Do the Astros finish with less than 100 losses this season? How many years until we finish with a record above .500?

Let's make this more interesting...Let's put an over/under on the date that we're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

Pretty sure we have already been mathematically eliminated

We'll be better this year. Right now Ill say we are at 72 Ws… anything more than that and I'm ecstatic.

A 72-90 record would project out to a mathematical elimination on September 8th based on the 2nd wild card team winning 91 games. I believe we didn't make it through August last year.

64-98

I'm betting we win 70-75.

I'm thinking it's close to 65. No way this team improves to more than 70 wins.

Next question...Starting out with the Yanks and Angels will the Astros ever be at .500 at ANY point in the season?

quote:

---

I'm betting we win 70-75.

---

I have 75-87, so I agree with this

I think the Astros take one of the opening series, either from the Yanks or the Halos.

the mortifying thing...the 'stros could add 10 wins this season but that would still mean over 100 losses.

one challenge with projecting the astros record...there will be a firesale midseason of any veteran players (and that now includes Altuve & Castro), if the team is going nowhere again and another club is willing to pay.

so the 'stros could be only 15 games under at the break, but still easily finish 40 or 45 games under by the end of the year

quote:

---

one challenge with projecting the astros record...there will be a firesale midseason of any veteran players (and that now includes Altuve & Castro)

---

We have the top farm system in the MLB according to some/most sites. At some point we are going to have to stop selling everyone off and try to find our foundation of players. Constantly trading major league talent for prospects does nothing for our big league team if that's what we continue to do year after year after year

quote:

---

one challenge with projecting the astros record...there will be a firesale midseason of any veteran players (and that now includes Altuve & Castro), if the team is going nowhere again and another club is willing to pay

---

What makes you say that? I thought the general consensus was that this year begins the upward trend, and it's time to stop pushing our window 2-3 years into the future. I would't be surprised to see 1 or 2 vets traded, but if both Altuve and Castro, along with other recently acquired vets are traded, I'll be pretty upset.

I'm guessing 68-94

I'm thinking high 60s as well. Getting to 70 would, sadly, be a great season.

I would guess low 60's. The major league team is still complete crap. The farm system looks promising but most of the talent is still a few years from breaking into the bigs.

I believe Crane himself said the payroll was going to stay low as long as the stands are empty and the cable deal is going nowhere.

Don't look now...but Castro and Altuve are entering their 4th year in MLB. They aren't making the major league minimum anymore. Each's salary is approaching $3 million per year and for the astros that equals trade material

quote:

---

I believe Crane himself said the payroll was going to stay low as long as the stands are empty and the cable deal is going nowhere.

---

I think you are ignoring the fact that he just paid Feldman $10M... I don't know where you are getting this, but you sound extra pessimistic without reason. I don't think there is any chance we trade Altuve or Castro this year unless it is some unbelievable package.

quote:

---

I would guess low 60's. The major league team is still complete crap. The farm system looks promising but most of the talent is still a few years from breaking into the bigs.

---

Where are you getting this? Is the major league team really a major-league caliber team? No, but the bullpen has gotten markedly better (by far the worst area of the team last year), and most of our best prospects are right at the edge of the bigs. Why would anyone say Springer, Singleton, etc. are "years from breaking into the bigs"? Makes me think some people just read the talking points without following the team.

That being said, I would expect a win total in the 60s this year, and in the 70s to ~.500 the next year...

He did say "most", not "all".

quote:

---

I'm guessing 68-94

---

You and me both.

quote:

---

Don't look now...but Castro and Altuve are entering their 4th year in MLB. They aren't making the major league minimum anymore. Each's salary is approaching $3 million per year and for the astros that equals trade material

---

With Altuve signing a team friendly extension to buy out his arbitration years and no real 2b prospects close (maybe Fontana if he switches positions), it's hard for me to see trading him.

I could see dealing Castro for a very good return if he hits lights out in the first half. But that depends on Stassi's or Perez's production.

quote:

---

Makes me think some people just read the talking points without following the team.

---

Of course. Silly me. Maybe I should pay attention.

Unfortunately, I see them losing 100 games again. I think back to the '91 Astro team with Finley, Gonzo, Bagwell, Harnisch and Schilling as rookies, plus young Biggio and young Caminiti, and how much they struggled, ultimately going 65-97.

Clearly MLB talent is a lot more diluted these days with 4 extra franchises added in, but I just can't see this collection of youngsters not being able to avoid prolonged slumps.

Fontana was always pegged long term for 2b, wasn't he?

He played most of his games last year at SS I believe. I could see him in a Rays Ben Zobrist type of role if he's not able to stick there or at second.

I love Zobrist

It's very difficult to predict a record with so much youth involved. The bullpen upgrades alone are probably worth around 10 wins. Adding a veteran pitcher and a player like Fowler probably gets you five more. But with a youthful rotation and several guys likely to make their big league debut, you never know what to expect. I'll say 70 +/- 5.

Our club improved, but just about everybody in our division improved more.

quote:

---

Bovada sets O/U at 62.5

---

I'd semiconfidently take the over

Ha, that's the perfect number. Will we have another 100 loss season?

Fontana is no Zobrist.

That's the comp I've most often seen for his ceiling. If he can figure out the hit tool, I could see it myself.

Fontana works the count well because he knows if he swings the bat he is probably missing. Sooner or later pitchers are going to find out they just need to challenge him and they will win. Not too confident in him as a prospect. We need Deshields to pan out.