A consortium of US oil companies basically will have access to the Saudi Arabia of oil without major exploration spending. XOM made a new 52 week high oil in the 50s and trading a PE well above its historical average. US oil majors going to catch a huge bid.

This is largely overstated for Venezuela.

While you are probably right on their reserves being overestimated, there could also be a chance that these are underestimated, especially if you have more advanced and efficient (US) companies operating.

The gulf should benefit largely from this, right? The type of equipment you need to process their oil, isn't it pretty expensive, with only a few existing American refineries capable, mostly in the gulf? From what I've read, those refineries are already at capacity. But the oil is rich in ingredients that make a lot of high profit byproducts. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

My thinking is, let the dust settle, then short the **** out of Canadian oil. Bye bye crap Canadian oil.

txaggie_08 said:

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Does that include all our federal leases and Alaskan and offshore that are currently off limits?

Heineken-Ashi said:

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The gulf should benefit largely from this, right? The type of equipment you need to process their oil, isn't it pretty expensive, with only a few existing American refineries capable, mostly in the gulf? From what I've read, those refineries are already at capacity. But the oil is rich in ingredients that make a lot of high profit byproducts. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

My thinking is, let the dust settle, then short the **** out of Canadian oil. Bye bye crap Canadian oil.

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Certain refineries / operators in the GC should benefit. Operators like Valero which have refineries that are capable of refining VZ heavy, sour crude - not all of the GC refineries are capable of doing so. Increase in the supply of VZ heavy, sour crude -> decrease in the input price (feedstock) for these refinery operators -> increase in margins if demand remains stable.

As of this post, WTI trading pretty dang green. Plenty of chop will make it's way in one way or the other (as always), but it should speak to the perceived downside risk to oil that was en vogue in regards to VZ over the weekend.

There are so many hoops to be jumped through and stars aligned in order to repair/update Venezuela's infrastructure and boost production, and that is assuming we are working with an amicable government there.

Hoping for it as it would be good for Texas in numerous ways aside from further depressing prices, but I'm not optimistic this early.

This meeting of oil execs with Trump is something.

Hopefully Wirth and Chris Wright were elsewhere having serious discussions.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-venezuela-oil-executives-white-house-meeting.html

This looks like a raw deal for the producers, no support from the government besides "security guarantees" yet expected to spend $100B on marginal prospects at best. No potential recovery of settlement awards for COP or XOM.

Besides CVX ramping up incremental production I don't see this going anywhere, Trump will be gone before there is time to get the infrastructure rebuilt.

Sims said:

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Hopefully Wirth and Chris Wright were elsewhere having serious discussions.

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What serious discussion would Chris Wright be having?

Something about the next tweet Trump tells him to send?

Sims said:

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Hopefully Wirth and Chris Wright were elsewhere having serious discussions.

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They were.

Wirth is recovering from a knee replacement and couldn't travel

Ag CPA said:

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https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-venezuela-oil-executives-white-house-meeting.html

This looks like a raw deal for the producers, no support from the government besides "security guarantees" yet expected to spend $100B on marginal prospects at best. No potential recovery of settlement awards for COP or XOM.

Besides CVX ramping up incremental production I don't see this going anywhere, Trump will be gone before there is time to get the infrastructure rebuilt.

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It's too big of an agenda item for Trump. The majors will be in Venezuela faster than you think. Woods mentioned he was preparing a team to scope out the current condition of country infrastructure within two weeks. This administration isn't stupid, they understand the underlying conditions necessary to invest heavily in VZ. I will never bet against Trump when he really wants to get something done.

La Bamba said:

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Ag CPA said:

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https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-venezuela-oil-executives-white-house-meeting.html

This looks like a raw deal for the producers, no support from the government besides "security guarantees" yet expected to spend $100B on marginal prospects at best. No potential recovery of settlement awards for COP or XOM.

Besides CVX ramping up incremental production I don't see this going anywhere, Trump will be gone before there is time to get the infrastructure rebuilt.

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It's too big of an agenda item for Trump. The majors will be in Venezuela faster than you think. Woods mentioned he was preparing a team to scope out the current condition of country infrastructure within two weeks. This administration isn't stupid, they understand the underlying conditions necessary to invest heavily in VZ. I will never bet against Trump when he really wants to get something done.

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Well, it looks like the largest Major is already out and I'm sure XOM isn't going to lose any sleep over it; the have better options to deploy capital.

I support Trump but he is in over his head in this one.