Stock Markets

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PGAG
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:34p, 10/13/25
AG
Thanks! Good advice!
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flashplayer
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In reply to Yukon Cornelius • 7:35p, 10/13/25
AG
Yukon Cornelius said:
SP500 is down on the weekly? How is this a blowoff? Dips are getting bought very quickly yes. But what metrics are you seeing showing it's a blowoff?


I don't subscribe to the idea we are topping but moves like Friday and today back to back have my attention. Big risks and rewards out there right now. And I do agree that lots of what will ultimately be trash companies have insane valuations right now.
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FJ43
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In reply to PGAG • 7:35p, 10/13/25
PGAG said:
Thanks! Good advice!


Just a drive by from a degenerate trader brother.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:37p, 10/13/25
Did you finish your project?
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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 7:39p, 10/13/25
No. Extended a bit. Growth pace and pending contracts means juice is worth the squeeze.

But I miss this beyond belief.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 7:42p, 10/13/25
Mrs FJ is flying or coming with me every other week with this extra push. So she's volunteering at homeless shelters locally, shopping, volunteering then shopping again within a week. So I need to start trading again because now I'm going backwards.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:46p, 10/13/25
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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 7:47p, 10/13/25
ProgN said:


Thanks for rubbing it in. Still love you anyway.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Yukon Cornelius • 8:07p, 10/13/25
Yukon Cornelius said:
SP500 is down on the weekly? How is this a blowoff? Dips are getting bought very quickly yes. But what metrics are you seeing showing it's a blowoff?

Quote:
I'm not sure if we're in the final blowoff or still building up to it after another retracement.

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flashplayer
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8:14p, 10/13/25
AG
Futures looking nice right now up a quarter to third of a percent. Hopefully that holds through the morning and we fly a little bit longer.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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8:20p, 10/13/25
AG
TSM already back to its previous high and then some in overnight futures.
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 8:26p, 10/13/25
AG
I guess I misunderstood what you were conveying. Saying the sentiment was one of a blowoff and saying unsure if we are in THE final blowoff I took that you meant we were in some sort of one or something. My mistake.
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BenRev09
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8:29p, 10/13/25
AG
We're risk on until aggiedaniel shows up
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cjo03
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In reply to BenRev09 • 11:02p, 10/13/25
AG
BenRev09 said:
We're risk on until aggiedaniel shows up


shhhhhh, don't wake dan
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Brian Earl Spilner
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11:54p, 10/13/25
AG


And down we go...
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CheladaAg
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 12:09a, 10/14/25
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:


And down we go...

At what point does China just say "**** it" and just invade Taiwan? Seems like that day is coming closer.
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flashplayer
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5:58a, 10/14/25
AG
Ah. So yesterday was the bull trap and China bought puts.
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Mr.Milkshake
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 7:37a, 10/14/25
Heineken-Ashi said:
I'm probably going to get **** on for this, but it needs to be said. Days like today, following a couple months of space-bound trash, with really no meaningful retracements for months, and following a bad day that still didn't retrace the previous months much at all (zoom out on a chart and tell me how bad Friday was.. hint.. barely a blip).. the sentiment of this market is one of blowoff. I'm not sure if we're in the final blowoff or still building up to it after another retracement. But the last couple months are not normal. Not historically for healthy markets. I say all this to remind, yet again, even though there is likely higher to be had in many names.. to please protect your money. It's numbers on a screen. These valuations aren't real. The prices are a midpoint between bid and ask. Friday in crypto showed us what happens when the bid gets overwhelmed and there isnt enough of it. Whatever liquidity is providing a floor.. once its toppled.. it can be a quick ride down. And all those numbers on the screen can all of the sudden be much smaller. Do what you do. Ride the wave of awesomeness we're in. Have fun and make a killing. But please know it can end quick and reverse quicker. Im not saying sell everything. Im saying know your plan. And I'll keep saying it, because what always follows these regimes is not pretty.


1. The market is dominated by algo trading and market cap allocation. Corrections and 'bears' have become far more violent to the downside and upside. ~ Valuations don't price stocks, liquidity machines do. They don't matter and won't until there is a paradigm reset.

2. 2022-2024 was flat and we didn't clear it until mid 2024. We also just had a very large and violent correction a few months ago, confirmed support at multi year breakout. Sentiment is not through the roof, plenty of fear and skepticism. Theres not yet a big divergence. Not really the makeup of a blow off.
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flashplayer
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In reply to Mr.Milkshake • 8:03a, 10/14/25
AG
This is why I have not drawn down my stock holdings and don't plan to. But at the same time, I think Heineken is correct that on some of these stocks it may be time to get really wise and make sure you don't get caught with pants down.

I think there's a big difference being all in on NVDA and blue chips vs being all in on a name like some of these software, AI, nuclear, and rare metals names with no revenue. I am in all those but watching closely with a ready trigger finger. I'm not worried about my longs with great financials though. Those will be fine. But people will be ruined on some of these names if they abandon common sense and chase greed.
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flashplayer
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8:24a, 10/14/25
AG
Man, BTC is just the VIX's b**** lately. Pretty disappointing but that will probably be the new norm from here forward with all the institutional ownership.
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Got a Natty!
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In reply to flashplayer • 8:29a, 10/14/25
AG
I agree with this. Most of my investments are with a professional but I still handle some on my own for fun, hopefully profit and fun $$$.Thanks to this board and Covid my fun money has gone through the roof.

But I just spent the last hour setting Stop Loss sells on all of my speculative holdings such as OKLO. I am not selling all and am keeping some investment in just about all of these Stop Loss sells.

Now, if these sells kick in my biggest problems will be a tax problem. I hate paying taxes!
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ProgN
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8:36a, 10/14/25
Keep a sharp eye on the $VIX
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flashplayer
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8:46a, 10/14/25
AG
Looks like both SPY and NASDAQ testing Friday's low.
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to flashplayer • 8:52a, 10/14/25
AG
Btc has followed the market for a long time far more often than bitcoiners like to admit. Indont think the narrative of it being a hedge is true at all.
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El Chupacabra
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8:52a, 10/14/25
My buy button gets a little itchy on days like this...I think I'm going to restrain myself today. about 33% cash overall.
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LMCane
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In reply to flashplayer • 8:53a, 10/14/25
flashplayer said:
This is why I have not drawn down my stock holdings and don't plan to. But at the same time, I think Heineken is correct that on some of these stocks it may be time to get really wise and make sure you don't get caught with pants down.

I think there's a big difference being all in on NVDA and blue chips vs being all in on a name like some of these software, AI, nuclear, and rare metals names with no revenue. I am in all those but watching closely with a ready trigger finger. I'm not worried about my longs with great financials though. Those will be fine. But people will be ruined on some of these names if they abandon common sense and chase greed.


THIS

likely a bubble on the Quantum computing, but I think for me it makes sense to just hold even knowing it is going to go down bigly at some point soon

because if you are investing for ten years, it's impossible to really time the market as to when to get back in on RIGETTI

plus I have only $10K in each of them, so it's not like I bet my entire portfolio on QUTB.

but knowing the end to this massive bull run is coming really sucks.
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BucketofBalls99
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9:13a, 10/14/25
Green by close? (Or close to it?)
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flashplayer
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In reply to BucketofBalls99 • 9:14a, 10/14/25
AG
BucketofBalls99 said:
Green by close? (Or close to it?)

No way. This is the early morning trap. Way too calm with VIX at this level it seems like.
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Gaeilge
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9:16a, 10/14/25
Just took a nibble on AMD 11/21 $240C at $10. It is flagging on the daily basis, and it has been on a nonstop news cycle recently. The 11/21 carries into their ER as well
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ProgN
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In reply to BucketofBalls99 • 9:19a, 10/14/25
BucketofBalls99 said:
Green by close? (Or close to it?)

Don't be shocked if Trump shoots off a tweet in response to China along the lines of 'Bring it on, China will lose a trade war with the US'. Trump isn't one to let other countries get the last word. I'm just speculating but it fits more with his personality than 'ok, I'm sorry, we'll play nice'.
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flashplayer
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In reply to ProgN • 9:21a, 10/14/25
AG
Agree 100% which is why I sold covered calls on basically everything other than the rare earth metals names and bought calls on said names.
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BucketofBalls99
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In reply to ProgN • 9:22a, 10/14/25
Lol, that is very true
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EngrAg14
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In reply to El Chupacabra • 9:26a, 10/14/25
AG
El Chupacabra said:
My buy button gets a little itchy on days like this...I think I'm going to restrain myself today. about 33% cash overall.


I hear aggie national championship odds are good..
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to BucketofBalls99 • 9:28a, 10/14/25
AG
BucketofBalls99 said:
Green by close? (Or close to it?)

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Brian Earl Spilner
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9:30a, 10/14/25
AG
BBAI folks, where you at?
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