Stock Markets

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Heineken-Ashi
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Proposition Joe said:

Not having the cash to deploy elsewhere is a completely separate issue.

If your reasoning for getting out of a position you feel still has room to run is so that you can free that capital up to invest elsewhere, then you are selling because you are over-invested and need capital - not because of some fabled "net free".

It's a risk management habit/strategy, but it's key to understand that doing so has likely left significant money on the table in a bull market (read: the last 4-5 years).

"going net free" a lot of the time is the same as "capping ones upside".

How so? If the money is going to something else productive, especially something that hasn't broken out and made its move yet, I'd argue you're worse off leaving your money in the stock that already made its move. But it depends on the setups and where you are in the process. Hard to slam any strategy without knowing details.

I can assure you though.. when I go net free, its because something better is brewing or the stock is about hit its head and at the very least take a long breather. Plus, you can ALWAYS get back in.
I bleed maroon
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

Proposition Joe said:

Not having the cash to deploy elsewhere is a completely separate issue.

If your reasoning for getting out of a position you feel still has room to run is so that you can free that capital up to invest elsewhere, then you are selling because you are over-invested and need capital - not because of some fabled "net free".

It's a risk management habit/strategy, but it's key to understand that doing so has likely left significant money on the table in a bull market (read: the last 4-5 years).

"going net free" a lot of the time is the same as "capping ones upside".

How so? If the money is going to something else productive, especially something that hasn't broken out and made its move yet, I'd argue you're worse off leaving your money in the stock that already made its move. But it depends on the setups and where you are in the process. Hard to slam any strategy without knowing details.

I can assure you though.. when I go net free, its because something better is brewing or the stock is about hit its head and at the very least take a long breather. Plus, you can ALWAYS get back in.

I'm with Heinie on this one. It's a prudent risk-management method, and does not necessarily cap one's upside (depending on how you reinvest the cash). Now, H-A and I may disagree on assessing future performance prospects at times, but taking a gain during short-term outperformance is a good way to sustainably build profit for less-experienced investors. The "reversion to the mean" principle is conservative, but keeping a portion of your holdings at work provides additional growth potential. It's also a good note-to-self to learn and add other methods (protective puts, covered calls) to achieve similar results.
Proposition Joe
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Heineken-Ashi said:

Proposition Joe said:

Not having the cash to deploy elsewhere is a completely separate issue.

If your reasoning for getting out of a position you feel still has room to run is so that you can free that capital up to invest elsewhere, then you are selling because you are over-invested and need capital - not because of some fabled "net free".

It's a risk management habit/strategy, but it's key to understand that doing so has likely left significant money on the table in a bull market (read: the last 4-5 years).

"going net free" a lot of the time is the same as "capping ones upside".

How so? If the money is going to something else productive, especially something that hasn't broken out and made its move yet, I'd argue you're worse off leaving your money in the stock that already made its move. But it depends on the setups and where you are in the process. Hard to slam any strategy without knowing details.

I can assure you though.. when I go net free, its because something better is brewing or the stock is about hit its head and at the very least take a long breather. Plus, you can ALWAYS get back in.


If you know a stock has "already made its move" so to speak, and you know another will soon be making its move... Then why are you not deploying 100% of your funds from one to the other? It's because there's no way truly to be certain.

Either you have enough capital to make certain future plays, or you don't. Going "net free" on something to get that capital is a bankroll issue.

Either you think the stock you correctly identified is still a good investment, or you don't. Going "net free" shouldn't impact that thought process.

It's not a slam on any kind of strategy - risk management as a whole varies from person to person. In a bull-market, "going net free" is typically going to cap your upside and leave money on the table. In a bear-market, "going net free" likely saves you money.

In short, its a mental hedge -- nothing more.
Heineken-Ashi
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Proposition Joe said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Proposition Joe said:

Not having the cash to deploy elsewhere is a completely separate issue.

If your reasoning for getting out of a position you feel still has room to run is so that you can free that capital up to invest elsewhere, then you are selling because you are over-invested and need capital - not because of some fabled "net free".

It's a risk management habit/strategy, but it's key to understand that doing so has likely left significant money on the table in a bull market (read: the last 4-5 years).

"going net free" a lot of the time is the same as "capping ones upside".

How so? If the money is going to something else productive, especially something that hasn't broken out and made its move yet, I'd argue you're worse off leaving your money in the stock that already made its move. But it depends on the setups and where you are in the process. Hard to slam any strategy without knowing details.

I can assure you though.. when I go net free, its because something better is brewing or the stock is about hit its head and at the very least take a long breather. Plus, you can ALWAYS get back in.


If you know a stock has "already made its move" so to speak, and you know another will soon be making its move... Then why are you not deploying 100% of your funds from one to the other? It's because there's no way truly to be certain.

Either you have enough capital to make certain future plays, or you don't. Going "net free" on something to get that capital is a bankroll issue.

Either you think the stock you correctly identified is still a good investment, or you don't. Going "net free" shouldn't impact that thought process.

It's not a slam on any kind of strategy - risk management as a whole varies from person to person. In a bull-market, "going net free" is typically going to cap your upside and leave money on the table. In a bear-market, "going net free" likely saves you money.

In short, its a mental hedge -- nothing more.

Because nothing is a certainty? I deploy a strategy that invests into what I consider high probability setups. But that doesn't mean they always work. The goal is high reward on minimal stop risk. But I don't deploy everything even into the best setups because that's the literal opposite of risk management. Some of us have been around long enough to know that there absolutely will be times that really really bad things happen. I would never expose myself that hard.

My system is simple. I don't expose more than 4% of my account into any one play, whether options or shares. If I have a clean stop on an entry, I assess what 1%-4% (depending on confidence in the setup) of my account would be lost should I get stopped. That determines how much I buy. If that ends up using a massive chunk of cash, I downsize the entry position.

You do you. Again, I can promise you that my strategy is very successful. I bet yours is too. I just preach risk management above all else. Because the majority of this board got their **** pushed in 2022, which was a fairly benign cool off in the grand scheme.
lck90
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AG
NBIS $

The purple & yellow money board has a long running thread on it. Hopefully reading it doesn't give me the aids, but it has made me a lot of money in the last few months. Shares and buying / selling calls.
Proposition Joe
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Heineken-Ashi said:

Proposition Joe said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Proposition Joe said:

Not having the cash to deploy elsewhere is a completely separate issue.

If your reasoning for getting out of a position you feel still has room to run is so that you can free that capital up to invest elsewhere, then you are selling because you are over-invested and need capital - not because of some fabled "net free".

It's a risk management habit/strategy, but it's key to understand that doing so has likely left significant money on the table in a bull market (read: the last 4-5 years).

"going net free" a lot of the time is the same as "capping ones upside".

How so? If the money is going to something else productive, especially something that hasn't broken out and made its move yet, I'd argue you're worse off leaving your money in the stock that already made its move. But it depends on the setups and where you are in the process. Hard to slam any strategy without knowing details.

I can assure you though.. when I go net free, its because something better is brewing or the stock is about hit its head and at the very least take a long breather. Plus, you can ALWAYS get back in.


If you know a stock has "already made its move" so to speak, and you know another will soon be making its move... Then why are you not deploying 100% of your funds from one to the other? It's because there's no way truly to be certain.

Either you have enough capital to make certain future plays, or you don't. Going "net free" on something to get that capital is a bankroll issue.

Either you think the stock you correctly identified is still a good investment, or you don't. Going "net free" shouldn't impact that thought process.

It's not a slam on any kind of strategy - risk management as a whole varies from person to person. In a bull-market, "going net free" is typically going to cap your upside and leave money on the table. In a bear-market, "going net free" likely saves you money.

In short, its a mental hedge -- nothing more.

Because nothing is a certainty? I deploy a strategy that invests into what I consider high probability setups. But that doesn't mean they always work. The goal is high reward on minimal stop risk. But I don't deploy everything even into the best setups because that's the literal opposite of risk management. Some of us have been around long enough to know that there absolutely will be times that really really bad things happen. I would never expose myself that hard.

My system is simple. I don't expose more than 4% of my account into any one play, whether options or shares. If I have a clean stop on an entry, I assess what 1%-4% (depending on confidence in the setup) of my account would be lost should I get stopped. That determines how much I buy. If that ends up using a massive chunk of cash, I downsize the entry position.

You do you. Again, I can promise you that my strategy is very successful. I bet yours is too. I just preach risk management above all else. Because the majority of this board got their **** pushed in 2022, which was a fairly benign cool off in the grand scheme.


You too often take a dissection of a concept as an attack on your success rate or strategy.

Two things can be true: You could have been wildly successful the last 5 years and you could have left a lot of money on the table.

Based on your post history and risk management and the insane bull market we've been in, you likely have done both.

It's ok to say those with a higher risk tolerance have turned out to be right the last 5 years -- as I'm sure when this house of cards inevitably does collapse you'll remind us how often you "warned us". Just because someone has been "more right" than you the last 5 years doesn't mean that you haven't been extremely successful.
techno-ag
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AG
Buck Compton said:

techno-ag said:

Don't look now but 52wh is only 1.32. We got close today, within 12 cents.
$0.12 is a 10% move up. So not exactly close
1.28 this morning. Within 4 cents.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
BucketofBalls99
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Seems like something spooked things a bit…
flashplayer
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AG
As high as everything was flying, my guess is gravity. That, or the bulls went to lunch.
Ranger222
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AG
BucketofBalls99 said:

Seems like something spooked things a bit…


The 1 PM ET "sell everything, enjoy the crazy gains, and let's get the weekend started" spook
El Chupacabra
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Doesn't look like I need to worry about my AMD 167.50 CCs being assigned this week. Another week of short term rental income.
GeorgiAg
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AG
I sold a chunk of my RCAT. Should have sold all of it. But now I am net free or whatever you call it. Got out near the top.
El Chupacabra
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Number Monkey said:

Anyone think MELI is a buy after the 14% drop over the last couple of days? I ask because I'm an owner that has seen my gain in it go from 30% to 11.5% and it's just really pissing me off tbh. Any opinions from the board?

Time to buy more?
plant science guy
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Got into selling covered calls because of the WWR thread. Decided to diversify a little because of the WWR thread.

On Yahoo Finance, looked at the big list of gainers for the day (on 9/26) and landed on ACHR because it was $9.70 a share and I could swing that in my learning account. Bought 100.

Sold a $10 call that expired that day (9/26) for $4 (total, not per share) to see what would happen. Didn't get called. Sweet, $4.

On Monday, sold a $11 call that expires today for $5 because that was the furthest from the current price that people were buying. It looks like it will get exercised, because it's sitting at $11.38 right now.

So I'm making $29 less than if I had just bought and sold, but it's my second week trading options and I still made $139 on the whole deal. I feel pretty ok about it.

What can I improve on?
flashplayer
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AG
plant science guy said:

Got into selling covered calls because of the WWR thread. Decided to diversify a little because of the WWR thread.

On Yahoo Finance, looked at the big list of gainers for the day (on 9/26) and landed on ACHR because it was $9.70 a share and I could swing that in my learning account. Bought 100.

Sold a $10 call that expired that day (9/26) for $4 (total, not per share) to see what would happen. Didn't get called. Sweet, $4.

On Monday, sold a $11 call that expires today for $5 because that was the furthest from the current price that people were buying. It looks like it will get exercised, because it's sitting at $11.38 right now.

So I'm making $29 less than if I had just bought and sold, but it's my second week trading options and I still made $139 on the whole deal. I feel pretty ok about it.

What can I improve on?

Roll that option out a bit if you still want exposure to upward movement in ACHR. Depends what you think it does short term. If you think it will rocket up to the high 13s soon like I do, then you are better off letting the call expire today and buying shares. If you think it might stagnate here or drop slightly, then you are better off rolling that call to next week at the same strike price to capture some more of the gain. If you think a sharp drop is in order, let it expire and then buy back in lower.
plant science guy
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What strike price and how far out would you say, IF I were to buy the shares back monday?

I may just take the gains and find another company in the $7-10 range and try again.
EliteZags
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AG
What gets crazy is when you get into something around that price then hold thru an insane PLTR/HOOD type run and then you're making 15-20%/week of your cost basis just selling CCs
plant science guy
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That's the goal!

Right now I'm just trying to make sure I click all the right buttons and don't accidentally lose all of my money because I zigged when I meant to zag.

Learned about a covered strangle. Looking forward to trying that out as well.
EliteZags
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AG
Or run the wheel and use the funds to sell puts on it at $10.50

Not sure if some upcoming catalyst but next wks premiums look more juiced both ways
flashplayer
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AG
plant science guy said:

What strike price and how far out would you say, IF I were to buy the shares back monday?

I may just take the gains and find another company in the $7-10 range and try again.

I don't think it's far fetched that ACHR could run to $14 by next week. It exploded up on big volume today and settled near resistance at 11.50. If it goes up from here there isn't a lot to stop it until just north of 12, and if it gets past resistance at that point there isn't much to stop it from hitting 13.50, and then the next resistance would be the May 16 high at around $14.

Given that, I wouldn't sell anything with a strike price under the $13.50 mark and no further out than October 17. If it ran past that to $15 and set a new 52 week high, I could live with getting most of the gain but missing out on a little. Personally I like the $14 calls as a sweet spot to maximize capturing gains on a run up and getting enough premium to make it worth the time.

That's just my opinion though, and I don't know anything. So proceed at your own risk. Seriously - I am just some guy who just started to learn a lot more about paying attention to trend lines, resistance levels, and big volume breaks through trend lines and resistance. I am curious what Heineken sees with his EW theory on ACHR. I will search and see if he has posted about it recently.
flashplayer
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

ACHR - You want it to hold $9 for the next long opportunity. Below that, nothing reliable.



Dug this up when he posted about it last month. Looks like maybe his wave count might agree with me on where it could be headed next.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Quote:

And it's incredibly stress free knowing you can never lose money on a position.


Except you can. The only way you can't is if you're putting everything you take back out into cash.

Your next investment could lose whatever your "net free" shares are worth and more.

It's a bit of mental gymnastics, but I can understand why some would frame it that way.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
El Chupacabra said:

I just want to know what stocks everyone is doubling up on all the time!


The only ones I've ever held long enough to double up on were DIS and AAPL through 20/21. Maybe LUV.
GeorgiAg
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AG
SAVA posted another solid 5% gain today. Maybe my bag holder position will pay off.

Or at least get me back up close where I'm not taking a bath on it.
Heineken-Ashi
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Heineken-Ashi said:

ACHR - You want it to hold $9 for the next long opportunity. Below that, nothing reliable.



Less reliable since it didn't hold retrace support and pretty much double bottomed. Stop at this though can be under $10.25. Holding $10.55 is most ideal and could lead to sooner upside expansion into the $12's.
Yukon Cornelius
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AG
True. But on that particular position you can't lose. Obviously on the next one you can. Which is why good entries are critically important to keep the compound effect going.
Heineken-Ashi
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Yukon Cornelius said:

True. But on that particular position you can't lose. Obviously on the next one you can. Which is why good entries are critically important to keep the compound effect going.

And like I always say, if you aren't entering with a stop that limits the loss to 10% or less, preferably 5% or less, then you are leaving yourself exposed.

If anyone is ever entering something, even if I don't agree, and you need a stop identified. Just shout at me.
flashplayer
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AG
I respectfully disagree that 10% is the right number for a stop upon entry. That can depend on a lot of factors. I am sure 10% has served you well. I would agree with you that having a plan and a thesis for each investment (anything that takes emotion and gut instinct out of the decision making) is the best approach. I also always enjoy your insights and value what you bring to this forum.

But using 10% as a general guideline may not be smart if you are long or even swing trading on that stock. You still end up having to time the market for that to work. And running away from something that drops 10% on what may be a bigger move that is going up can cost a lot of money. I am not pretending that I know better than you, but that is a brush too broad for me to accept as good advice.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
I dislike stops. They have rarely served me well when doing my swing trading.

For me I manage risk by creating buy and sell ladders. If the stock keeps falling, my lower orders will catch the dip.

Granted if could fall right through all of them and keep going, but in that case the only thing to do is grit your teeth and wait for the eventual bounce.

This is the downside that I'm willing to accept and has served me in the past.

Disclaimer is I only do this with ETFs and not single stocks, with the exception of BRKU which tracks BRKB.
aggies4life
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AG
Cathie has been buying baba n bidu for what seems like all this week!
RightWingConspirator
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I bought more. Every time that stock has shown weakness I've regretted not buying more. I purchased more today.
flashplayer
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Swing trade candidate came across my radar today: FDS (Factset Research Systems)

It has tanked recently but my amateur read of the chart suggests to me a decent chance there is some good support between where it is and the $275 area (currently trading at 282) and their chief legal officer just added 10% on what looks like an outright buy to his holdings a few days back at a higher price. It looks possible that this could bounce to the 320 area relatively easily.

On a drop to 264 I would probably bail and look for other opportunities.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
A buddy told me about QTUM. Wasn't familiar, but added to my watchlist. Not sure if I wanna buy but may jump in if we get a dip.
TTUArmy
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Big election news in Japan. More dovish monetarily policy in the works. Nikkei up 2.8%. Rat race in stocks to stay in front of inflation continues.



flashplayer
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AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:

A buddy told me about QTUM. Wasn't familiar, but added to my watchlist. Not sure if I wanna buy but may jump in if we get a dip.

I have been in it for a bit and it has treated me well. It went on a tear in September and jumped out of the top trend line of one of its channels Thursday and Friday on higher than normal volume. I still think it needs more evidence to confirm that and could jump back in the channel it has been in going back to late March if it is down to open this week. If it does come down a little this week the bottom of the channel is $100 by Friday but any significant volume/historical support is all the way down just at / under $95. I think I will buy more if it comes near $100 this week and even more if it drops down to 95 anytime soon.
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