Astros' Mathematical Odds

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TexasRebel
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In reply to JJxvi • 8:22p, 10/24/19
AG
JJxvi said:
How does 1/4 of 3/4 get to 7/16

How does 1/2 of 3/8 make 5/8


1/4 of 3/4 = 3/16 + 1/4 = 7/16
1/2 of 3/8 = 3/16 + 7/16 = 5/8
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JJxvi
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8:45p, 10/24/19
Wabs
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 8:26a, 10/25/19
AG
lda6339 said:
Wabs said:
lda6339 said:
There will not be another World Series baseball game played in Houston this year. Book it.
Won't be another one played in Arlington either. Book it.
If you're gonna pretend this is clever or funny at least go through my post history to figure out I'm not a rangers fan so you can attack the correct team you melon.
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wisdom
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9:33a, 10/25/19
AG
Here is my analysis: We are in good hands with Greinke pitching for the Astros in Game 3. Walgreens' luck can't last for ever. Game 3 goes to the Astros. In the rotation, our 2 aces, Cole and Verlander will come up again in the Series. Those two games are a lock. That leaves only 2, bullpen games. Surely the Astros will win one of those. Voila, THE ASTROS ARE WORLD SERIES CHAMPS! Book it.
.

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Fat Bib Fortuna
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11:55a, 10/25/19
Why are cole and verlander a lock when they each are 0-1?
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astros4545
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In reply to Fat Bib Fortuna • 12:55p, 10/25/19
AG
MuckRaker96 said:
Why are cole and verlander a lock when they each are 0-1?


Because it's our destiny
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Fat Bib Fortuna
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1:33p, 10/25/19
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diehard03
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2:59p, 10/25/19
Quote:
Why are cole and verlander a lock when they each are 0-1?

This is not really a stretch. I also don't think Cole and Verlander lose both outings in the WS. But being in good hands with Greinke?

I can see things getting ugly in DC or the Astros winning the next 4 games by 10 runs each. This has been a bizarre WS so far.
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TexasRebel
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11:17p, 10/25/19
AG
I told ya...5/16
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kb2001
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12:10a, 10/26/19
AG
Here's a better breakdown of the Astros chances, from Thursday. It's better than a grade school level statistical breakdown where coin flips are the extent of variability

https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/odds-astros-comeback-world-series

In short, coming into game 3 the Astros had about a 1/4 chance of winning. They breakdown game by game with predicted pitching as well, and I'll say that Astros are favored for games 5, 6, and 7
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JJxvi
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6:30a, 10/26/19
AG
Game 3 moved the Fangraphs odds to 52% Nationals 48% Astros
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JJxvi
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6:42a, 10/26/19
AG
Updated coin flips

After Game 4

1/2 chance (3-1)
1/2 chance (2-2)

After Game 5

1/4 chance Washington wins 4-1 (1/2 of 1/2)
1/2 chance of 3-2 (1/2 of 1/2 and 1/2 of 1/2)
1/4 chance of 2-3 (1/2 of 1/2)

After Game 6

1/4 chance of Washington 4-2 (1/2 of 1/2)
1/8 chance of Houston 2-4 (1/2 of 1/4)
3/8 chance of 3-3 (1/2 of 1/2 and 1/2 of 1/4)

After Game 7

3/16 chance of Washington 4-3 (1/2 of 3/8)
3/16 chance of Houston 3-4 (same)


Add up the Washington in bold. 1/4 + 1/4 + 3/16 = 11/16 (68.75%)
Add up the Houston in italics. 1/8 + 3/16 = 5/16 (31.25%)
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NoseBleed
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9:00a, 10/26/19
Well well well ..the Astros are 1 game away from tying up the series. What do all you coin-flippers say now about the odds, possibilities, chances,
.

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TexasRebel
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In reply to NoseBleed • 11:32a, 10/26/19
AG
TexasRebel said:
I told ya...5/16
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NoseBleed
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4:33p, 10/26/19
No ......it's different now.
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aggie09whoop
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 10:59p, 10/26/19
lda6339 said:
There will not be another World Series baseball game played in Houston this year. Book it.


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-26/ruling-on-trump-impeachment-may-defuse-constitutional-crisis

Time to eat crow
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TexasRebel
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11:07p, 10/26/19
AG
1/2

This one is easy.
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McInnis
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 11:07p, 10/26/19
AG
lda6339 said:
There will not be another World Series baseball game played in Houston this year. Book it.
Didn't leave yourself a lot of wiggle room with that one did you?
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Silent For Too Long
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2:35a, 10/27/19
I booked it. Can I get my money back?
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Wabs
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 5:15a, 10/27/19
AG
lda6339 said:
There will not be another World Series baseball game played in Houston this year. Book it.
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CoachAg19
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 9:31a, 10/27/19
AG
Good call.
Class of 2010
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Farmer1906
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 9:35a, 10/27/19
AG
lda6339 said:
There will not be another World Series baseball game played in Houston this year. Book it.


You'd think after all the missed predictions, you'd eventually stop doubting Daddy.
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tjack16
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 9:51a, 10/27/19
AG
lda6339 said:
There will not be another World Series baseball game played in Houston this year. Book it.


Update?
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62strat
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10:09a, 10/27/19
AG
So we back to 50/50 now?
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cisgenderedAggie
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In reply to 62strat • 10:40a, 10/27/19
62strat said:
So we back to 50/50 now?


Depends, are we frequentist or Bayesian?
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JJxvi
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10:51a, 10/27/19
AG
Updated coin flips

After Game 5

1/2 chance of 3-2
1/2 chance of 2-3

After Game 6

1/4 chance of Washington 4-2 (1/2 of 1/2)
1/4 chance of Houston 2-4 (1/2 of 1/2)
1/2 chance of 3-3 (1/2 of 1/2 and 1/2 of 1/2)

After Game 7

1/4 chance of Washington 4-3 (1/2 of 1/2)
1/4 chance of Houston 3-4 (same)


Add up the Washington in bold. 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2 (50.00%)
Add up the Houston in italics. 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2 (50.00%)
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PlaneCrashGuy
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3:41p, 10/27/19
AG
Congrats the stros for actually making this interesting

New take-

Nats in 6!
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Sex Panther
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 3:46p, 10/27/19
AG
lda6339 said:
Congrats the stros for actually making this interesting

New take-

Nats in 6!

Yeah I'll take that bet
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The D
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 3:50p, 10/27/19
AG
lda6339 said:
There will not be another World Series baseball game played in Houston this year. Book it.


BOOK IT !!!!!!
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 5:18p, 10/27/19
AG
lda6339 said:
Congrats the stros for actually making this interesting

New take-

Nats in 6!


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95_Aggie
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5:28p, 10/27/19
AG
You should stick to the Politics board
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ChemEAg08
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In reply to 95_Aggie • 9:22p, 10/27/19
AG
95_Aggie said:
You should stick to the Politics board


No, don't stop him. This is getting funny.
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TexasRebel
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10:28p, 10/27/19
AG
Game 6(1/1)
4-2 (1/2)
3-3 (1/2)

Game 7(1/2)
4-3(1/4)
3-4(1/4)

75% on the coin!
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Mathguy64
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 10:35p, 10/27/19
AG
lda6339 said:
Congrats the stros for actually making this interesting

New take-

Nats in 6!


Regular Reid MacKenzie IV
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 10:36p, 10/27/19
AG
lda6339 said:
There will not be another World Series baseball game played in Houston this year. Book it.


This aged well
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