After bringing POWL to our attention he can eat wagyu ribeyes every meal IMHO.

WWR? Somebody should let them know they should purchase WWR too.

Not a ton to discuss when market is ripping ATHs except to watch stonk go up.

But, would like to hear from Hein and 30k again on their bear cases that have been discussed going back to tarrif crash through the Iran dump.

I've sayed long futures since buying the tariff crash.

Mr.Milkshake said:

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Not a ton to discuss when market is ripping ATHs except to watch stonk go up.

But, would like to hear from Hein and 30k again on their bear cases that have been discussed going back to tarrif crash through the Iran dump.

I've sayed long futures since buying the tariff crash.

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I'd love to see this too but it feels like HA may have taken a step back from the thread unfortunately. He seems to be just dropping in to give his sell moves on trades he previously posted about (all of which I have thankfully profited on by the way). I just ordered a book he previously recommended so I can start to understand some of the technical analysis stuff he excels at on my own.

spud1910 said:

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maroonbleeder said:

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Mr.Milkshake said:

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Not a ton to discuss when market is ripping ATHs except to watch stonk go up.

But, would like to hear from Hein and 30k again on their bear cases that have been discussed going back to tarrif crash through the Iran dump.

I've sayed long futures since buying the tariff crash.

---

I'd love to see this too but it feels like HA may have taken a step back from the thread unfortunately. He seems to be just dropping in to give his sell moves on trades he previously posted about (all of which I have thankfully profited on by the way). I just ordered a book he previously recommended so I can start to understand some of the technical analysis stuff he excels at on my own.

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Can you remind me which book?

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"Trading in the zone". He also recommended "The socioeconomic Theory of Finance" but I haven't ordered that one yet. These are more focused on mental mindset than purely technical analysis I think but I'm starting with these.

5Amp said:

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Prymy

thank me later

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Who doesn't love a cryptic, after-hours post on the Texags stock markets thread?

You could probably have Claude scrape all of HAs post and have it recreate the system and alert you. No joke.

Ya it works but I'm uncomfortable essentially ripping off his process like this without his permission, so I won't post anything. But ya Claude is incredible. AI top isn't in.

This thread definitely misses HA Prog etc. Hope all is well with you guys, sincerely.

I'm not a big poster but over the years I tend to just focus on this thread and yalls generosity and insight is extremely appreciated. Hope you come back to the clubhouse soon.

Mr.Milkshake said:

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Not a ton to discuss when market is ripping ATHs except to watch stonk go up.

But, would like to hear from Hein and 30k again on their bear cases that have been discussed going back to tarrif crash through the Iran dump.

I've sayed long futures since buying the tariff crash.

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I'm just over tipping my cap to YOU. You were right for a long time and deserve a ton of credit.

I went extremely risk off late last year, a move that paid off in spades initially. I've been doing almost nothing but very short-term options plays on indexes, sectors, and a couple individual names. I was up over 40% for the year the first week of April after selling some SPY calls that caught the meat of the initial explosion upward. Since then, I've had a small string of misses and given some back. One attempting puts on USO that expired a couple weeks too early. Full loss. Currently, I'm deeply red on some XLK puts. It had a great setup to reverse and I front ran it. Got absolutely nuked. Technically I still have two weeks, and parabolas tend to reverse hard. So not all hope is lost. But it's going to take a miracle. I reloaded my T leaps a couple weeks ago. Still feel good and have more than enough time. But they are drawn down 50%. Sold some longer term holds. As of right now, I'm probably buying SOUN October $9 calls Monday. If it dips to $7-$8 range, I'll add to them. Target is high $13's on the low end and $17 on the high end. Pretty convicted on that one, but it's scary considering the market is due a correction.

As far as this insane market action. Other than the calls in early April, I completely missed it. I never thought, given the structure off the 2022 lows, that this would end in a 2000-like parabola led by semi stocks going to the literal moon. XSD is up 82.63% in 35 days. You can't find this kind of move in semi ETF's unless you go back to when they were extremely cheap and originally breaking out. Even in those days, there were even slight pullbacks. This run has been legendary and insane. One for the ages. And the crazy thing is, there wasn't even a setup hinting this was possible unless you acted exactly on April 7th and then held past April 13th where it looked like it might stall out. Given the sideways regime we just exited from in these names, and the fact that NVDA still hasn't really participated, to say this was a hard move to catch is an understatement. The people who did either held and never sold or bought the breakout with conviction and held on for dear life. Even those that did, how many haven't sold anything yet? Balls of steel if not.

This market was originally fueled by a massive squeeze as it reversed a downward ending diagonal that bottomed flat in late March. From there, you had the scripted CTA buying that pushed it up further. I doubted it would. It did. I was wrong. it's been a lockout rally, having not provided even the slimmest manageable pullbacks for those who missed out are aching to get in. People like me did not expect a new high. The early year pullback was frankly small given the run last year. And now it's so heated that it's straight up scary to buy. Everyone knows its going to end at some point.

But here's the thing. This is being fed by a gamma feedback loop. MM's have to buy shares to offset the call volume they are selling to the market. And while it's getting extreme, you have to understand that it can continue longer. Even when it's over, likely sometime in May, the pullback that ensues isn't likely to be the massive one everyone expects. That's because retail has been locked out and they are going to buy the next pullback in force. They will then become exit liquidity (most likely) for a big move down later this year.

In my opinion, we are in November/December 1999. And if you go back and study that time period, the top and drop that followed in March 2000 didn't happen all at once. It wasn't until 2001 that the market broke the support of the pullback that coincides with the one we are expecting soon.. that last pullback before the top. And September 2001, which was a long way down, is essentially the same as us bottoming in late 2027 where April 2025 started. Now, fractals can be similar and play out far differently. The point is, once this market finally does top, if it does top, nobody will know it was a top until a long way down the road after many dip buying opportunities failed to provide the follow-through that we are used to. This market is convinced dips are to be bought. There WILL come a point that they get wrecked on that thinking. I just am no longer willing to prognosticate when that will be. It's done me no good trying to call the top. Elliott Wave used properly simply tells you when the conditions are ripe for a top. But it will not predict the timing or extensions higher. The conditions are absolutely ripe.. on multiple degrees going back a hundred years. But that doesn't mean anything. A long-term core that you trade around is still the best strategy, as long as you know where support is that signals its all over. Once that level breaks, that's when you move to cash.

But I'm mostly out of the stock picking game, so I don't have much of a long-term core. We're so far extended in this current era, that I simply can't make sense of most stock charts. We're at a point I've seen multiple times.. the last one 2021. Where nothing made sense to my eyes. It turned out, it didn't make sense because everything was just extending constantly until it stopped.

If I had to pick a couple names I like..

IONQ

This is very similar to the setup I spotted in WTTR. But it's a (5)th wave within a diagonal. Diagonals are prone to failure. So you have to mind your supports if playing. Below $35 and it won't be worth it to me.



XLE

I think energy stocks can continue to run. But the big easy move is over. It's likely going to take some conviction during upward whipsaw if buying here. I wouldn't want below $51.



ANGX

Have yall seen The Chosen? As a Christian, it's one of my favorite shows. David is good too. I think this one "has potential" to be in the early stages of it's move off the low. If it reach mid $3's and then hold a corrective retrace to a higher low, it could be one you add to your portfolio for a multi-year move.



TSLA

I don't think this will be an easy one to play, as it's trying to fill in the later stages of a very long-term diagonal. Lot's of a-b-c type moves with the best impulses as the c-waves. That's why I just wait for a completed a-b and then a clear 5 waves up to start a c-wave and then buy TSLL.

One more thing that must be mentioned. The top 10 companies represent 40% of the SPX. This exceeds 1999. What this means is that you can get a major market drop that brings SPX way down, while really only crushing one sector. There are many sectors that I believe point higher in the coming year. But I do think Tech will lead the indexes off their high, whenever it happens. I would be very careful moving forward with my allocations to mega tech stocks. Just go look at what the 200SMA is on XSD, XLK, and SOXX. Look at where the weekly Keltner bands are. If you don't see the risk, then you are likely to get crushed when it happens.

The revenue growth and growth trajectory model providers are on is unprecedented.

Has all the AI spend translated to broader market rev growth? No. But (a) once you start using a keyboard, you can't and won't go back to using a chisel, and (b) it's def going to lead to more business competition as all are unblocked by technical limitations.

And, it's not just about productivity. It's fun. I'd bet LLM usage has higher d30 retention and arpu, and lower churn than just about any product ever.

Great to hear from you HA. Your thoughts and opinions are greatly appreciated!

Howdy!

Great to see y'all are still a bunch of trading degenerates.

Miss y'all. Busy time for FJ and for those of you that know me understand why. World events and chaos keep me cranking.

There will come a day when calmness drags me back to trading and Friday lottos.

Until then…. Trade Wisely!