Houston..we have a problem....

7,457,915 Views | 28876 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by txaggie_08
htxag09
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I don't think any favorable regulations will really help these companies like chevron and bp. They already have the personnel and departments in place to navigate them globally. They'll help family owned companies and/or start ups doing one rig. Or that's at least my perspective. Could absolutely be wrong, though.

Which brings to why trump is doing this. He wants lower energy prices. Input costs: rigs, octg, etc., are settling from a few years ago but are still up. More smaller companies and more rigs means more demand so costs could creep back up. Tariffs are also expected to raise pricing. OCTG has risen ~5%.

Lower commodity prices and increased input costs give no reason for operators to abandon their recent stint of capital discipline.

The focus on acreage and runway are also no reason to.

So, if your 3-5 year plan is flat activity wise, but shareholders still expect increasing stock prices and you're likely still staffed from expansion….layoffs…
gougler08
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Throw in continued advancements with AI and whatever else comes out over the next few years on top of the shareholder pressure for growth and that will continue to mean run leaner as well
htxag09
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Yep. Was just going to edit my post to add increase efficiency from technology
cajunaggie08
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Petrino1 said:

gougler08 said:

cajunaggie08 said:

bp doing a 5% reduction of jobs and sending some roles to Malaysia, India, and Hungary

https://www.chron.com/business/article/houston-bp-layoffs-20040507.php
I just assume all O&G majors will be doing RIF round 2 here in 2025
Just curious, why is this the case? Oil prices have been hovering around $70-80 for the past 2 years or so. With Trump in office, oil companies will presumably get more favorable treatment/regulations for the next 4 years.
It doesn't how many regulations are removed and leases opened up if the demand isn't high. The majors are international companies and while the US is a large chunk of operations it isnt the majority of their operations so they only care about the price of crude. If smaller players are going to add to to the supply of crude on the market to boost the American market share then the price will go down and therefore the stock price for the majors will go down.
Dan Scott
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It's a commodity. Commodity companies make more money when there is less supply. The cost benefit of fewer regulations is far lower than the upside from the price.
cajunaggie08
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https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-calls-1-trillion-saudi-investment-lower-oil-prices-2025-01-23/

Quote:

He also called on the Gulf nation (Saudi Arabia) to cut oil prices, saying that could help end Russia's war in Ukraine.

"If the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately. Right now, the price is high enough that that war will continue - you got to bring down the oil price," Trump said, speaking remotely by video link.

"They should have done it long ago. They're very responsible, actually, to a certain extent, for what's taking place," Trump added.
Comeby!
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I'm in the Middle East, currently sitting across from Saudi's and other middle eastern oil and gas execs. They'll do what they want to do no matter what trump says or does. Looking at where they are in the life cycle of their oil and gas industry…that can just sit back and let us deplete our assets (direct quote). Battery storage capability and nuclear development in the US, will take the air out of their sails (and control of global stroke) somewhat.
htxag09
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Washington Examiner: California lawmakers propose making oil companies liable for wildfires, payouts

Don't have a subscription so can't read the whole article....but lol

First paragraph:

Quote:

California lawmakers proposed making fossil fuel companies liable for natural disasters by allowing natural disaster victims and insurance companies to sue them due to their alleged impact on the environment. Wildfire experts, however, say that the state's poor water management and recent cuts to forest management are largely responsible for the state's worsening wildfires.
Charlie Murphy
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Thas sounds awesome, you hiring???
Welcome to the China Club

"Here's the pitch...POPPED it up! Oh man, that wouldn't be a home run in a phone booth."
-Harry Carey
Comeby!
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Join and get involved in SPE.
Gateman
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mts6175 said:

Spoke to someone today who works for UP and knew both who died. The train was going 75 mph, which is crazy to me through Pecos. There were no seatbelts in the locomotive, the conductor was bounced around all over inside and killed, the Engineer jumped (he's who passed at the hospital. The train also has a device that sends a signal out to make sure the track is clear, the signal was sent from the train, but for some reason it did not return back to the train, so it malfunctioned.

Truck was on the track for over an hour, called 911, police on site, and no one notified UP's dispatch that it was stuck on the tracks.

Ultimately this will fall on the trucking company and pilot car company, but it sounds like there were failures all over the place including TXDMV for sending it that route.
NTSB Preliminary Report recently released doesn't say much other than just a rundown of what happened and what the investigation will focus on. Max authorized train speed is 70 mph. Train was traveling at 68 mph, applied emergency brake and slowed to 64 mph at impact. The oversized load had been on crossing for 1 minute before collision.

Being in the RR Xing business, I looked at the crossing on Google Earth when this happened. You can see multiple gouge marks in the pavement directly adjacent to the crossing which is an obvious sign of low clearance. There were no Low Clearance warning signs posted (at least at the last time the Google Street View car went by). The pilot car should have seen the gouge marks and stopped the oversized low clearance load before the crossing and TXDOT should have never given a permit to a low clearance load like this to use this crossing in the first place.
redaszag99
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Username Checks Out!
Stat Monitor Repairman
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nosoupforyou
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anyone know who the buyer was?

ConocoPhillips has signed purchase and sale agreements for $600 million of noncore assets in the Lower 48, the company said during a Feb. 6 earnings call.

The buyer or buyers of the assets weren't discussed on the call


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/conocophillips-sells-600mm-noncore-permian-142200510.html
BigLeftMiss08
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Scout & USEDC
Ag CPA
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Chevron laying off up to 20%, wow.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/chevron-will-slash-up-to-20percent-of-its-workforce-as-part-of-cost-cutting-plan.html
GCRanger
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Yep. Lots of restructuring coming. Tryingvimplement part of new org by July and 2nd part in Sept. No details on what that split looks like.

No detail on headcount reduction splits by function yet.
Sims
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Ag CPA said:

Chevron laying off up to 20%, wow.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/chevron-will-slash-up-to-20percent-of-its-workforce-as-part-of-cost-cutting-plan.html
Super, get to talk with the folks in India and Argentina more. What a joy that will be.
V8Aggie
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Sims said:

Ag CPA said:

Chevron laying off up to 20%, wow.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/chevron-will-slash-up-to-20percent-of-its-workforce-as-part-of-cost-cutting-plan.html
Super, get to talk with the folks in India and Argentina more. What a joy that will be.


don't get me started on BA….
Furlock Bones
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Ag CPA said:

Chevron laying off up to 20%, wow.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/chevron-will-slash-up-to-20percent-of-its-workforce-as-part-of-cost-cutting-plan.html


Ouch
Dan Scott
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Pretty incredible when you look at the careers of Mike Wirth and Darren woods.

They both became CEO about the same time. Chevron had just finished a big investment cycle and was pulling back. Mike wirth was praised for his capital discipline when he didn't overpay for Anadarko which left CVX in decent financial position during COVID to buy assets at low evaluations

Darren woods comes in and goes on a spending spree with his Grow the Gulf campaign. Exxon is cash flow negative and borrows to pay the dividend. Then Covid hits and he looks like a huge bozo with Chevron passing Exxon in market cap and getting b slapped by engine 1. It was a blessing in disguise. It forced Exxon to reevaluate their operations and trim fat. At the same time all those investments pre covid hit just as Russia invades Ukraine sending oil to $100 helping Exxon to $55B net income in 2022 and making up all the Covid losses in 1 quarter.

Darren woods now looks like a hero and Mike wirth is the bozo. Chevron is now plying catchup. The efficiency and restructure Exxon did post covid, Chevron is now playing catchup. Now Mike Wirth needs an event like Russia Ukraine war so TCO finally starts paying strong dividends.
Dan Scott
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"Our business is one of constant crisis interrupted by brief periods of intense success." - Monty Miller
PeekingDuck
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We had a whole thread arguing both sides in real time.
A_Gang_Ag_06
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Dan Scott said:

"Our business is one of constant crisis interrupted by brief periods of intense success." - Monty Miller


This sums up every day of my life in the mud business.
jetch17
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FANG buying Double Eagle?

https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/diamondback-energy-in-negotiations-to-acquire-double-eagle--wsj-93CH-3871160?ampMode=1
nosoupforyou
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oh boy - to have that out there while "another potential buyer could step in' just raised the price and anxiety

this happened to Enerplus last year - Devon made the headlines, and a few days later Chord swooped them and got it instead
txaggie_08
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Bloomberg making it sound like it's a done deal, will be announced tomorrow.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/diamondback-nears-permian-deal-buy-192903778.html

Quote:

Diamondback, the largest independent oil and gas producer in the Permian Basin, plans to formally announce the deal for Double Eagle as early as Tuesday morning, said the people, who asked to not be identified because the details are private. The transaction could be valued at more than $5 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing unnamed sources.
txaggie_08
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https://www.diamondbackenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/diamondback-energy-inc-announces-midland-basin-acquisition-1

Quote:

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FANG) ("Diamondback" or "the Company") today announced that it has entered into a definitive purchase agreement to acquire certain subsidiaries of Double Eagle IV Midco, LLC ("Double Eagle") in exchange for approximately 6.9 million shares of Diamondback common stock and $3 billion of cash, subject to customary adjustments (the "Double Eagle Acquisition"). The cash portion of this transaction is expected to be funded through a combination of cash on hand, borrowings under the Company's credit facility and/or proceeds from term loans and senior notes offerings.

As part of this agreement, Diamondback and Double Eagle have also agreed to accelerate development on a portion of Diamondback's non-core southern Midland Basin acreage. This acceleration is expected to bring forward Net Asset Value ("NAV") to Diamondback by developing Diamondback's lower quality acreage at a faster pace than current expectations. As a result, Diamondback expects significant Free Cash Flow growth in 2026 and beyond with minimal capital deployment through this accelerated development plan.
LoudAg
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DE V already picking up rigs!
MavsAg
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LoudAg said:

DE V already picking up rigs!
They aren't going to stop until Tech wins a natty, are they?
Marsh
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txaggie_08 said:

https://www.diamondbackenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/diamondback-energy-inc-announces-midland-basin-acquisition-1

Quote:

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FANG) ("Diamondback" or "the Company") today announced that it has entered into a definitive purchase agreement to acquire certain subsidiaries of Double Eagle IV Midco, LLC ("Double Eagle") in exchange for approximately 6.9 million shares of Diamondback common stock and $3 billion of cash, subject to customary adjustments (the "Double Eagle Acquisition"). The cash portion of this transaction is expected to be funded through a combination of cash on hand, borrowings under the Company's credit facility and/or proceeds from term loans and senior notes offerings.

As part of this agreement, Diamondback and Double Eagle have also agreed to accelerate development on a portion of Diamondback's non-core southern Midland Basin acreage. This acceleration is expected to bring forward Net Asset Value ("NAV") to Diamondback by developing Diamondback's lower quality acreage at a faster pace than current expectations. As a result, Diamondback expects significant Free Cash Flow growth in 2026 and beyond with minimal capital deployment through this accelerated development plan.



Anyone run any metrics/multiples on this? Subtracting a reasonable multiple per flowing barrel... And it seems like FANG is paying an outrageous amount for 342 net opportunities. Am I missing something?
Comeby!
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There's a post on Novi or Enverus on it. About 50% of the purchase price was PDP, the rest equated to about $6MM per location.
Chewy
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Any idea what Campbell is walking away with in this deal?
miller0926
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Any insight on the Apache layoffs today?
nosoupforyou
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My buddy in IT at APA made it through - he confirmed that with me this am - but I didn't ask him any insight - but he was very nervous
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