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Heineken-Ashi
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12:13p, 7/25/25
And for those that don't think a deep selloff that holds at or above the previous low before making a marginal higher high is possible, here's 2007, generally playing out around the same time of the year as now. Not predicting that, but we are in similar times.. interest rates elevated on inflation fears, housing starting to show cracks, pressure on the FED to drop rates, but generally everyone saying the economy is fine, etc.

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CivilEng08
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In reply to techno-ag • 12:20p, 7/25/25
techno-ag said:
Quacked said:
You're talking about a 37$ profit on an option and cashing out a cd to do so. You can just sell the option (preferably not expiration day) for profit. You don't have to excercise the option for a profit. Hell I've probably only excercised 5 out of 1000 options ever.

Or you can just buy options ETFs like ULTY and let those guys send you money they earn every week.

Man, ULTY is a dog. Seems like it's been ok for the last couple of months, but on a 52 week view, it's down by almost 50%. If you add your dividends back, you're netting 11% which is way underperforming the S&P. I'm not running a model with DRIP, but it's probably even worse because your dividend shares were also losing value at an obscene rate.
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infinity ag
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In reply to techno-ag • 12:44p, 7/25/25
techno-ag said:
Quacked said:
You're talking about a 37$ profit on an option and cashing out a cd to do so. You can just sell the option (preferably not expiration day) for profit. You don't have to excercise the option for a profit. Hell I've probably only excercised 5 out of 1000 options ever.

Or you can just buy options ETFs like ULTY and let those guys send you money they earn every week.


Thanks guys, but the goal wasn't to make money. $37 just buys me half our take out dinner for Fridays. The goal was to learn a very basic option and get a feel of how things worked.

I have my other ways of making money through ETFs and stocks and that is working well.

The $37 I am going to make today when it expires is from a $8500 cash secured put. But I can spare $25k which I have in a CD so I can expand a bit. It won't cause me any real problem even if I end up buying the stock as I can wait and sell it at a profit too.
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zgolfz85
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In reply to infinity ag • 12:52p, 7/25/25
AG
infinity ag said:
techno-ag said:
Quacked said:
You're talking about a 37$ profit on an option and cashing out a cd to do so. You can just sell the option (preferably not expiration day) for profit. You don't have to excercise the option for a profit. Hell I've probably only excercised 5 out of 1000 options ever.

Or you can just buy options ETFs like ULTY and let those guys send you money they earn every week.


Thanks guys, but the goal wasn't to make money. $37 just buys me half our take out dinner for Fridays. The goal was to learn a very basic option and get a feel of how things worked.

I have my other ways of making money through ETFs and stocks and that is working well.

The $37 I am going to make today when it expires is from a $8500 cash secured put. But I can spare $25k which I have in a CD so I can expand a bit. It won't cause me any real problem even if I end up buying the stock as I can wait and sell it at a profit too.


You allude to these ways of making money via stocks and ETFs, but it sounds like you're just pouring a **** ton of money into long term holds and letting the market's natural growth over time lead to your gains. Am I off base here, or are you applying some methodology?
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Heineken-Ashi
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1:11p, 7/25/25
I've mentioned before, though not in a while, that attempting a risk reversal (changing of direction in the market) shouldn't even be considered until VXX shows signs of life. If VXX doesn't bottom in the gray box or even slightly below it, then the bull can go much higher. If it does though, and it forms a 5-wave pattern to the upside, that's your first clue to trail up stops on longs and either buy protective puts or possible long dated out of the money puts / put spreads in preparation for something significant. This pattern completing in the box could lead to a higher high by the end of the year. Has to bottom first though.. and show signs of life off the bottom.

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techno-ag
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In reply to CivilEng08 • 1:14p, 7/25/25
AG
CivilEng08 said:
techno-ag said:
Quacked said:
You're talking about a 37$ profit on an option and cashing out a cd to do so. You can just sell the option (preferably not expiration day) for profit. You don't have to excercise the option for a profit. Hell I've probably only excercised 5 out of 1000 options ever.

Or you can just buy options ETFs like ULTY and let those guys send you money they earn every week.

Man, ULTY is a dog. Seems like it's been ok for the last couple of months, but on a 52 week view, it's down by almost 50%. If you add your dividends back, you're netting 11% which is way underperforming the S&P. I'm not running a model with DRIP, but it's probably even worse because your dividend shares were also losing value at an obscene rate.

Yeah I bought in after April and it's been golden.

Rule of thumb with a high yield ETF is you never buy when it's new, you wait until the price bottoms out and stabilizes like ULTY did a few months ago. Since it stabilized around $6 the money has been flowing in. It hit $1 billion in AUM a few months ago and is fixing to hit $2 billion.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
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techno-ag
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In reply to Chef Elko • 1:16p, 7/25/25
AG
Chef Elko said:
Dang, this ETF is wild! Do you re-invest dividends or just take the distribution?

Both.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
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EliteZags
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1:52p, 7/25/25
AG

up about a small single family home in this and earnings coming a week from Mon


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oldarmy1
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In reply to infinity ag • 1:55p, 7/25/25
AG
infinity ag said:
techno-ag said:
Quacked said:
You're talking about a 37$ profit on an option and cashing out a cd to do so. You can just sell the option (preferably not expiration day) for profit. You don't have to excercise the option for a profit. Hell I've probably only excercised 5 out of 1000 options ever.

Or you can just buy options ETFs like ULTY and let those guys send you money they earn every week.


Thanks guys, but the goal wasn't to make money. $37 just buys me half our take out dinner for Fridays. The goal was to learn a very basic option and get a feel of how things worked.

I have my other ways of making money through ETFs and stocks and that is working well.

The $37 I am going to make today when it expires is from a $8500 cash secured put. But I can spare $25k which I have in a CD so I can expand a bit. It won't cause me any real problem even if I end up buying the stock as I can wait and sell it at a profit too.

Buy 1 SPY $633 put for Monday at $0.37 right now
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to EliteZags • 1:58p, 7/25/25
EliteZags said:

up about a small single family home in this and earnings coming a week from Mon



Dear lord you should buy the one of the right with those winnings.
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Quacked
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 2:08p, 7/25/25
Thank you again for all the charting, warning, and lessons!
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Quacked
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 2:09p, 7/25/25
Seems risky investment. Only able to see 50% of revenue.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Quacked • 2:13p, 7/25/25
Quacked said:
Seems risky investment. Only able to see 50% of revenue.

That 50% is worth more than most companies 100%. Don't marry the stock. Just hold it tightly while it's fun to play with.
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EnronAg
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 2:27p, 7/25/25
AG
oldarmy1 said:
infinity ag said:
techno-ag said:
Quacked said:
You're talking about a 37$ profit on an option and cashing out a cd to do so. You can just sell the option (preferably not expiration day) for profit. You don't have to excercise the option for a profit. Hell I've probably only excercised 5 out of 1000 options ever.

Or you can just buy options ETFs like ULTY and let those guys send you money they earn every week.


Thanks guys, but the goal wasn't to make money. $37 just buys me half our take out dinner for Fridays. The goal was to learn a very basic option and get a feel of how things worked.

I have my other ways of making money through ETFs and stocks and that is working well.

The $37 I am going to make today when it expires is from a $8500 cash secured put. But I can spare $25k which I have in a CD so I can expand a bit. It won't cause me any real problem even if I end up buying the stock as I can wait and sell it at a profit too.

Buy 1 SPY $633 put for Monday at $0.37 right now

Monday puke?!?!
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Bocephus
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 2:28p, 7/25/25
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
EliteZags said:

up about a small single family home in this and earnings coming a week from Mon



Dear lord you should buy the one of the right with those winnings.


That's high quality marketing
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
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South Platte
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 2:31p, 7/25/25
Heineken-Ashi said:
Just hold it tightly while it's fun to play with.

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ProgN
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In reply to EliteZags • 2:33p, 7/25/25
EliteZags said:

up about a small single family home in this and earnings coming a week from Mon



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ProgN
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In reply to ReturnOfTheAg • 2:36p, 7/25/25
ReturnOfTheAg said:
Paging Prog - what's your plan on POWL?

$300+
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Chef Elko
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In reply to ProgN • 2:38p, 7/25/25
AG
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gggmann
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 2:39p, 7/25/25
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
EliteZags said:

up about a small single family home in this and earnings coming a week from Mon



Dear lord you should buy the one of the right with those winnings.


Renting would be a much better deal.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to gggmann • 2:47p, 7/25/25
gggmann said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
EliteZags said:

up about a small single family home in this and earnings coming a week from Mon



Dear lord you should buy the one of the right with those winnings.


Renting would be a much better deal.

As someone in commercial real estate, I disagree. I would buy with some capex for "value add" improvements, and then flip to the next guy for profit.
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FishrCoAg
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 2:51p, 7/25/25
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
gggmann said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
EliteZags said:

up about a small single family home in this and earnings coming a week from Mon



Dear lord you should buy the one of the right with those winnings.


Renting would be a much better deal.

As someone in commercial real estate, I disagree. I would buy with some capex for "value add" improvements, and then flip to the next guy for profit.


Everyone I've known that flipped one of those was not profitable
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HouAg12
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2:53p, 7/25/25
AG
Wow this market
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 2:53p, 7/25/25
AG
What are the property taxes on one of those
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South Platte
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In reply to gggmann • 2:57p, 7/25/25
gggmann said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
EliteZags said:

up about a small single family home in this and earnings coming a week from Mon



Dear lord you should buy the one of the right with those winnings.


Renting would be a much better deal.

Yep. At some point, everybody loses their fastball.
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agwrestler
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 3:01p, 7/25/25
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
EliteZags said:

up about a small single family home in this and earnings coming a week from Mon



Dear lord you should buy the one of the right with those winnings.


Adds new meaning to "Pump and Dump"!
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Number Monkey
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In reply to ProgN • 3:03p, 7/25/25
AG
ProgN said:
ReturnOfTheAg said:
Paging Prog - what's your plan on POWL?

$300+

I'm playing that $300 POWL 8/15 lotto you brought up yesterday. LET'S GO!!!!
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to Number Monkey • 3:05p, 7/25/25
Many moons ago I got some POWL 380 8/15 calls for .15.

Hoping for a miracle!
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ProgN
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In reply to Number Monkey • 3:06p, 7/25/25
Number Monkey said:
ProgN said:
ReturnOfTheAg said:
Paging Prog - what's your plan on POWL?

$300+

I'm playing that $300 POWL 8/15 lotto you brought up yesterday. LET'S GO!!!!

Something else I found very interesting with respect to POWL today too. Do you trade at schwab?
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Number Monkey
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In reply to ProgN • 3:07p, 7/25/25
AG
ProgN said:
Number Monkey said:
ProgN said:
ReturnOfTheAg said:
Paging Prog - what's your plan on POWL?

$300+

I'm playing that $300 POWL 8/15 lotto you brought up yesterday. LET'S GO!!!!

Something else I found very interesting with respect to POWL today too. Do you trade at schwab?

Yes.
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ProgN
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In reply to Number Monkey • 3:12p, 7/25/25
Number Monkey said:
ProgN said:
Number Monkey said:
ProgN said:
ReturnOfTheAg said:
Paging Prog - what's your plan on POWL?

$300+

I'm playing that $300 POWL 8/15 lotto you brought up yesterday. LET'S GO!!!!

Something else I found very interesting with respect to POWL today too. Do you trade at schwab?

Yes.



What stands out to you in this pic? Not saying it will happen, but what trade seems unusual and why? Remember, like it's underlying stock, POWL options volume is also anemic.
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Number Monkey
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In reply to ProgN • 3:16p, 7/25/25
AG
I'm thinking you mean the large volume at $340 vs all the lower levels?
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ProgN
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In reply to FishrCoAg • 3:16p, 7/25/25
FishrCoAg said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
gggmann said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
EliteZags said:

up about a small single family home in this and earnings coming a week from Mon



Dear lord you should buy the one of the right with those winnings.


Renting would be a much better deal.

As someone in commercial real estate, I disagree. I would buy with some capex for "value add" improvements, and then flip to the next guy for profit.


Everyone I've known that flipped one of those was not profitable


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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to ProgN • 3:21p, 7/25/25
ProgN said:
Number Monkey said:
ProgN said:
Number Monkey said:
ProgN said:
ReturnOfTheAg said:
Paging Prog - what's your plan on POWL?

$300+

I'm playing that $300 POWL 8/15 lotto you brought up yesterday. LET'S GO!!!!

Something else I found very interesting with respect to POWL today too. Do you trade at schwab?

Yes.



What stands out to you in this pic? Not saying it will happen, but what trade seems unusual and why? Remember, like it's underlying stock, POWL options volume is also anemic.

Three spreads today that were non-anemic for August. All three at the mid price so could have been buying or selling. Very likely small pea retail.


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ProgN
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In reply to Number Monkey • 3:22p, 7/25/25
Number Monkey said:
I'm thinking you mean the large volume at $340 vs all the lower levels?

Correct.

The increased volumes from $230-250 strikes can be explained as folks rolling up, but those trades at $340 is interesting. It may mean nothing, but it might mean someone might know something. I didn't notice it until after the close, but I'll buy 1 Monday just for the hell of it.

I'm not selling my lotto play, just taking a flyer for $150 because sometimes you just have to say **** it. If it pays, then my lotto play will print cash. I fully expect the $340 to go to zero but...

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