quote:

---

Oil at $66.6. I don't know if that means I should buy or sell.

---

I'm certainly no expert, but there are variables working both in favor of slight increases and decreases in WTI in the short term. I think we'll see decent reports in the coming weeks regarding christmas spending (especially via online outlets), which in turn should increase short term demand for crude. On the other hand, its now appearing this winter could be drastically warmer than forecasted a couple months ago, which could lead to more crude hitting the market than forecasted. Although, this should affect natural gas price more so than crude. There obviously are a ton of more variables at play, but I would expect the price of crude to be nearing a bottom at least in the short term.

That being said, I'm not very convinced our "issue" with supply is going to allow long term futures for crude to be very bullish. We're extremely efficient at production, which isn't going to change. I see US companies in this industry across the board adjusting their capital spending to increase profit margins around $80 crude for the forseeable future. There's a lot of room for operators and service companies to become more lean. Once again, I'm no expert, still getting my PE degree to be exact, but I just don't see anything that would suggest a quick return to $100 crude. I'd love for you guys in the industry to prove me wrong, though. There are a ton of kids in my program and these colleges don't care how their increasing admissions rates are subsequently hurting us by flooding the market with hireable PEs. I personally don't think I'm a hirable candidate with $80 crude when there's about 3 times the amount of annual PE graduates than there were 3 or 4 years ago. I've quickly learned how volatile this industry can be. Its not for the wary, that's for sure.

A substantial emergency fund is your best friend in this industry.

I carry 8-12 months of expenses in savings. No exceptions.

Putting oil aside for a second - be prepared for a $2-handle on nat gas. The recent trends aren't promising and without a major cold snap we're likely to exit the winter at those levels.

quote:

---

A substantial emergency fund is your best friend in this industry.

I carry 8-12 months of expenses in savings. No exceptions.

---

In my personal situation, I was extremely wary of taking on student loans having already experienced just how gut wrenching it can be to not be prepared for a total breakdown in an (unrelated) industry. My dad, who is basically a textbook for risk-averse, well-planned financial living, didn't think the debt would be an issue given both of our propensities to prepare for the worst and how well everyone we knew in the industry was doing (and had been doing for decades, in some cases). He also knew very little about O&G and like most couldn't see this coming. I'm not on the edge of a cliff or anything thanks to my propensity to keep options open, but I am considering coming back to this degree at a later time. I don't want to derail the thread anymore than it has in the past page or so, but yes I agree with your post. Working in this industry, it is crucial to save and prepare for downswings especially when compared to other industries.

quote:

---

Putting oil aside for a second - be prepared for a $2-handle on nat gas. The recent trends aren't promising and without a major cold snap we're likely to exit the winter at those levels.

---

I'm a huge weather nerd, and what has happened meterologically in the past 2 weeks is unprecedented. A month ago, all of the successful models had all patterns pointing to another brutally cold winter. There have got to be some forecasters at trading firms feeling their seats a little warm right now.

quote:

---

quote:

---

Putting oil aside for a second - be prepared for a $2-handle on nat gas. The recent trends aren't promising and without a major cold snap we're likely to exit the winter at those levels.

---

I'm a huge weather nerd, and what has happened meterologically in the past 2 weeks is unprecedented. A month ago, all of the successful models had all patterns pointing to another brutally cold winter. There have got to be some forecasters at trading firms feeling their seats a little warm right now.

---

Not to derail, but could you explain a bit more on what part is "unprecedented"? And how does whatever that is, affect the next 3 mos?

quote:

---

probably because the only thing that's really happened is a price drop, and a lot of rumors and whispers

---

Seriously? Have you not attended any town halls?

quote:

---

quote:

---

quote:

---

Putting oil aside for a second - be prepared for a $2-handle on nat gas. The recent trends aren't promising and without a major cold snap we're likely to exit the winter at those levels.

---

I'm a huge weather nerd, and what has happened meterologically in the past 2 weeks is unprecedented. A month ago, all of the successful models had all patterns pointing to another brutally cold winter. There have got to be some forecasters at trading firms feeling their seats a little warm right now.

---

Not to derail, but could you explain a bit more on what part is "unprecedented"? And how does whatever that is, affect the next 3 mos?

---

Its unprecedented in that most of the long term models (month to 3 month approx predictors) in late September and October were lining up similarly to last years weather pattern which was drastically colder at this point and what it should be in the next 10 days.

Most of the professionals on a weather forum I frequent in September and October were predicting a similar season to last years. Which is late enough to have at least a broad view of what to expect. The only difference was a pattern indicating a slight el nino to emerge which would have a slight effect on snowfall. Apparently were now looking at a possible el nino much more apparent than expected, which typically results in a late onset of winter with unseasonably warm temps into late December for the midwest. Were looking at temps here in Oklahoma roughly 10 to 15 degrees higher than what they were last year at this time.

Its unprecedented in that its rare to have seasonal predictions change so drastically so late in the game, especially when we saw such an early pattern of strong artic fronts in early November. My guess is that natural gas was scheduled to be quite a bit higher in price at this time, although I know little about that as it is. Keep in mind, temps should dip to normal, just later in the season, but if an el nino persists we'll see a much more active tornado and hurricane season than we have the past few years, especially in the hurricane department.

I know they can't predict the future but nothing like sitting on storage fields packed to the gills with 70 degree weather in December. Being in natural gas, its been difficult lately in balancing with the current weather.

Crazy rumor for you guys.

Guy at gym says Shell is buying BP. He's a mid level manager at Baker

quote:

---

Crazy rumor for you guys.

Guy at gym says Shell is buying BP. He's a mid level manager at Baker

---

When was this? 1999?2000?2001?2002?2004?2005?2006?2008?2009?2010?2011?2012?

Wait they do say that every year don't they.

I work 2 weeks on a drilling rig then a week in the office. Definitely interesting seeing the difference in perspective from the office to field personnel, many of whom are contractors/consultants. I think we all expect prices will go up sometime in the not-too-distant future but what happens between now and then will be anyone's guess.

I think the most exciting thing right now is what is going on in the Business Development groups at big companies. Surely there will be some M&A activity that comes from all this. It would be exciting to be involved in that.

quote:

---

This thread, while not perfect, has been pretty good. With so many of us tied to energy, we should keep it going to gather the various perspectives. You never get so many viewpoints coming from one office.

---

I am an independent in Shreveport, class of "78", and am expecting lower oil prices for the foreseeable future. US shale oil has dramatically changed the supply side of the equation. I was hopeful nat gas would be stronger but it's price action recently has made me increasingly conservative. The last 13 years have been a real fun run but I am revising my 2015 budget downward. We have a son working for National Oilwell Varco in Pa. who hasn't saved a penny. I wouldn't be surprised to see him ask for his old room back one day. Ha!

I was surprised Sheffield squelched the idea of PXD acquiring someone during a downturn.

quote:

---

quote:

---

probably because the only thing that's really happened is a price drop, and a lot of rumors and whispers

---

Seriously? Have you not attended any town halls?

---

I know of several upcoming, yes. but aside from that, and the other things that happened several months ago in UAU I haven't heard anything.

quote:

---

quote:

---

Crazy rumor for you guys.

Guy at gym says Shell is buying BP. He's a mid level manager at Baker

---

When was this? 1999?2000?2001?2002?2004?2005?2006?2008?2009?2010?2011?2012?

Wait they do say that every year don't they.

---

Yeah, I saw that rumor surface again too.

quote:

---

Crazy rumor for you guys.

Guy at gym says Shell is buying BP. He's a mid level manager at Baker

---

My FIL (who worked for Amoco and then BP) brought that up last night. Apparently that rumoUr has been around for forever.

I don't think Shell would lower themselves to touch BP. Joking. Kind of...

quote:

---

I was surprised Sheffield squelched the idea of PXD acquiring someone during a downturn.

---

Didn't get to see the interview but is that what he said? I heard it was something to the effect of "when something is handed to you on a silver platter you have to at least look at it. "

quote:

---

Crazy rumor for you guys.

Guy at gym says Shell is buying BP. He's a mid level manager at Baker

---

Your buddy at the gym knows jack sh*t working at Baker. Just FYI.

Not gunna happen

Sue Ann Hamm: Because $1,000,000,000 ain't enough!!

Continental Resources is down over 50% in the past three months by the way.

Jesus, what a ruthless *****.

In her defense, $1 billion is only 6% of the believed $18 billion net worth. Well, what was $18 billion... Pretty sure that has been steadily declining over the past few months.

What did she do besides keep his dick warm?

Advised him to scrap all of Continental Resources hedges...

The EIA released an article stating that reserves as of YE 2013 (very timely) are now higher than they have been since 1975 http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=19071" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=19071.

Using 1975 as the start year and applying historical inflation rates to the average 1975 crude price would create a theoretical price of $37/bbl today. Food for thought.

I could do better than that for $1B

To do even a basic extrapolation like that, you'd probably want the burn rate as well as the supply rate.

I, along with 3 others, were given the job of predicting oil prices in 1980 while working for Getty. The short answer is it's impossible!

quote:

---

The EIA released an article stating that reserves as of YE 2013 (very timely) are now higher than they have been since 1975 http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=19071" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=19071.

Using 1975 as the start year and applying historical inflation rates to the average 1975 crude price would create a theoretical price of $37/bbl today. Food for thought.

---

Does the eia calculate based on absolute reserves or reserves relative to daily/weekly/monthly consumption?