ChAg1799 said:

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Okay a questions for all you payroll nerds...

How does MLB treat a Justin Verlander's salary at $33 M when he isn't playing? I know that the Astros have insurance, but it can't count against the cap right? I have to believe that we should be able to keep a Springer/Bradley especially when 75% of our pitching staff is 2 years or less of MLB service. Click needs to figure this crap out.

We also have some arbitration guys, like Correa and McCullers who will get a bump. (I would expect) Osuna is also going arbitration eligible, but didn't play and probably will miss most of 2021...

SO, what is our REAL salary?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/HOU/houston-astros-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/yearly/payroll/

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MLB doesnt have a cap....but yes it counts towards the luxury tax

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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If Crane trades Correa I guarantee half of this fan base isn't going to be back for the 2021 season. It is one thing to lose him in free agency because you coulnt outbid a big spender but at this point no fan will let him live down trading Carlos. Especially if during this off season we lost out on the Springer sweepstakes

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I assume you're referring to my TLDR post a few pages back? Agreed. I certainly wouldn't deal Correa at this juncture. Was more just bracing myself in the event Crane has a different view.

MuckRaker96 said:

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Signing Correa has to mission 1 Signing Geoge is 1A.

Brantley would be great if he wants to stay, but if he wants the Brinks truck, I don't think we can give it to him. He's getting to the point of his career where he will be DHing more than playing in the outfield. We've already got a DH (praying that Yordan gets better).

I'd like another big bat off the bench, our bench options for pinch hitting were god-awful in the post-season. And I love Yuli, but I think he was on a 1-year deal and he vanished at the plate. He'll be 37 next year, gotta be careful.

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Signing Correa is not going to be handled before George. He is still under team control...Now if you have no intention of signing George then yes that is first thing to handle, but if you want George you sign him first and then go to Correa and work through options from there.

Deluxe said:

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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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If Crane trades Correa I guarantee half of this fan base isn't going to be back for the 2021 season. It is one thing to lose him in free agency because you coulnt outbid a big spender but at this point no fan will let him live down trading Carlos. Especially if during this off season we lost out on the Springer sweepstakes

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I assume you're referring to my TLDR post a few pages back? Agreed. I certainly wouldn't deal Correa at this juncture. Was more just bracing myself in the event Crane has a different view.

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I was, I meant to quote not just reply...but if Crane wants to go the route of trading Correa then he is also:
- not pursuing George
- not resigning Brantley
- he is cutting Verlander (money is owed either way)
- Trading Greinke

If you are going to go that route what was the point of extending Bregman? He cant win on his own and we dont have depth to replace those guys and wont get much else from trading ZG...do you think we would get enough for Correa to replace all those guys? He is a rental to whomever he is traded to unless its a big dollar club who thinks they can resign him and those clubs dont usually have great prospects because they spend them early to get established guy

Man, it feels like we just got out of the longest offseason thread ever (cause we did) and now we are already back at it.

Young talent and heart this team showed this year has me very hopeful for 2021. LFG!!!!

So, Bellinger dislocated shoulder while celebrating his home run last night.

What I think should happen if I was GM.

1. Try to resign springer or Brantley first and foremost. Springer is the priority. I'm okay with Brantley walking if we sign springer, gives us more money for #2 below
2. Once it's decided which way that is going, talk to Correa about an extension. Open the checkbook for him.
3. Entertain offers for Greinke. Love him, but with a year left and a huge salary let's try to get a return of prospects for him.
4. Sign a bullpen arm that can eat up a lot of innings.
5. Entertain offers on a few other guys. Like Joe Smith, Peacock, Devo, Osuna.

We know this going into next year. Our young pitchers proved they can hang, so we can afford to lose a couple of the vets in the bullpen if necessary to build up the farm system back up and to create budget for guys like Carlos and LMJ (if we decide to extend him)

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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I was, I meant to quote not just reply...but if Crane wants to go the route of trading Correa then he is also:
- not pursuing George
- not resigning Brantley
- he is cutting Verlander (money is owed either way)
- Trading Greinke

If you are going to go that route what was the point of extending Bregman? He cant win on his own and we dont have depth to replace those guys and wont get much else from trading ZG...do you think we would get enough for Correa to replace all those guys? He is a rental to whomever he is traded to unless its a big dollar club who thinks they can resign him and those clubs dont usually have great prospects because they spend them early to get established guy

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I don't agree with alot of your implications but agree with the overarching premise that we need to sign Correa. In other words, I don't think the reasons Crane would consider dealing him this offseason boil down to baseball operations or strategy.

1) We don't know his financial situation and the impact of revenue losses from Astros/his other businesses (seems like Tilman is about to start cutting Rockets payroll for this reason)

2) Crane was much more "embarrassed" by the scandal than most of our fans and may want to save face with his best friend Rob and fellow owners. Our core four hitters (Altuve, Bregman, Correa and Springer) are the faces of the scandal around the league. Altuve/Bregman are already locked up, but Crane has short term outs with Correa/Springer if he wants them.

And let me make perfectly clear... I'm not advocating for this. Just pointing it out as a possibility.

If he would do that, it would cement him as the dumbest owner in sports. How many people are out there apologizing and wiping out wins/losses for the steroid era? This is no different. Fans and other teams really don't care either. They all knew before the report came out over the off season, yet they still traded with the Astros. Free agents were still signed. Hell Tony Kemp is on the A's and he was on the team during it all. He can be embarrassed all he wants, other teams would love for him to blow up this team so they can pick up the pieces.

n_touch said:

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If he would do that, it would cement him as the dumbest owner in sports. How many people are out there apologizing and wiping out wins/losses for the steroid era? This is no different. Fans and other teams really don't care either. They all knew before the report came out over the off season, yet they still traded with the Astros. Free agents were still signed. Hell Tony Kemp is on the A's and he was on the team during it all. He can be embarrassed all he wants, other teams would love for him to blow up this team so they can pick up the pieces.

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Agree. In other words, Crane needs to grow a pair and not worry about what people think (including the commish).

n_touch said:

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If he would do that, it would cement him as the dumbest owner in sports. How many people are out there apologizing and wiping out wins/losses for the steroid era? This is no different. Fans and other teams really don't care either. They all knew before the report came out over the off season, yet they still traded with the Astros. Free agents were still signed. Hell Tony Kemp is on the A's and he was on the team during it all. He can be embarrassed all he wants, other teams would love for him to blow up this team so they can pick up the pieces.

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I agree. I'm just not 100% sure Crane sees it that way.

Crane is pretty widely known in business circles as a complete *******. Not exactly sure why he thinks he has a reputation to protect.

Well he would quickly find out if the idea was even floated as a rumor. That is a trade people would not let him live down.

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Well he would quickly find out if the idea was even floated as a rumor. That is a trade people would not let him live down.

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He could be pissed at Correa right now for going total badass MFer in the playoffs and making any plan to trade him impossible to pull off

I don't see Correa being traded, mainly because baseball has changed and I don't think you can get a big haul for a one year rental. If anything I think it's more likely they would extend Correa and trade Bregman, who has significantly more trade value with his health history and contract status. Not saying I love that idea but I think you could get a pretty monster haul for Bregman if you're looking for more young, controllable pieces. They've said competing for a decade is their objective, you can't do that without restocking on young, cheap talent at some point.

yes, Greinke is the trade piece...preferably back to the National League.

Astros could use more prospects at C, 1B, and outfield

Marvin said:

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ChAg1799 said:

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Okay a questions for all you payroll nerds...

How does MLB treat a Justin Verlander's salary at $33 M when he isn't playing? I know that the Astros have insurance, but it can't count against the cap right? I have to believe that we should be able to keep a Springer/Bradley especially when 75% of our pitching staff is 2 years or less of MLB service. Click needs to figure this crap out.

We also have some arbitration guys, like Correa and McCullers who will get a bump. (I would expect) Osuna is also going arbitration eligible, but didn't play and probably will miss most of 2021...

SO, what is our REAL salary?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/HOU/houston-astros-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/yearly/payroll/

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I posted this last week after hearing it on the MLB Radio channel...

• Verlander's salary 100% counts against the luxury tax, regardless of his status.
• Insurance typically kicks in 180 days after a disclosed injury, and will amount to 75-80 cents on the dollar.

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That freaking SUCKS, and is major BS. Why would any club/players agree to this rule during collective bargaining?

agree to what? the luxury tax or how injured player is treated?

MAROON said:

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Crane is pretty widely known in business circles as a complete *******. Not exactly sure why he thinks he has a reputation to protect.

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Not defending it, or saying it's the only path to riches, but a huge percentage of successful business people are considered complete *******s. Narcissism and arrogance fuel many a C-level tank.

BMX Bandit said:

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agree to what? the luxury tax or how injured player is treated?

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Well, the luxury tax for playes injured for 99%+ of a season. One would think that having these players count against the luxury tax it would make the owners think twice about signing players to huge contracts, and it keeps them from filling a gap when that player is out.
It doesn't make sense for the players or the teams, unless you are a team like the A's or Royals who get some of the excess tax money... every dang year.

Ag_07 said:

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My guess is that's a tool to keep teams from saying 'Oh well this old ass nonproductive player who we signed to a huge idiotic deal is 'injured' so he's out for the season. Now we have all this luxury tax space cleared'.

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I get nat ut when you have a legitimate player like Verlander who is out for basically 2 seasons... and he costs the team $66mill in those two seasons... it keeps the team from being able to do stuff like resign Springer. Its just an difficult pill to swallow, when you are going to lose both Verlander and the outfield... and it still keeps the team near the top of the salary tax threshold.

iamtheglove said:

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07ag said:

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astros only have 116 million committed for next season, and only altuve and bregman the 3 years after that,, they have room to do things if crane is willing to open the wallet for it. i'd bet his transport company is having a great year, so who knows

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So I spent the afternoon building a spreadsheet to see what it would take to sign Brantley for another 2 years at $16m Per year, Springer for 5 years at $35m per year and Correa for 8 years at 35m per year. Pulled data from spotrac. Believe it or not, it actually is possible without crossing the luxury tax threshold.

You have to assume the above 3 would take those or similar deals, that you aren't re-signing JV or Greinke (and preferably trading Greinke For prospects this off season, though not required) and that you release Osuna and Devo and don't re-sign Reddick and Peacock. Those last 4 moves give you $29m that can be applied to Springer in 2021. No JV and Greinke in 2022 helps pay for Correa, Bregmans bump from $12m to $30m and a few guys hitting their first year of arbitration that year. Also assumed are things like we sign the Cuban outfielder Pedro Leon and he slots in for Brantley in 2023.

All of this is made possible thru 2024 because we have a slew of very good players who are either under team control (thus making about $560,000) or going into first year of arbitration in the next couple years (including Framber, Urquidy, Tucker, Yordon).

It also assumes we don't sign McCullers in 2022, so you have to be comfortable with our starters being Framber, Urquidy, Javier, Garcia and Whitley and the back end of our bullpen being Paredes and Taylor after 2022 (assumes you don't re-sign Pressley after 2022).

If I could figure out how to post the spreadsheet I would, but alas I'm an old

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Checking out spotrac, we sit 6th highest at 153 M in Lux Tax Salary. If we take Osuna and Devo off we're still on the hook for 140 M. Assuming no changes for everyone else, that moves us down to 10th or 11th. in 18-20 We've been 8th, 9th, and 4th in payroll (not luxury tax salary, it's different and hard to keep separate). I have a very hard time believing we'd be willing to add more than 20 M for 2021. We need more than just 1 OF (bringing George back). We're going to need to go bargain bin shopping for more bullpen and outfielders. I think JV and Greinke put us out of the Springer market, but it squarely puts us in the Correa market in 2022.

The harder pill to swallow is that there was probably no way he was getting out of TJS and still tried to come back this year. If he would have done it, he would have had time to rehab and be back mid next year for run. Now he is out all next year and I would doubt if he pitches in a Astros or any other uniform again.

I question if he could have come back. He's no spring chicken. He's going to take longer to rehab that arm. Maybe if he gets it done in Aug, he's back for the postseason, but I wouldn't bet on it.

n_touch said:

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The harder pill to swallow is that there was probably no way he was getting out of TJS and still tried to come back this year. If he would have done it, he would have had time to rehab and be back mid next year for run. Now he is out all next year and I would doubt if he pitches in a Astros or any other uniform again.

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The number of players that do this just baffles me. Pruitt recently had surgery, if I recall, and he's been out all year.

Farmer1906 said:

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iamtheglove said:

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07ag said:

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astros only have 116 million committed for next season, and only altuve and bregman the 3 years after that,, they have room to do things if crane is willing to open the wallet for it. i'd bet his transport company is having a great year, so who knows

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So I spent the afternoon building a spreadsheet to see what it would take to sign Brantley for another 2 years at $16m Per year, Springer for 5 years at $35m per year and Correa for 8 years at 35m per year. Pulled data from spotrac. Believe it or not, it actually is possible without crossing the luxury tax threshold.

You have to assume the above 3 would take those or similar deals, that you aren't re-signing JV or Greinke (and preferably trading Greinke For prospects this off season, though not required) and that you release Osuna and Devo and don't re-sign Reddick and Peacock. Those last 4 moves give you $29m that can be applied to Springer in 2021. No JV and Greinke in 2022 helps pay for Correa, Bregmans bump from $12m to $30m and a few guys hitting their first year of arbitration that year. Also assumed are things like we sign the Cuban outfielder Pedro Leon and he slots in for Brantley in 2023.

All of this is made possible thru 2024 because we have a slew of very good players who are either under team control (thus making about $560,000) or going into first year of arbitration in the next couple years (including Framber, Urquidy, Tucker, Yordon).

It also assumes we don't sign McCullers in 2022, so you have to be comfortable with our starters being Framber, Urquidy, Javier, Garcia and Whitley and the back end of our bullpen being Paredes and Taylor after 2022 (assumes you don't re-sign Pressley after 2022).

If I could figure out how to post the spreadsheet I would, but alas I'm an old

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Checking out spotrac, we sit 6th highest at 153 M in Lux Tax Salary. If we take Osuna and Devo off we're still on the hook for 140 M. Assuming no changes for everyone else, that moves us down to 10th or 11th. in 18-20 We've been 8th, 9th, and 4th in payroll (not luxury tax salary, it's different and hard to keep separate). I have a very hard time believing we'd be willing to add more than 20 M for 2021. We need more than just 1 OF (bringing George back). We're going to need to go bargain bin shopping for more bullpen and outfielders. I think JV and Greinke put us out of the Springer market, but it squarely puts us in the Correa market in 2022.

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The only thing I would add as a counter to this is that Verlander's salary will be compensated. Luxury tax will still apply, but cash out of Crane's pocket won't be as bad.

Can we offload Gurriel on someone this offseason for an outfield prospect or two?

ChAg1799 said:

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Ag_07 said:

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My guess is that's a tool to keep teams from saying 'Oh well this old ass nonproductive player who we signed to a huge idiotic deal is 'injured' so he's out for the season. Now we have all this luxury tax space cleared'.

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I get nat ut when you have a legitimate player like Verlander who is out for basically 2 seasons... and he costs the team $66mill in those two seasons... it keeps the team from being able to do stuff like resign Springer. Its just an difficult pill to swallow, when you are going to lose both Verlander and the outfield... and it still keeps the team near the top of the salary tax threshold.

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this is what happened to the Red Sox with Sale and Pedroia. Paid those 2 guys over $40 MM to do nothing in most of 2019 and all of 2020.

it's the hazard of having $30 MM players. When they have a season-ending injury...it's a really bad deal

That is a fair point. I highly doubt we'd spend to the Luxury amount, but maybe we'll get a little closer to it with Crane getting some of the JV money back.

This may be unpopular, but the"moneyball" As, Rays, smart baseball, way would not be to sink 125 M on an OF in their 30s, but find pieces that can do things well and put in them a position to succeed. Sign JBJ or bring back Jake because they can dominate in defense in center so that we can afford an aging slugger for the corner or possibly Yordan at times. Sign Pederson who can only play vs righties to go along with Michael Taylor who can play multiple positions in the OF and hit lefties.

Not sure how accurate this ends up, but it's based on recent signings and not just shooting from the hip.