offense but can also be completely wreckless. He can 1v1 defend almost any offensive player but can often get lost on rotations or late to switches. His shot looks ok but slow. It's hard to say if he has tunnel vision or is just a bit of a ball hog at times and can't play within the flow of an offesne. Idk. I have no clue with this guy. The definition of a boom or bust player.
90% chance available at pick 10.
Bad Scenario:- Trading out of the draft entirely - don't do it. please don't do it. We need youth and we've seen time and time again that unless you're LA or Miami, contenders are built through the draft (hello Nuggets). There's always an outlier team like the Raptors who can shoot the moon on a big splash trade but teams like the Celtics, Warriors, or Nuggets compete on a yearly basis because they invest in the draft.
Terrible Awful Please God Don't Do It Scenario:- Derek Lively - A 7'1 Center with a rumored 7'7 wingspan out of Duke. The former #1 HS recruit has an insane physical profile that allowed him to be one of the premiere rim protectors in college...but that's about where my praise ends. If the Mavs take Lively at pick 10 (or almost any pick in the first round), it will be almost entirely about need because I don't see anything on film that says he's an NBA ready player. I posted this earlier in the thread:
Lively shot 52% on non dunks around the rim, 60% from free throw, 15% from 3pt and didn't attempt a single mid range shot....what am i missing? How are people projecting this guy to be anything on offense? On offense, he profiles as a rim running lob threat and that's about it. On defense he can be lazy or unfocused. Often losing track of his man by ball watching. He can go insane stretches of games where you don't even realize he's out there. Like, this dude is S-O-F-T soft. There's no other way to describe it. He doesn't assert his physical presence almost ever. This might sound 'takey' but I think if he wasn't an American that played for Duke, he wouldn't be a first round pick. For almost any team, I'd argue he's a bad pick if they take him anywhere earlier than pick 20, but ESPECIALLY for the Mavs. The Mavs are trying to win now by addressing a need but Lively is years away from contributing to an NBA team. He doesn't fill the need and he won't help them win now. Just trade the pick if you have Lively at the top of your board when your turn comes. 99% chance available at pick 10.
Bonus:I doubt it happens but there is a non 0% chance that Ausar Thompson falls to pick 10. If that happens, he would slot in just behind Hendricks but ahead of Walker for me. I'm in love with the Thompson twins. I think they won't allow themselves to fail and I would bet 10/10 times on their combination of physical and mental makeup. At worst they are culture setters who would do anything to improve the team. They'd volunteer as the ball boys if it helped the team win.
