quote:Lol, I think it's robbery. We got Chazened.quote:
Somebody do an analysis on CRC.
Oxy brilliantly laid off a ton of debt on to CRC. Analysis done.
Just kidding. Barely.
Stock Markets
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Last: 18 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
quote:
Charterholder here. Equity research, distressed credits and I-banking background. And I find 98% of the conversation on here to be quite amusing...
Thanks for the input.
I don't think the CFA designation is the ultimate judge of a person's opinion. Obviously we have some charterholders in here that disagree on some things.
quote:
Charterholder here. Equity research, distressed credits and I-banking background. And I find 98% of the conversation on here to be quite amusing...
That's pretty effing sweet bro.
quote:Ultimate judge of someone's opinion? I'm not sure what that even means. The CFA designation is the gold standard in the investment world, and to have it indicates that one has undergone an extremely rigorous curriculum and testing program. It does not guarantee that person will ultimately give better advice or make better investment decisions than someone without the charter, but it most certainly leads credence to that person's opinion.
I don't think the CFA designation is the ultimate judge of a person's opinion. Obviously we have some charterholders in here that disagree on some things.
My respect for Jake's opinion immediately increased when he said he was a charterholder... not because I necessarily agree with his opinions or advice, but because I know what a rigorous program he has completed. In order to do so, he must be both intelligent and a diligent worker.
Simply because charterholders disagree with each other speaks nothing to the merit of their accomplishment.
Old Buffalo was speaking towards the condescension of ****heads post.
quote:Welcome. First question I have for you is what % allocation do you currently have in stocks? Thanks!
Charterholder here. Equity research, distressed credits and I-banking background. And I find 98% of the conversation on here to be quite amusing...
I hold the CPA and am awaiting work experience for the CFA.
I know a charterholder who is only invested in bitcoin.
It's all relative. I just don't want it to be a **** swinging contest at the end of the day.
I know a charterholder who is only invested in bitcoin.
It's all relative. I just don't want it to be a **** swinging contest at the end of the day.
Some people care way too much about how others wish to risk their money.
quote:
Some people care way too much about how others wish to risk their money.
This x 1000. Really wish some of the folks on here who aren't interested in the discussion would mind their own business
OK, it appears the consensus here is that I was condescending and that was not my intent, so I apologize if that was the takeaway. I was using the term "amusing" as a synonym for entertaining and interesting, not condescendingly. I even asked an English major in our office if the post was condescending and her interpretation was "entertaining" but I concede it is a word that could go either way. For the record I also find Randolph Duke posts entertaining so maybe I should pay greater attention to every word I type like a lawyer would.
Therefore, I will go back and edit my post.
I agree with Old Buffalo as the CFA definitely does NOT make a person automatically a better investor. I've known CFAs that don't understand a simple concept like Enterprise Value... But I also agree with Woody2006 that it does lend some credence to an opinion given it's probably the most prestigious credential in finance. Nevertheless, a person's actual experience should and does trump anything they learned in a book. That's why I also mentioned my more-than-a-decade in corporate finance.
Again, apologies if it came across as condescending.
To oldarmy1: I don't know what my exact stock allocation is currently as I'm in a dispute with my broker/FA about a recent portfolio allocation I never authorized. However, it's approximately 50% cash, 25% stocks, 25% IG munis. The large allocation to cash is due to 3 reasons: 1) I'm a huge pessimist on stocks due to ZIRP/NIRP policies by central banks, 2) as an equity research analyst I've seen how the sausage is made and want to be a metaphorical Vegan, and 3) I'm a conservative German.
I'm not currently registered to give investment advice, and I certainly wouldn't do it for free on a message board. I absolutely do not believe in technicians/charting (maybe I was subconsciously condescending to people that believe in that, but if enough people believe it becomes somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy). I also don't believe in options trading but that's just due to my experience of seeing young undergrads get a job in equity research and try to open up options accounts. Usually they are told they don't have the funds or net worth to open one but I see it as a young kid soon to be parted with his money.
Oldarmy1 and any other options traders: I hope you make money doing that but it's definitely not for me. One thing I would point out is that making money is one thing but was curious if you compare your net returns to some appropriate benchmark (not the S&P500).
Finally, at the risk of making another controversial statement and getting flamed, I've seen Sloan Kettering make many condescending remarks on other posts to level-headed knowledgeable posters. I'm sure he's smart and probably a nice guy in person but his internet alter-ego definitely isn't at times. If anyone is a "bro," it's definitely that guy. Assuming he's a finance professional, I'm fascinated how he's posted ~31,000 times over 10 years. I have nearly the time nor the inclination to accomplish that but it's very impressive so kudos to you Sloan.
TL; DNR: Sorry if I was condescending... not my purpose and my portfolio is weighted to cash and bonds. And I agree having a charter doesn't make a holder the end all be all of investments/finance.
[minor edit for grammar]
Therefore, I will go back and edit my post.
I agree with Old Buffalo as the CFA definitely does NOT make a person automatically a better investor. I've known CFAs that don't understand a simple concept like Enterprise Value... But I also agree with Woody2006 that it does lend some credence to an opinion given it's probably the most prestigious credential in finance. Nevertheless, a person's actual experience should and does trump anything they learned in a book. That's why I also mentioned my more-than-a-decade in corporate finance.
Again, apologies if it came across as condescending.
To oldarmy1: I don't know what my exact stock allocation is currently as I'm in a dispute with my broker/FA about a recent portfolio allocation I never authorized. However, it's approximately 50% cash, 25% stocks, 25% IG munis. The large allocation to cash is due to 3 reasons: 1) I'm a huge pessimist on stocks due to ZIRP/NIRP policies by central banks, 2) as an equity research analyst I've seen how the sausage is made and want to be a metaphorical Vegan, and 3) I'm a conservative German.
I'm not currently registered to give investment advice, and I certainly wouldn't do it for free on a message board. I absolutely do not believe in technicians/charting (maybe I was subconsciously condescending to people that believe in that, but if enough people believe it becomes somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy). I also don't believe in options trading but that's just due to my experience of seeing young undergrads get a job in equity research and try to open up options accounts. Usually they are told they don't have the funds or net worth to open one but I see it as a young kid soon to be parted with his money.
Oldarmy1 and any other options traders: I hope you make money doing that but it's definitely not for me. One thing I would point out is that making money is one thing but was curious if you compare your net returns to some appropriate benchmark (not the S&P500).
Finally, at the risk of making another controversial statement and getting flamed, I've seen Sloan Kettering make many condescending remarks on other posts to level-headed knowledgeable posters. I'm sure he's smart and probably a nice guy in person but his internet alter-ego definitely isn't at times. If anyone is a "bro," it's definitely that guy. Assuming he's a finance professional, I'm fascinated how he's posted ~31,000 times over 10 years. I have nearly the time nor the inclination to accomplish that but it's very impressive so kudos to you Sloan.
TL; DNR: Sorry if I was condescending... not my purpose and my portfolio is weighted to cash and bonds. And I agree having a charter doesn't make a holder the end all be all of investments/finance.
[minor edit for grammar]
quote:
OK, it appears the consensus here is that I was condescending and that was not my intent, so I apologize if that was the takeaway. I was using the term "amusing" as a synonym for entertaining and interesting, not condescendingly. I even asked an English major in our office if the post was condescending and her interpretation was "entertaining" but I concede it is a word that could go either way. For the record I also find Randolph Duke posts entertaining so maybe I should pay greater attention to every word I type like a lawyer would.
Therefore, I will go back and edit my post.
I agree with Old Buffalo as the CFA definitely does NOT make a person automatically a better investor. I've known CFAs that don't understand a simple concept like Enterprise Value... But I also agree with Woody2006 that it does lend some credence to an opinion given it's probably the most prestigious credential in finance. Nevertheless, a person's actual experience should and does trump anything they learned in a book. That's why I also mentioned my more-than-a-decade in corporate finance.
Again, apologies if it came across as condescending.
To oldarmy1: I don't know what my exact stock allocation is currently as I'm in a dispute with my broker/FA about a recent portfolio allocation I never authorized. However, it's approximately 50% cash, 25% stocks, 25% IG munis. The large allocation to cash is due to 3 reasons: 1) I'm a huge pessimist on stocks due to ZIRP/NIRP policies by central banks, 2) as an equity research analyst I've seen how the sausage is made and want to be a metaphorical Vegan, and 3) I'm a conservative German.
I'm not currently registered to give investment advice, and I certainly wouldn't do it for free on a message board. I absolutely do not believe in technicians/charting (maybe I was subconsciously condescending to people that believe in that, but if enough people believe it becomes somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy). I also don't believe in options trading but that's just due to my experience of seeing young undergrads get a job in equity research and try to open up options accounts. Usually they are told they don't have the funds or net worth to open one but I see it as a young kid soon to be parted with his money.
Oldarmy1 and any other options traders: I hope you make money doing that but it's definitely not for me. One thing I would point out is that making money is one thing but was curious if you compare your net returns to some appropriate benchmark (not the S&P500).
Finally, at the risk of making another controversial statement and getting flamed, I've seen Sloan Kettering make many condescending remarks on other posts to level-headed knowledgeable posters. I'm sure he's smart and probably a nice guy in person but his internet alter-ego definitely isn't at times. If anyone is a "bro," it's definitely that guy. Assuming he's a finance professional, I'm fascinated how he's posted ~31,000 times over 10 years. I have nearly the time nor the inclination to accomplish that but it's very impressive so kudos to you Sloan.
TL; DNR: Sorry if I was condescending... not my purpose and my portfolio is weighted to cash and bonds. And I agree having a charter doesn't make a holder the end all be all of investments/finance.
[minor edit for grammar]
oldarmy1
Joined:
Nov 13, 2006
Posts:
39,076
How long do you want to ignore this user?
What bench mark would you use for options traders?
quote:
I absolutely do not believe in technicians/charting (maybe I was subconsciously condescending to people that believe in that, but if enough people believe it becomes somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy). I also don't believe in options trading but that's just due to my experience of seeing young undergrads get a job in equity research and try to open up options accounts. Usually they are told they don't have the funds or net worth to open one but I see it as a young kid soon to be parted with his money.
Couple of thoughts here. While technicals aren't the only analysis professional traders utilize your nomenclature of technicals "becoming" a self-fulfilling prophecy ignores that massive institutional volume is what forms the technical boundaries/channels.
There is a common fallacy in a often used expression, "don't fight the tape". Reality is don't fight the institutions or power brokers. Professional traders have the tools and experience to identify these activities and capitalize.
Secondly, I find it interesting that you wave off Options trading due to some past observation of youthful rainbow seekers. If these occurrences form your basis for applying your CFA achievement to investing/trading practices then your fights with your broker might not be the ultimate challenge to overcome.
Best wishes for your success.
You've only posted on TA 57 times. Yet you used one of those posts to drop your credentials and tell everyone how you are amused by 98% of the posts here.
Give me a break with that troll job.
Give me a break with that troll job.
quote:It constantly amazes me how post numbers are used as some kind of benchmark for anything other than being an internet blowhard.
You've only posted on TA 57 times. Yet you used one of those posts to drop your credentials and tell everyone how you are amused by 98% of the posts here.
Give me a break with that troll job.
Carry on....
quote:
We are headed first to the top of the channel. Currently that comes in around 17k DOW, give or take 100.
Here we are a week later and although volatility persists we continue to end up higher on the short term trend. At some juncture expect a larger upside move intra day. I'm seeing some signs that could create a "momentum" market short term. What that would mean is a push even higher than the already projected 17k+ area. Even as high as a retest of the trend previous top, 17600 area.
Okay it's primary day. Last primary stocks were down the following day. Does anyone expect this to happen again? I'm thinking of buying a put option before the close in anticipation of an overnight gap down due to the primary and Trump's name.
So, you closed out positions and went mostly to cash last summer. Have you been short, what have you been doing for the past half year? I'm not sure I've seen any of your trades posted other than AAPL. Now, you've been holding firm that we are now in a bear market, but your last post youre indicating a potential re-test of highs. So are you buying now? Will you short at 17k or 17.6k? It would be far more interesting if you relayed your strategy rather than just posting the obvious (market is up today, market is down today, market looks like it will push upper trend line, etc)
quote:Finally someone said what I have been thinking all along... Bravo Clay!
So, you closed out positions and went mostly to cash last summer. Have you been short, what have you been doing for the past half year? I'm not sure I've seen any of your trades posted other than AAPL. Now, you've been holding firm that we are now in a bear market, but your last post youre indicating a potential re-test of highs. So are you buying now? Will you short at 17k or 17.6k? It would be far more interesting if you relayed your strategy rather than just posting the obvious (market is up today, market is down today, market looks like it will push upper trend line, etc)
Real time sale update on AAPL calls 100 strike price bought avg 17 cents or $17each. Sold at 1.08 or $108 each.
As for the post above mine. When I have a moment I'll give you a reply.
As for the post above mine. When I have a moment I'll give you a reply.
Oldarmy, I really appreciate your posts! Thanks for taking the time to post while asking for nothing in return.
quote:Ok. So in thinking about how to respond to you and Daniel (BTW Daniel - it's a message board - think in text
So, you closed out positions and went mostly to cash last summer. Have you been short, what have you been doing for the past half year? I'm not sure I've seen any of your trades posted other than AAPL. Now, you've been holding firm that we are now in a bear market, but your last post youre indicating a potential re-test of highs. So are you buying now? Will you short at 17k or 17.6k? It would be far more interesting if you relayed your strategy rather than just posting the obvious (market is up today, market is down today, market looks like it will push upper trend line, etc)
we're all friends here) I'll say that you might have missed those previous posts on going cash on all shares and shorting the market. I posted spotting the reversal low day which including buying shares across a number of stocks. I didn't post specific stocks and entries but didn't know this was a challenge so I will be happy to do so going forward, if I am able in real-time. I posted that I had sold half the shares on the 600 point bounce that followed and also sold covered calls deep in the money because "the markets will be very volatile allowing me to buy those back cheaper". That happened. Again, I will post specific entry and exit trades in real-time if I can. Otherwise it would be that day. I do have businesses to run. Currently I remain with those remaining 50% buys and added a AAPL options call. I only posted that in real time because of a PM asking to post my next trade.Remember that I am a macro trader so the next "challenge" (major trades) you see from me will be spotting the reversal high on the end of the current movement. I have remained consistent since hitting the reversal lows that the markets WILL challenge 17k. Bottom line - all you are saying is post actual trades because you certainly can't question the accuracy of the macro information. Am I correct in that? Restated, you are interested in seeing my movements in the market. Most larger traders would not share down to that specific. But I will do so for your interest.
One final word on the characterization of daily action that you call "obvious". I find that interesting when the day I post to expect a big intraday move soon that it happens on that very day. Even though I am not a day trader and did not know exactly which day it would occur what information did you have? A) That the markets were headed to 17k+ and B) Analysis was telling me a large intraday move was going to happen. Knowing this would you short shares? Ummm, I think not. In fact, I told a good trader on another thread that he would be wise to cover his short with the stock being flat premarket. I'm sure if the stock and markets had tanked then people would have said I screwed the pooch on that one. But I stood by my macro analysis that shorting shares was against the grain, based on my steady and continued outlook.
As for the 50% shares I continue to hold? GS, SPY, FB, QQQ, NFLX and STMP. I sold a $125 March 11 covered call on STMP an hour ago as the shares broke $120. Also, people might recall I had bought an initial position in TWTR around $15. I sold it at $18 and (here is the newest trade) just used 10% of those profits to purchase 100 March 18th $20 calls at $0.23 cents.
I won't bother telling you how many shares of each stock I hold. You wouldn't believe it anyways.
Happy trading!
p.s. adding on direct correction to your comment "but your last post youre indicating a potential re-test of highs." No, I said I wouldn't be surprised to see a momentum move that reached as high as the previous TREND top. I'll stand by the bear market macro call which means we will not reach new market highs above the 18300 market high. But it is not uncommon in the least to reach the secondary trend highs, to suck in the market, before unleashing the bears for good. It would take a lot of momentum to get there but I will post when we have topped again for all to see. In the meantime as we approach 17k I'll be dumping these 50% remaining buys and then shifting to that next macro move. My style of trading is weeks, sometimes months, of boredom followed by frenzied moments of positioning activity.
I'm buying physical gold and silver when Dow hits 17,000.
I dumped most of my 401k today, at whatever the close happens to end up at. Now 80% cash, bonds, or positions covered with ITM calls.
Sorry, came across as more antagonistic than intended. Yes, would sincerely appreciate some named positions, and certainly appreciate the additional color in your last post. Definitely understand it came be time consuming (and unrewarding), but details and positions make it easier for those of us learning to follow and track.
Generally, I am a value investor, but certainly not buy&hold forever. Get in where I see value with a targeted exit. I am also not adverse to risk or dipping into trades, and am following this for that purpose. Over the past few years I have done well long SAN, BSBR, EBIX, QCOR, GM, VALE, AAPL, RIG, ESV, VR, and riskier in HK, and short P. I am also watching this with my current portfolio, and retirement funds in mind.
If you have time, what top 2-3 indicators did you spot making you believe an large intraday move was imminent?
Generally, I am a value investor, but certainly not buy&hold forever. Get in where I see value with a targeted exit. I am also not adverse to risk or dipping into trades, and am following this for that purpose. Over the past few years I have done well long SAN, BSBR, EBIX, QCOR, GM, VALE, AAPL, RIG, ESV, VR, and riskier in HK, and short P. I am also watching this with my current portfolio, and retirement funds in mind.
If you have time, what top 2-3 indicators did you spot making you believe an large intraday move was imminent?
The larger move was based on a tracking of accumulation/distribution, call/put variance, Institutional volume (I use 20k+ share lot buy side) , technical trend analysis and shares short.
Do you have a general bottom target in mind based on charts?
After the 09-15 wedge reversal, and what could be considered a recent H&S or inverse cup, plus support from tops in 08 and 13, looks like 14,000 could be a good general target. That would be a 22% downturn or so. Chart says that would occur closer to the end of 2018 though.
After the 09-15 wedge reversal, and what could be considered a recent H&S or inverse cup, plus support from tops in 08 and 13, looks like 14,000 could be a good general target. That would be a 22% downturn or so. Chart says that would occur closer to the end of 2018 though.
Agree with your technicals. They go into the formula for paying closer attention to all the other data since they become "natural" potential reversal points. No way to actually know/predict when we've found our lows until it is occurring. Once all of the variables are aligned showing a potential bottom the final metric to plug in is institutional volume. It is the purest final signal because they can't hide their volume.
If someone had never learned a single thing about the markets and someone handed them $1M and said "trade it" they could beat most experienced traders simply by only trading on volume indicators.
If someone had never learned a single thing about the markets and someone handed them $1M and said "trade it" they could beat most experienced traders simply by only trading on volume indicators.
quote:Thank you for the advice oldarmy1. I totally agree volume is one of the most important indicator. And i have no idea how to use them. Can you share how you set up your volume indicator? How do you spot institutional volume? Do you compare to average volume? What is the percentage over the average volume (for example 20 day volume average) to consider such a move?
Agree with your technicals. They go into the formula for paying closer attention to all the other data since they become "natural" potential reversal points. No way to actually know/predict when we've found our lows until it is occurring. Once all of the variables are aligned showing a potential bottom the final metric to plug in is institutional volume. It is the purest final signal because they can't hide their volume.
If someone had never learned a single thing about the markets and someone handed them $1M and said "trade it" they could beat most experienced traders simply by only trading on volume indicators.
I hate range days... for the day traders in the group... any advice on how to trade them?
so a day like today where everything moves sideways, does it mean anything? pull back to the mean looming?
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