Nails.

He's still an ace though right?

Hey did Christopher Jesus roll out a HBP like one of his prior playoff outings.

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He's still an ace though right?

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Well considering Richards injury, his manager thinks he's a 4.

I underestimated how much he'd regress.

Just needed a little more time to read up on how to land the plane tonight.

Angels severely overpaid for two former rangers

I don't know how you can say LAAA overpaid, or that he is a bust.

2012: $10M - 3.83 (17th in AL) \ 1.34 (34 GS)
2013: $11M - 3.39 (13th in AL) \ 1.34 (33 GS)
2014: $16M - 4.51 (34th in AL) \ 1.45 (31 GS)
2015: $18M - TBD
2016: $20M - TBD

From 2011 - 2014:
#4 in MLB in GS: 132
#12 in MLB in IP: 813.2. 8th in AL
#25 in MLB in ERA: 362. 11th in AL.

I'm not sure what you designate as an Ace... but a guy with the 11th Lowest ERA in the AL over the past 4 seasons... if he doesn't make it, then, really almost no team in the AL has an Ace.

Tigers: Price, Verlander, Sanchez, Scherzer
Mariners: Felix
LAA: Weaver
A's: Lester
Royals: Shields
Yankees: Kuroda
Blue Jays: Dickey

I think CJ is as big a dewsh as there is, but he can pitch and has earned the money LAAA has paid him... so far. The next two years will likely be a different story.

Hamilton... that's another story... I'm not sure when it dawned on him... but those voices he thought were God telling him to sign with the Angels were either Demons leading him to self implosion... or Angels (pardon the pun) leading him to a PayDay. $25M, $32M and $32M the next 3 seasons.

And was I in the camp that said yes to CJ for 3, but not 5 years.

I wanted Texas to sign Hamilton, but not the kind of money he wanted... and not for 5 years. He would have never signed for what I would have offered.

CJ's been great for LAA. No doubt.

Definitely worth those first 2 years. But he's drifting into troubled waters now. They didn't get value this year and the next two look very bad if he doesn't rebound.

59th in SP WAR in 2012, btw.

Just to help with the current discussion.

I think *some* people *might* disagree that he's been a value at all.

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Definitely worth those first 2 years. But he's drifting into troubled waters now. They didn't get value this year and the next two look very bad if he doesn't rebound.

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Totally agree. His cost is about to soar, just as his numbers head south. It wouldn't surprise me if his numbers get worse. It also wouldn't surprise me if they get stronger and in the low 3s... 3.3 or 3.4.

You know your analysis was nails when a poster needs 3 years after the original post to try and counter it.

Oh, and could someone tell me what bonafide, no-doubt ace Justin Verlander's ERA was this year?

Surely it can't be worse than CJ's?

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59th in SP WAR in 2012, btw.

Just to help with the current discussion.

I think *some* people *might* disagree that he's been a value at all.

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Yeah, I guess when we start deciding who goes to the WS based on WAR...

2012:
$7M SP1 - 4.29 ERA (29 GS) \ 168 IP \ 1.363 WHIP \ 12-11 = 2.3 WAR\ESPN - 1.9 WAR (FanGraphs is what you use, right?)
$10M SP2 - 3.83 ERA (34 GS) \ 202.1 IP \ 1.344 WHIP \ 13-10 = 0.4 WAR\ESPN - (2.0 WAR\FanGraphs)

Now, we can argue if $3M was worth the return between these two SPs... but SP1 was paid $41,667 per IP while SP2 was paid $49505 per IP.

SP1 had 29 GS, and pitched 168.0 IP of the 261 in those games.
SP2 had 34 GS, and pitched 202.1 IP of the 306 in those games.

I would much rather have to find a RP to pitch 104 Innings over the season, than to find a SP for 5 games, in addition to the 93 Relief Innings in those 29 GS.

Yet, WAR from ESPN indicates that SP1 (Gavin Floyd) was a far better SP than CJWilson, while FanGraphs indicates they are for all intents equal pitchers.

In 2012 would you rather have had Gavin Floyd @ $7M or CJ Wilson @ $10M?

What about 2013?

At some point if you want to make decisions about pitchers... you've got to move past WAR. It isn't as revealing as someone like you like to believe.

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You know your analysis was nails when a poster needs 3 years after the original post to try and counter it.

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You totally nailed how awesome CJ was gonna be, bud. NAILED IT.

Did you sit through his 2/3 of an inning last night? Or did you have to turn it off?

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Oh, and could someone tell me what bonafide, no-doubt ace Justin Verlander's ERA was this year?

Surely it can't be worse than CJ's?

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Can someone point out when CJ has a Cy Young and an MVP?


Apples and oranges. Not that I blame you.

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59th in SP WAR in 2012, btw.

Just to help with the current discussion.

I think *some* people *might* disagree that he's been a value at all.

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Yeah, I guess when we start deciding who goes to the WS based on WAR...

2012:
$7M SP1 - 4.29 ERA (29 GS) \ 168 IP \ 1.363 WHIP \ 12-11 = 2.3 WAR\ESPN - 1.9 WAR (FanGraphs is what you use, right?)
$10M SP2 - 3.83 ERA (34 GS) \ 202.1 IP \ 1.344 WHIP \ 13-10 = 0.4 WAR\ESPN - (2.0 WAR\FanGraphs)

Now, we can argue if $3M was worth the return between these two SPs... but SP1 was paid $41,667 per IP while SP2 was paid $49505 per IP.

SP1 had 29 GS, and pitched 168.0 IP of the 261 in those games.
SP2 had 34 GS, and pitched 202.1 IP of the 306 in those games.

I would much rather have to find a RP to pitch 104 Innings over the season, than to find a SP for 5 games, in addition to the 93 Relief Innings in those 29 GS.

Yet, WAR from ESPN indicates that SP1 (Gavin Floyd) was a far better SP than CJWilson, while FanGraphs indicates they are for all intents equal pitchers.

In 2012 would you rather have had Gavin Floyd @ $7M or CJ Wilson @ $10M?

What about 2013?

At some point if you want to make decisions about pitchers... you've got to move past WAR. It isn't as revealing as someone like you like to believe.

Actually you don't need to post more to try and prove your point, although that's your go-to move.

WAR is about value and CJ hasn't been all that valuable, especially relative to his fanboys on this forum. I get it's frustrating to be wrong about a guy, but it happens to us all.

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I've never seen someone volunteer to take a beating on a subject every 6 months like corleone.

Especially someone who was too frightened to actually put his money where his mouth was.

You are literally referencing a 3 year old post to try and say that now you are right.

Here's a tip -- if you have to wait 3 years to try and provide evidence you were right, you weren't right.

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Oh, and could someone tell me what bonafide, no-doubt ace Justin Verlander's ERA was this year?

Surely it can't be worse than CJ's?

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Can someone point out when CJ has a Cy Young and an MVP?

Apples and oranges. Not that I blame you.

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Dontrell Willis, anyone?!

Is he an Ace? He was 2nd in CY votes in 2005 and only lost because a St.L Card will always get more votes. Aside from that great season, I don't know that Willis was an "Ace."

Is that the measure for an Ace? You must win both a Cy Young and an MVP? King Felix has a CY, but no MVP. I think he is an Ace.

Verlander has a 3.53 Career ERA \ 1.21 WHIP.
Wilson has a 3.72 Career ERA \ 1.33 WHIP.

Verlander made $20M this year for his 4.54 ERA.
Wilson made $16M this year for his 4.51 ERA.

Value goes to whom?

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I've never seen someone volunteer to take a beating on a subject every 6 months like corleone.

Especially someone who was too frightened to actually put his money where his mouth was.

You are literally referencing a 3 year old post to try and say that now you are right.

Here's a tip -- if you have to wait 3 years to try and provide evidence you were right, you weren't right.

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Beating?

Like 2/3 of a inning before being pulled in a playoff start?

Poor CJ. Just not what you thought he was.

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Oh, and could someone tell me what bonafide, no-doubt ace Justin Verlander's ERA was this year?

Surely it can't be worse than CJ's?

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Can someone point out when CJ has a Cy Young and an MVP?

Apples and oranges. Not that I blame you.

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Dontrell Willis, anyone?!

Is he an Ace? He was 2nd in CY votes in 2005 and only lost because a St.L Card will always get more votes. Aside from that great season, I don't know that Willis was an "Ace."

Is that the measure for an Ace? You must win both a Cy Young and an MVP? King Felix has a CY, but no MVP. I think he is an Ace.

Verlander has a 3.53 Career ERA \ 1.21 WHIP.
Wilson has a 3.72 Career ERA \ 1.33 WHIP.

Verlander made $20M this year for his 4.54 ERA.
Wilson made $16M this year for his 4.51 ERA.

Value goes to whom?

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Words.

CJ wasn't that valuable. We both know it.

It's like a child who keeps sticking his fingers in the wall outlet and keeps getting surprised when he gets shocked.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/52282/royals-knock-out-c-j-wilson-in-first

It's like a girl who just can't admit she got dumped, not that he just wanted to be friends.

You must have missed the Verlander GS of 5IP \ 3ER.

In V's Postseason:
2006 - 4 GS - 5.82\1.66
2011 - 4 GS - 5.31\1.43
2012 - 4 GS - 2.22\0.78
2013 - 3 GS - 0.39\0.57
2014 - 1 GS - 5.40\1.40

Ace?
Not Ace?

When did you consider him an Ace?

In CJ's:
2010 - 4 GS - 3.70\1.11
2011 - 5 GS - 5.79\1.71
2014 - Dumpster fire.

I considered him an ace when he won the Cy Young and MVP.

It's a very detailed formula.

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You know your analysis was nails when a poster needs 3 years after the original post to try and counter it.

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You totally nailed how awesome CJ was gonna be, bud. NAILED IT.

Did you sit through his 2/3 of an inning last night? Or did you have to turn it off?

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This is good!

Wilson earned 100% of the loss and didn't even play in 8% of the game.

Unless he was hurt, that is about as unclutch a performance as you can get.

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I considered him an ace when he won the Cy Young and MVP.

It's a very detailed formula.

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Cool... so after the 2011 season, but not before.... and not after.

Up until then, he was a HORRIBLE PostSeason SP. 5.31 ERA+ in 2 full postseasons.

Not quite CJ WIlson Ace, but Ace apparently anyway...

Just to reset...CJ's SP WAR rank since 2012:

2012: 59th

2013: 35th

2014: 46th

Also let's reset CJ's last 3 starts of his vaunted super valuable 2014 campaign:

9/22 - 2/3 IP, 6 R, 4 ER, 4 BB(8-4 loss to OAK)

9/27 - 6 IP, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB(2-1 loss to SEA)

10/5 - 2/3 IP, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB(8-3 loss to KC)

That SEA outing was great. But was it so great that it offset his other 2 starts where he didn't make it out of the first inning?

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I considered him an ace when he won the Cy Young and MVP.

It's a very detailed formula.Cool... so after the 2011 season, but not before.... and not after.

Up until then, he was a HORRIBLE PostSeason SP. 5.31 ERA+ in 2 full postseasons.

Not quite CJ WIlson Ace, but Ace apparently anyway...

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Exactly.

Justin Verlander has only had one "ace" season and it's completely based on his postseason.

And, since we only value pitchers based on their playoff performances according to you, I WAY overestimated CJ. He's not a 2/3...he should be a bullpen catcher.

Thanks for setting me straight.

It is hard to follow you chasing your tell.

Give me links to your rankings so I can extract your absurdity...

Let's randomly pick 3 GS and call it broad brush for career works.

Your constant redefinition shows your inability to articulate reasoning.

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I considered him an ace when he won the Cy Young and MVP.

It's a very detailed formula.Cool... so after the 2011 season, but not before.... and not after.

Up until then, he was a HORRIBLE PostSeason SP. 5.31 ERA+ in 2 full postseasons.

Not quite CJ WIlson Ace, but Ace apparently anyway...

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Exactly.

Justin Verlander has only had one "ace" season and it's completely based on his postseason.

And, since we only value pitchers based on their playoff performances according to you, I WAY overestimated CJ. He's not a 2/3...he should be a bullpen catcher.

Thanks for setting me straight.

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Dude, I'm just trying to follow your standards... these aren't mine. They are yours.

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It is hard to follow you chasing your tell.

Give me links to your rankings so I can extract your absurdity...

Let's randomly pick 3 GS and call it broad brush for career works.

Your constant redefinition shows your inability to articulate reasoning.

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Constant redefinition?

CJ isn't an ace.

CJ wil be a 2/3 moving forward.

CJ sucks in the playoffs.

Thats been my stance and continues to be. Just because you get confused by your own 15 page posts doesn't mean i've changed my tune.

HTH.

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I considered him an ace when he won the Cy Young and MVP.

It's a very detailed formula.Cool... so after the 2011 season, but not before.... and not after.

Up until then, he was a HORRIBLE PostSeason SP. 5.31 ERA+ in 2 full postseasons.

Not quite CJ WIlson Ace, but Ace apparently anyway...

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Exactly.

Justin Verlander has only had one "ace" season and it's completely based on his postseason.

And, since we only value pitchers based on their playoff performances according to you, I WAY overestimated CJ. He's not a 2/3...he should be a bullpen catcher.

Thanks for setting me straight.

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Dude, I'm just trying to follow your standards... these aren't mine. They are yours.

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Then your reading comprehension rivals your evaluation of CJ.