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Chef Elko
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5:19p, 2/21/25
AG
Anybody know anything about Natural Resource $NRP? I notice they have a bunch of mineral rights for what looks like coal, soda ash and other minerals. They've had a massive run looking at the last 5 years, great dividend and low P/E. A Houston company so someone here may be familiar.

I was looking into coal stocks some as I believe gas to coal switching has been occurring as of late with the two recent cold fronts
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EnronAg
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In reply to RenoAg • 5:19p, 2/21/25
AG
RenoAg said:
I apologize for the semi political talk on this trading thread. No more of that from me.
I could be wrong, but I think that type of discussion is fine largely if it has an impact to the market...and outside of trading hours, what else is there to do
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Heineken-Ashi
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5:30p, 2/21/25
I exited the CLSk puts today for a tiny profit. Could come lower, but it was an earnings play that turned south and then rallied. Love getting to count blessings on failed setups.

Also sold half of some MARA puts at 2x. Didn't advise these. Pulled the trigger on them around a month ago.

ACHR puts expired worthless. Looks like the reversal is happening, but it didn't happen within the expected timeframe, which is rare. Buyers have been strong on that one. Usually when that happens, it will never get as low as expected target and could even get new highs.

SNCY $17.50 April puts are up 50% and minimum target $15 is still below. These should pay over 2x if it can get there by March expiration.

Bought TNA in a sizeable amount today. It didn't hold support and I lose $1.5k. That was the risk. The reward was $9-$10k. It was worth the chance to me. Now, I need to see IWM form a solid uptrend to give that one another try. Got too deep for comfort.

Out of SPXL until support can confirm.

Did buy the SPX 6075/6080 call spread for $1.10 each for Tuesday. Looking for 2-4x. All at risk.

Grabbed some March COPX calls today. Will post that chart this weekend. It's sexy.

Have puts in the money on about 5 other names. But most still have work to do. Next week will be key.
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El_duderino
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In reply to Chef Elko • 5:43p, 2/21/25
I can look into it this weekend. You looking at that specific stock only or also looking at other coal plays? I believe we're in a longer term uptrend of gas and think coal could be a good trade
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Chef Elko
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In reply to El_duderino • 6:15p, 2/21/25
AG
I found a coal etf and looking at the top holdings this company was one of them. I plan to look at some more but this one caught my eye. Very interested based on a quick glance of a few metrics so it may be worth looking into if you're interested in coal as well.

I follow gas storage, macro etc. fairly closely and gas to coal switching has been a real thing as of late. LNG will continue to pull more gas, increase prices and dig into the storage figures. A lot of that surplus has been wiped out this winter, hard to believe when we've been so oversupplied. It wouldnt hurt to follow some coal names if gas prices continue to climb
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El Chupacabra
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6:18p, 2/21/25
I go skiing one day and come home to see I won't be retiring early. Thanks for nothing.
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flashplayer
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6:22p, 2/21/25
AG
Anyone taking a look at AMSC American Superconductor Corporation?

It had been on a tear the past year and took a 33% haircut since November. Looks to be at a point where it might be ready to bounce again if it stays on its trend from the last 6 months

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El_duderino
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In reply to Chef Elko • 6:23p, 2/21/25
AMR is another to look at. Very solid balance sheet and good fcf. Likely a long term hold and not a few months swing trade
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spud1910
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In reply to El Chupacabra • 6:34p, 2/21/25
AG
I worked today and came home to see the same thing.
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DC901
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6:51p, 2/21/25
https://mol.im/a/14422301
This will make this more interesting come Monday. Ukraine is signing the U.S. minerals deal asap.
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ProgN
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8:46p, 2/21/25
It's Friday night, so if anyone feels like doing some research over the weekend and get back to the clubhouse with your take, then look at $CMPO (CompoSecure, Inc).

I'm too busy with some personal issues so I don't have the time, but would be interested in your opinions.

I received 3 alerts of insiders buying in on the open market tonight, but I don't know anything about them. Insiders sell for a multitude of reasons, but they only buy in for one, especially in size.

Let us know what you find out please.
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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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9:34p, 2/21/25
Sponsor
AG
Did yall see where Jamie Dimon has sold $230M worth of stock today at the close?
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EliteZags
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In reply to Red Pear Luke (BCS) • 10:05p, 2/21/25
AG
actually 33% of his JPM which seems pretty high given the value..
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to ProgN • 10:08p, 2/21/25
ProgN said:
It's Friday night, so if anyone feels like doing some research over the weekend and get back to the clubhouse with your take, then look at $CMPO (CompoSecure, Inc).

I'm too busy with some personal issues so I don't have the time, but would be interested in your opinions.

I received 3 alerts of insiders buying in on the open market tonight, but I don't know anything about them. Insiders sell for a multitude of reasons, but they only buy in for one, especially in size.

Let us know what you find out please.
I'm in with stop at $15. Target range $23-$28. Plan would be to sell 2/3 of the shares at target to get net free. Stash the rest away. Some big names involved with the company. But a huge red flag - huge debt amount.



Wave 3 ended with an ending diagonal - overlapping 5 waves that gave a beautiful reversal back into the region it came from. Did NOT get a standard depth I would expect from a 4th wave, but the LEADING diagonal back up is bullish and often leads to explosion upward after a retracement. Hold $15-$16 range and March earnings could be big. Should $15 break, $12 is my ultimate support.



Thanks for the heads up Progn
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EnronAg
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In reply to EliteZags • 10:15p, 2/21/25
AG
Forced liquidation as he's gonna be the next Fed chair
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Buck Compton
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In reply to Red Pear Luke (BCS) • 11:05p, 2/21/25
AG
Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:
Did yall see where Jamie Dimon has sold $230M worth of stock today at the close?
Transactions started on 2/20 actually.

And whoever said 33%, that's fake news. Read the Form 4. He (via related entities and trusts) sold 866,361 shares at $269.8373, for a total sale of $233.7M, roughly 12% of his direct + indirect ownership.



https://www.sec.gov/files/form4data.pdf
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trip98
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In reply to TTUArmy • 7:23a
AG
TTUArmy said:
harge57 said:
infinity ag said:
It's been a month of Trump and market is up only 0.5%.

Trump was supposed to be "good for business".
He may be good for business, but he is not good for inflation which is where ~50% of equity gains have come from the last few years.

It will be interesting if the reduction in regulations can spur enough growth to offset the reduction in government spending and jobs in the economy.
I think it'll be painful for little awhile. Pretty sad fact that the crazy government spending has made up the lion's share of GDP over the last 4 years. Otherwise, GDP probably would have been negative.


It ain't gonna be just a little while. My definition of little while in this situation would be 3 years

This is a big ship that needs correcting. Drop that govt spending is going to ripple for several years. Then gotta get people comfortable and stable spending. But considering most Americans are in debt like the government that's going to take years by itself.
Hopefully savings they get balances budget, maybe pay down some debt and then reinvest some in projects to help the country....power grid, bridges, air traffic system, education system....


It's a pain process we need for our children's future..... Heck even if I want some of my ss money in 15 years!
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Woods Ag
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In reply to trip98 • 7:43a
AG
I thought so too, but Javier Milei did it in less than a year.

I think that if done correctly, and not just abrupt bandaid ripping, it may be tough early and then as everyone sees that America is now a good place to invest the whole worlds money will pour in here.

Restated: If America can show that they are paying down debts and the cascade is over and we are going to start trending in a safe direction I truly believe we are going to sky rocket.
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FishrCoAg
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In reply to Woods Ag • 8:26a
AG
Woods Ag said:
I thought so too, but Javier Milei did it in less than a year.

I think that if done correctly, and not just abrupt bandaid ripping, it may be tough early and then as everyone sees that America is now a good place to invest the whole worlds money will pour in here.

Restated: If America can show that they are paying down debts and the cascade is over and we are going to start trending in a safe direction I truly believe we are going to sky rocket.


Nobody's seriously talking about paying down debt. They can't even get close to a balanced budget.
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El_duderino
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8:36a
Keep an eye on $X. Massive $41/43 spread for 3/28 expiry.
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EnronAg
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8:39a
AG
Is something supposed to happen with SMCI this week? filing related, I assume...wow, the weekly option premiums are JUICED!!!
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gougler08
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In reply to EnronAg • 8:43a
AG
Tuesday is the filing deadline I believe
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EnronAg
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8:51a
AG
options seem to be pricing a near 25% move...and are people really thinking this thing moon shots to $85+ looking at those premiums...my goodness, am I wrong or is the market really thinking the filing moves the stock THAT MUCH?!?!

edit - what is a responsible way to sell volatility on this?? (if that is even a thing)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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8:59a
AG
Berkshire's earnings up 71% in fourth quarter.
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El_duderino
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In reply to EnronAg • 9:01a
I'd normally sell a csp to collect premium as I'd lean bullish, but this is a unique situation and I personally am watching from the sidelines.
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harge57
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In reply to EnronAg • 9:12a
AG
EnronAg said:
options seem to be pricing a near 25% move...and are people really thinking this thing moon shots to $85+ looking at those premiums...my goodness, am I wrong or is the market really thinking the filing moves the stock THAT MUCH?!?!

edit - what is a responsible way to sell volatility on this?? (if that is even a thing)


Imo the volatility is all to the down side and it will be more than 25% if they miss the deadline. I think the run up the last two weeks has priced in the expected filing. It will get a bump up, but nowhere near what the drop will be if they miss it.

What would make me nervous is why are they even waiting until the deadline? If it was ready would they not have already released it?

Just my guess it's maybe a 10% bump if they meet the deadline and a 50% drop of they miss.

There is also a scenario where they file and it's materially different than the unaudited results.
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Mas89
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In reply to FishrCoAg • 9:13a
AG
FishrCoAg said:
Woods Ag said:
I thought so too, but Javier Milei did it in less than a year.

I think that if done correctly, and not just abrupt bandaid ripping, it may be tough early and then as everyone sees that America is now a good place to invest the whole worlds money will pour in here.

Restated: If America can show that they are paying down debts and the cascade is over and we are going to start trending in a safe direction I truly believe we are going to sky rocket.


Nobody's seriously talking about paying down debt. They can't even get close to a balanced budget.
Exactly. And taking out the government money carelessly spent in the past is still a big reduction in spending. The fraudulent spending, including the massive COVID spending, has propped up our economy for years.

Many companies have prospered and survived on government money.
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Woods Ag
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In reply to Mas89 • 11:22a
AG
Mas89 said:
FishrCoAg said:
Woods Ag said:
I thought so too, but Javier Milei did it in less than a year.

I think that if done correctly, and not just abrupt bandaid ripping, it may be tough early and then as everyone sees that America is now a good place to invest the whole worlds money will pour in here.

Restated: If America can show that they are paying down debts and the cascade is over and we are going to start trending in a safe direction I truly believe we are going to sky rocket.


Nobody's seriously talking about paying down debt. They can't even get close to a balanced budget.
Exactly. And taking out the government money carelessly spent in the past is still a big reduction in spending. The fraudulent spending, including the massive COVID spending, has propped up our economy for years.

Many companies have prospered and survived on government money.



I don't agree that we can't balance the budget but Let me change what I said. Balancing the budget doesn't have to be done immediately. We need to clean up our ****, and the balancing part can come as we recover and the investments pour in.
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EliteZags
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In reply to harge57 • 4:26p
AG
harge57 said:
EnronAg said:
options seem to be pricing a near 25% move...and are people really thinking this thing moon shots to $85+ looking at those premiums...my goodness, am I wrong or is the market really thinking the filing moves the stock THAT MUCH?!?!

edit - what is a responsible way to sell volatility on this?? (if that is even a thing)


Imo the volatility is all to the down side and it will be more than 25% if they miss the deadline. I think the run up the last two weeks has priced in the expected filing. It will get a bump up, but nowhere near what the drop will be if they miss it.

What would make me nervous is why are they even waiting until the deadline? If it was ready would they not have already released it?

Just my guess it's maybe a 10% bump if they meet the deadline and a 50% drop of they miss.

There is also a scenario where they file and it's materially different than the unaudited results.
so its like picking up a bag of powder off the floor of a bar and saying yolo
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