Lineup Optimization with run limit

982 Views | 2 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by Wabs
ORAggieFan
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Girls 8U softball. We have a 4 run/inning limit. I'm an assistant and trying to get the other coaches to understand we need to space out our lineup. Last game is a good example we went 4, 0, 4, 0 runs.

First inning we typically have 5 batters to max out our 4 runs.

Thoughts on how you'd stack rank the players to try and get "good outs" with the bad players mixed in? 12 players with essentially three tiers good, average, below average.
Bones08
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AG
This actually sounds like a probability math problem that I would have to answer back in the day. Since then I have forgotten everything there is to know about solving probability problems.

But I think a lot of it comes down to figuring out the chances of each player tier recording an out (ex: a good player has a 30% chance of being out, an average player 65% chance of recording an out, below average 80% chance.). Also currently when you score 4 runs how many outs are there and when you score 0 runs do you have baserunners?

I believe the goal is you want to avoid innings where you score less than 4 runners if you also have innings where you score 4 runs with less two outs.

I may be nerding out on this question too much, but that's how I would start my thinking at least.


The Milkman
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Bones08 said:

I believe the goal is you want to avoid innings where you score less than 4 runners if you also have innings where you score 4 runs with less two outs.
I think this is the key. Obviously you want to end each inning with 4 runs and 0 LOB.

Without further data or more analysis from you I think a good place to start is as simple as every other batter.
Wabs
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The Milkman said:

Bones08 said:

I believe the goal is you want to avoid innings where you score less than 4 runners if you also have innings where you score 4 runs with less two outs.
I think this is the key. Obviously you want to end each inning with 4 runs and 0 LOB.

Without further data or more analysis from you I think a good place to start is as simple as every other batter.
I coach 12U and have the same issue as OP. I stagger - good, bad, good, etc....
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