***** Official Houston Astros 2026 Season Thread *****

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tjack16
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In reply to Ag_07 • 2:47p, 5/7/26
AG
Ag_07 said:
Are we not at a 100 loss level right now here in 26?

Hell if that's gonna be the product might as well do it while getting something out of it.


I think we end up around 75-87 personally. We will get better (if/when) Hader, Imai, Pena, Loperfido, Meyers, and Brown come back + play to their averages. But it'll be a long summer and we know other injuries will pop up
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Wabs
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In reply to SpaceCityAg05 • 3:54p, 5/7/26
AG
SpaceCityAg05 said:
It is crazy to see mock drafts with neither of those guys in Round 1. I get why the scouts love Hacopian despite his more frustrating than expected season, but it is wild to see him so high up on Round 1 boards and guys like Sorrell and GG left off.

I think GG would be the only Ag that I would take in the 1st round. Sorrell has a lot of holes in his swing - lots of swing and miss. Haco is a really good player and he's gritty - I just don't see him as a 1st round talent. Maybe 3rd or 4th round.
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MaxPower
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In reply to SpaceCityAg05 • 4:14p, 5/7/26
SpaceCityAg05 said:
I should also add that I think we need to target college players with our early picks in the upcoming draft. Guys that can be here and producing by 2028.

I would really look at a guy like Gavin Grahovac with the comp pick at the end of Round 1. Big bat potential along with corner IF/OF versatility in outlook.
Caden has big issues with swing and miss so don't see that happening. Robbins from Texas has similar issues. 1B don't typically go in the first unless they are elite so Gavin is unlikely as well. I don't really care for the college bats in the mid to late first. They all have swing and miss issues except Curiel who is a bit slappy. Plus Dana seems to suck at drafting college bats. I'd prefer either pitchers or HS bats for their upside. Trevor Condon and Aiden Ruiz interest me the most in the HS class.

For college bats, the depth is decent in rounds 2-4. Carson Beck is a more legit CF than Sorrell or Robbins with better hit tool data. Tyler Head is similar to Curiel as an elite hit tool CF with questionable pop. Caden Farrero is probably my favorite sleeper guy. He's a 0 for defense but the analytics on his combined swing decisions, contact rates, and exit velocities are top 5 in the class.
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Chef Elko
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In reply to superaggie73 • 4:20p, 5/7/26
AG
superaggie73 said:
agproducer said:
linkdude said:
People looking to go back to Luhnow are clinging to the past. Crane's job is to find the next Luhnow, not chase past faded glory, IMO.

It's not a clinging-to-the-past exercise for me. It's a what-if?

I don't think there is a chance Crane would ask Luhnow back or even Luhnow taking the job.

It's just a curiousity thing.

I agree that Crane needs to find the next Luhnow and stop meddling because Dana ain't it.


Crane needs to sell the team. He will never allow what needs to be done to get this team back to where it needs to be. There are almost no owners that would allow a gut job to rebuild after getting a team to the top and seeing the team's value significantly raised. Crane would lose equity if he allowed a rebuild. Because of that he's going to keep us in purgatory for the long haul.

This is what I think as well. Even though he bought the team for $600MM-ish, had high profit margins and raised the value to the $1B+ range, no way he is going to punt seasons and kill the current valuation. Even though he's made a ton, its never enough with most of the super wealthy.

I hope he gets sick of having a losing/mediocre team and wants to win more than add some zeros on his personal financial statement. I truly thinks he wants to win more than a lot of owners, but I don't think it's enough to stomach losing millions of dollars in profit each year and lop off hundreds of millions in franchise value.
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MaxPower
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4:27p, 5/7/26
Would you do this trade? Seth Hernandez is the highest ceiling pitching prospect in baseball. Florentino is probably a top 5 pure hitting prospect in the minors. I wouldn't mind seeing the Pirates actually go for it now that they have a decent team.

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Chef Elko
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In reply to MaxPower • 4:38p, 5/7/26
AG
If we plan on trading Pena and Yordan for more pieces to go with these guys, probably.
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Marvin
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In reply to Beat40 • 5:10p, 5/7/26
AG
Beat40 said:
Are we saying on this board to fix the Astros is only binary? Either spend like the Dodgers and Yankees or gut everything and gamble in the 100-loss realm?

It feels the jump to gutting everything and enduring 100-loss seasons is because the organization was successful at doing it once.

Is there really no path that makes this team better over the next 5 years without gutting everything or spending at Dodgers and Yankees levels?


Having little talent in the minors takes away much of the middle. You see what average starters are worth in free agency, and you see the risk of signing fringe/foreign players. So, for the most part YES, that leaves a simplified solution- spend big and hope you're the Dodgers and not the Mets, rebuild and hope you're the Rays and not the Orioles, or sign another set of fringe players and hope you're the 23 Rangers and not the 26 Astros. Which lottery ticket do you want to buy (lol)?
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CharleyKerfeld
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5:30p, 5/7/26
You guys are slipping. Probably because off-days mean we're guaranteed not to lose.

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SpaceCityAg05
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In reply to MaxPower • 5:36p, 5/7/26
AG
I agree about the added swing and miss risk with Sorrell.

The scouts don't seem to be viewing GG as a pure 1B though. Many of them are talking corner OF. He certainly can play 3B/1B. The positional versatility should add to his prospect value. I see him as having some similarities to collegiate Cam Smith with GG having less-elite athleticism but perhaps a better bat.

To me, his biggest flag, like Sorrell, was swing and miss, but junior GG has made MASSIVE strides in that area as he keeps developing.
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SpaceCityAg05
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5:40p, 5/7/26
AG
I should add one underlying bias that I have influencing my draft/prospect thinking here.

In my opinion, Dana, like many scouts, falls in love with traditional scouting "tools" and therefore puts a premium value on the speedy/athletic guys that can potentially play all the positions. That has value, but I feel like every guy the Astros have targeted the last several years has a scouting report like this: elite athleticism/speed, emerging power, intriguing positional flexibility, questions as to whether hit tool will ever translate.

The problem is, very few of Dana's guys ever seem to have the hit tool translate. And so we end up with a bunch of AAAA OF and middle IF that flash talent but can't stick because they can't hit their weight against ML pitching.

I don't want to draft DH/1B only guys with high picks, but drafting a guy that can't play CF or SS is not the end of the world if they can rake.

The CF/SS that can rake all go top half of the first round for a reason. If you don't pick there, you need to mix in some less athletic guys that can rake along with your toolsy defenders in your class.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Beat40 • 6:04p, 5/7/26
Beat40 said:
Are we saying on this board to fix the Astros is only binary? Either spend like the Dodgers and Yankees or gut everything and gamble in the 100-loss realm?

It feels the jump to gutting everything and enduring 100-loss seasons is because the organization was successful at doing it once.

Is there really no path that makes this team better over the next 5 years without gutting everything or spending at Dodgers and Yankees levels?

This is missing the fact that MOST teams in baseball are extremely profitable never having to do more than SEEM like they trying to be a .500 club.

We spent our entire history trying the "normal" ways to win it all. We failed every single time. We came close in a miracle year in 2005 and got curb stomped in the series by a fairly mediocre team.

The ONLY sustained, high-level, envy of the league success we have ever had was after a tired and stagnant owner sold the team and we went all in on going THE OPPOSITE direction. But just changing directions wasn't what worked. We brought in a true leader with a vision as GM and committed 100% to his plan from day 1. We sold everything of value, committed to the time it would take, and stuck to the plan.

What we're doing now, we aren't going to win anything.
If we hang on and try to upgrade every offseason, we aren't going to win anything.

We need fundamental change from top to bottom. Everybody goes. New leadership. New vision.

This wouldn't have been necessary had we made smarter decisions in 2023-2025. You either pay Bregman or you sell him a year early and collect a massive premium. You either pay Framber or you sell him a year early and collect a massive premium. Look at what Tucker got us. You don't start paying massive contracts to aging vets. We aren't the Yankees or Dodgers. We have to have a steady rotation of fairly cheap, young, infusions of talent to offset the guys we know we aren't going to be able to pay when they hit their window. That's the path we were on. Then we decided to get NOTHING for some of our biggest chips that could have replenished us. At the same time, we decided to flip any prospest with value for 2 month chumps who did absolutely nothing for us. That's NOT how we got here. That's the Drayton Mclain playbook that got us into the mess that the last fire sale had to get us out of.
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MaxPower
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6:37p, 5/7/26
Agree with this guy I'd be ecstatic if we can get Flukey. He has Grindlinger as a backup, who is a two way HS player as both an OF and LHp. I wouldn't be too excited about Thome with our second pick. Take Ruiz if you want a SS. Switch hitting SS and best defender in the class.

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superaggie73
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In reply to MaxPower • 7:40p, 5/7/26
AG
MaxPower said:
Agree with this guy I'd be ecstatic if we can get Flukey. He has Grindlinger as a backup, who is a two way HS player as both an OF and LHp. I wouldn't be too excited about Thome with our second pick. Take Ruiz if you want a SS. Switch hitting SS and best defender in the class.



Is there anyway you can post this for those of us who don't subscribe?
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MaxPower
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In reply to superaggie73 • 8:44p, 5/7/26
Unfortunately it's in some weird format with drop downs. Any particular team or players you are interested in?
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CharleyKerfeld
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8:55p, 5/7/26
Nick Lodolo is getting his first start of the year for Cincy tomorrow. He's been injured. I picked up in fantasy baseball, so either an 8 inning 1 hitter with 14 strikeouts or the Astros score 9 runs in the first inning.
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linkdude
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10:29p, 5/7/26
AG
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BTKAG97
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12:43a, 5/8/26
AG
Costanza was optioned back to Sugar Land yesterday.

Is there a chance we will finally see Ullola in an Astros uniform this weekend? He can be called up now to avoid acruing 172 days of service time, but they may wait until June to prevent an early Super-2 designation at the end of 2027 or 2028. Or is expected the Astros will just wait until September call-ups?

Nate Pearson's rehab assignment has been 16 days, 11 for Imai, and 3 for Hader.

Colton Gordon is the next man in the return call-up rotation, then Jayden Murray, then Ryan Weiss (going by longest time since they were last optioned) if it's not Pearson or Ullola.
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MaxPower
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4:49a, 5/8/26
They have us taking Curiel here. Really good hit tool with excellent swing decisions and contact rates. The question is whether you can get him to tap into power. He has a low pull-air rate so addressing that would likely be the easiest path to increasing power output.

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/mlb-pipeline-2026-mock-draft-may-7.html
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MaxPower
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8:03a, 5/8/26
This scares me a lot. Mainly because if this is Crane's attitude I could easily see him saying we aren't trading guys under contract in 2027 because we are going to "fight" again next year. The only way we are competitive next year is if he is willing to cowboy up and bring in a Skubal or Freddy Peralta to fix this rotation (maybe that is the plan but I'm skeptical given our nickel dime approach this year).

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Wabs
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8:08a, 5/8/26
AG
Cranes' preference is to "fight" if there is a chance. Technically there is a "chance" until you're mathematically eliminated. Also, what does "fight" mean to Crane? Does it include spending more money on players?
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Buck Compton
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8:41a, 5/8/26
AG
I don't think there's even going to be a 2027 season, so don't let that into your decision calculusā€¦
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superaggie73
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In reply to Wabs • 8:41a, 5/8/26
AG
Wabs said:
Cranes' preference is to "fight" if there is a chance. Technically there is a "chance" until you're mathematically eliminated. Also, what does "fight" mean to Crane? Does it include spending more money on players?


Fight means keep doing what we are doing in no man's land and hope we get lucky and all the stars align. It means don't trade away marketable talent and keep until contract runs out and also means don't go over luxury tax since he's choosing profit over winning. And finally it means no trading away everybody because he'll lose equity he has in the team since his purchase if he does. We are now being run as a profit center instead of trying to do what it takes to win. That's why there is no urgency for change and that's why we just let contracts run out even when it's obvious way in advance the guys aren't in place to win.
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MaxPower
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In reply to Wabs • 8:43a, 5/8/26
Wabs said:
Cranes' preference is to "fight" if there is a chance. Technically there is a "chance" until you're mathematically eliminated. Also, what does "fight" mean to Crane? Does it include spending more money on players?
That is the million dollar question. If they just wanted to go under the tax threshold for one year to reset penalties and plan to go back to 2025 levels in 2027 then I could buy into just some smaller moves this year (dump Abreu, one of Paredes and CW and maybe a Yanier). We just won't know the answer to that until the offseason but they better know the answer when deciding deadline plans.
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tjack16
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8:47a, 5/8/26
AG
If we are able to semi turn it around then I'm all for not being sellers at the deadline. But given the trend since the start of 2024, this is a 80-87 win franchise that is getting worse by the year.

So if we aren't above .500 by last week of July I think you have to sell what you can. But if we do find ourselves at .500 somehow, then yeah go for it this year
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n_touch
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In reply to Wabs • 8:52a, 5/8/26
Wabs said:
Cranes' preference is to "fight" if there is a chance. Technically there is a "chance" until you're mathematically eliminated. Also, what does "fight" mean to Crane? Does it include spending more money on players?

Unfortunately the slogan this year was correct "Chase the fight" we just were not aware of how slow the team was going to be. They will be chasing all the teams all year long.
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Mr.Bond
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9:09a, 5/8/26
AG
league leaders baby
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.
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Snake Jazz
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:12a, 5/8/26
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
Beat40 said:
Are we saying on this board to fix the Astros is only binary? Either spend like the Dodgers and Yankees or gut everything and gamble in the 100-loss realm?

It feels the jump to gutting everything and enduring 100-loss seasons is because the organization was successful at doing it once.

Is there really no path that makes this team better over the next 5 years without gutting everything or spending at Dodgers and Yankees levels?

This is missing the fact that MOST teams in baseball are extremely profitable never having to do more than SEEM like they trying to be a .500 club.

We spent our entire history trying the "normal" ways to win it all. We failed every single time. We came close in a miracle year in 2005 and got curb stomped in the series by a fairly mediocre team.

The ONLY sustained, high-level, envy of the league success we have ever had was after a tired and stagnant owner sold the team and we went all in on going THE OPPOSITE direction. But just changing directions wasn't what worked. We brought in a true leader with a vision as GM and committed 100% to his plan from day 1. We sold everything of value, committed to the time it would take, and stuck to the plan.

What we're doing now, we aren't going to win anything.
If we hang on and try to upgrade every offseason, we aren't going to win anything.

We need fundamental change from top to bottom. Everybody goes. New leadership. New vision.

This wouldn't have been necessary had we made smarter decisions in 2023-2025. You either pay Bregman or you sell him a year early and collect a massive premium. You either pay Framber or you sell him a year early and collect a massive premium. Look at what Tucker got us. You don't start paying massive contracts to aging vets. We aren't the Yankees or Dodgers. We have to have a steady rotation of fairly cheap, young, infusions of talent to offset the guys we know we aren't going to be able to pay when they hit their window. That's the path we were on. Then we decided to get NOTHING for some of our biggest chips that could have replenished us. At the same time, we decided to flip any prospest with value for 2 month chumps who did absolutely nothing for us. That's NOT how we got here. That's the Drayton Mclain playbook that got us into the mess that the last fire sale had to get us out of.

Perfectly said.
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iBrad
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9:32a, 5/8/26
AG
We were one win from playing in another WS in 2023, and you think trading Bregman that offseason was the correct approach? I understand your point, but Dana would have been crucified for that by many on this board.
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tjack16
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In reply to iBrad • 9:46a, 5/8/26
AG
iBrad said:
We were one win from playing in another WS in 2023, and you think trading Bregman that offseason was the correct approach? I understand your point, but Dana would have been crucified for that by many on this board.


Me personally I would have tried everything to extend him after 2023. We should've sold high on Framber last year but yeah trading bregman would have meant riots in the streets of Houston
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Mathguy64
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In reply to tjack16 • 9:55a, 5/8/26
AG
tjack16 said:
iBrad said:
We were one win from playing in another WS in 2023, and you think trading Bregman that offseason was the correct approach? I understand your point, but Dana would have been crucified for that by many on this board.


Me personally I would have tried everything to extend him after 2023. We should've sold high on Framber last year but yeah trading bregman would have meant riots in the streets of Houston

Framber made it impossible to "trade high" last year. Given he was never coming back here, getting the comp pick for him was all we were ever getting.

That heater to Salazar's chest was devastating on many levels.
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Beat40
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 10:12a, 5/8/26
I agree with a lot of what you say, but I think the key point in your post is leadership and talent. What made that 100-loss plan work was good leadership and people who were good at their jobs under said leadership. It wasn't just doing the opposite of what had been historically done prior.

The organization has had periods of sustained success, just not at the level of winning a WS. Unfortunately running into the 90s 3-headed HOF monster in ATL derailed a lot of those good teams. The ultimate goal is to win a WS, yes, but sustained success also includes getting to the playoffs year over year with some elite pieces to give yourself chances.

The Astros have not only had change at the top in the GM, but they've had a lot of talented people poached from the organization, so I don't disagree with changes within the organization are warranted. If those changes are made, but they are sucky leaders and the people are not very good at what they do, it will be that much harder to claw out of 100-loss seasons.

I think voluntarily putting yourself in position to lose 100 games a year carries some major risks that get over looked over because it worked one time in our organization's history with excellent results.

If the focus is 2028, there are ways to get to that point by trading some players and keeping others to combine with the cash that frees up at that point.
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Faustus
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In reply to MelvinUdall • 10:17a, 5/8/26
MelvinUdall said:
CharleyKerfeld said:
agproducer said:
AgSportsFan89 said:
Silent For Too Long said:
If I told you tonight's winning pitcher use to pitch in Japan, you all would have assumed it was Peter Lambert, right?


Need him to find a way to rub off on Imai


Imai can stay in AAA. Let him figure it out there the way the Doyers did with Sasaki.

Speaking of, Imai pitched 3 innings tonight, allowing 1 hit, 1 earned run, striking out three .... and walking 5.

But the next guy out of the pen was a sight for sore eyes. JOSH HADER. 1 inning, no hits, 1 walk, 1 strikeout.



The Astros are about to be on the hook for $60 million over the next 3 years for a subpar playerā€¦stop me when you have heard this before.


Nothing's changed
We still love poo, oh, we still love poo
Only slightly, only slightly less than we used to, . . .
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Marvin
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10:40a, 5/8/26
AG
Sounds like the Astros are setting up shop in purgatory for the next few years. It is EXACTLY the place many of us feared. This strategy will fail spectacularly at winning titles. The "fight" will be to remain in the wild-card conversation past August.

They're my team and I'll still root for them, but ugh. This is going to suck.

Sorry for the Eeyore moment.
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CharleyKerfeld
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11:52a, 5/8/26
The only way they trade Yordan is if somebody really overpays for him, meaning multiple, already established good players - probably pitchers - and that organization's very best minor league prospects. It has to be like a fantasy sports trade where you receive the offer and you press "ACCEPT' as fast as you can before the other guy realizes what an idiot he is.

This isn't basketball or football where you have confidence that multiple draft picks will balance out what you're losing. Until then, play Yordan every day and maximize what you're getting out of him now.
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iBrad
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12:00p, 5/8/26
AG
I get the doom and gloom, but we are still sitting sixth in the majors in runs scored. If our pitching staff was average or even a little below, we'd be leading the division talking about what additions we could make to make us a contender.

If we can get pitchers off the IL and boost our staff to average, I'm curious to see how things play out. That's a big if, though. Health is obviously not a strength of this team.

I'm just not quite in blow it up mode. Check back in late June.
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