5Amp said:

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I followed Michael Burry and bought some NVDA puts @ $140 March 2026.

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He's way smarter than I'll ever be but I think $AMD would be a better short

Interesting article on the "Palantir stock cult," the true believers who sunk their life savings into PLTR and are now multimillionaires.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/they-bet-everything-on-palantir-and-became-millionaires-inside-the-markets-ultimate-cult-stock-9e6ebb91

refusing to sell any PLTR to pay for MarketWatch so https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025112556/they-bet-everything-on-palantir-and-became-millionaires-inside-the-markets-ultimate-cult-stock

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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This seems incredibly risky if you ask me.

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It's a risk defined play with max loss being premium paid. Nothing risky about it.

Incredibly Risky would be shorting shares with improper position sizing, no stop, and not accepting being wrong on the trade leading to blow up.

El_duderino said:

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It's a risk defined play with max loss being premium paid. Nothing risky about it.

Risky would be shorting shares with improper position sizing, no stop, and not accepting being wrong on the trade leading to blow up.

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Well put…pun intended

Is anyone picking up $USAR way down here or is it still headed south?

So how is Softbank going to fund stargate as promised when their stock is down 48% off it's highs from less than a month ago and back under it's 2021 high?

TSSI

EliteZags said:

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refusing to sell any PLTR to pay for MarketWatch so https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025112556/they-bet-everything-on-palantir-and-became-millionaires-inside-the-markets-ultimate-cult-stock

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I love Palantir and it's my third largest position in my private brokerage

but to take every dime one has in retirement savings and bet it all on one company is insane

it paid off for them- but how did that philosophy work out for GAMESTOP hodlers?

FireAg said:

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Market happy yesterday, and roaring again today…

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On low volume with MM's and institutions largely absent. Typical for Thanksgiving week. My bias is neutral from being firmly down. Market would have to avoid the post-holiday retail FOMO slamdown trap next week for me to default to significant new highs.

Tried to buy ODD a few days ago but a pop up from Charles Schwab indicated it wasn't available through an electronic (internet) purchase. Was going to call in today but tried one more time. It actually went through.

Well that sucks.

Think I am going watch from the sidelines for a couple of months.

Dale Earnhardts Stache said:

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BREAKING: Hedge funds recorded their largest 2-day net purchase of US equities since May on November 21st and 24th.

This also marked one of the biggest 2-day buying periods over the last 2 years.

Single stocks and macro products, such as index futures and ETFs, reflected 56%… pic.twitter.com/6nqdTGfMSS

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 26, 2025

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"Hedge funds are aggressively buying the dip."

Somebody always knows something.

He's long LULU and a few others

Dale Earnhardts Stache said:

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BREAKING: Hedge funds recorded their largest 2-day net purchase of US equities since May on November 21st and 24th.

This also marked one of the biggest 2-day buying periods over the last 2 years.

Single stocks and macro products, such as index futures and ETFs, reflected 56%… pic.twitter.com/6nqdTGfMSS

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 26, 2025

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My timing the market is impeccable

I'm assuming the tariffs wasn't the cause for that dip but just the excuse to dip?

There's trillions of dollars at risk in the market.

If technical indicators with any kind of prediction success existed for a major market drawback, you'd see massive selling from the major firms long before you'd have a chance to get out.

Their computing power, algos and analysis is always going to be better than yours. Always.

flashplayer said:

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I won't pretend to know what is going to happen. Markets don't act logically. For me the only stock history that's really relevant is the 1990s to present since the computer technology revolution. World events from the 1920s - 1980s were so different than modern times and information moved so much slower (and laws were so much looser, world financial picture was incredibly different) that it's useless to look at other than understanding what could happen in a worst case macro scenario.

That said, it's not like the predictions of a big drawdown are silly, because a roughly 50% drawdown did happen twice in the last 25 years. So when people bring up that possibility I don't take it as lightly as it may appear in my posts and there is a chance that could happen.

But I also know I can't guess when it is happening and I don't think there will be any obvious technical signal either. The other truth about recent history is that we come out of drawdowns and seem to do pretty well afterwards if your time horizon is longer than 10 years. And since mine is, and I only do some swing trading to try and gain a little extra, I am not sweating anything right now.

I think it is equally risky being all cash right now as it is being all in. I am about 20% cash and that is even a little past my comfort level with the volatility right now (wish I had stayed closer to 33%).

If I had everything figured out I wouldn't be posting on this forum with you fine people. I do enjoy reading what everyone else is doing even when we don't see things the same. That's the beauty of this place, and I wish more people would see it that way instead of taking offense to any of the joshing that takes place from time to time. I am thankful for all who contribute information and their two cents to this thread, you collectively have made a positive impact on me.

Happy Thanksgiving B&I contributors and lurkers. God bless every one of you.

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Does that 20% cash position mean just cash or are you including bonds too?

I'm about 27% cash right now but also have an 18% position in broad market bonds, like AGG. Bonds have been solid, about 6.8% YTD

The other 55% is in mostly stocks and little crypto

Okay, new to this board and have never done anything but 401k mutual funds sitting and holding. Just received a decent chunk of cash and need to put it to work. Let's just say I went from 10% cash vs IRA/401 to now 70% cash

Wife and I plan on being retired by Jan 2030 and will need 5 year bridge until she is 62. I will be 62 in '31.

Only debt is mortgage that is at 2.75 and paid off in '33.

I feel like we will be buying into the market at a premium right now, and based on what little I've read here and in other places there is a decent chance for a bubble pop before retirement in four years.

Also, I'm thinking whatever I do there needs to be enough income post 4 years to cover living expenses without drawing on principle much if at all during the bridge years.

With that as background, I will put 15% of cash into gov money for emergency fund no matter which direction I go.

Of the remaining cash I am thinking of this strategy: put 50% of the remaining in a fairly defensive portfolio with significant dividend potential to rollover for 4 years at probably 4-7% growth (gains plus rolled over dividends) but with a much lower crash dip at about 10-15%, the added positive of this strategy would be the ability to use the dividends post retirement for expenses during bridge years.

With the next 50% of the investable money, I was thinking of putting it in layered 1,2,3 year MGYAs at 5-6% to use post crash so we can buy low and during any bounce.

There are so many variables I'm kind of spinning my wheels at this point. For instance, if the crash happens do you switch your existing portfolio from dividend to more aggressive plays that are good deals and dividend cash be damned.

My questions:

1. What are the flaws in this strategy, what would you recommend to do different?

2. If a fund to buy post crash seems reasonable, are there better ways to keep it semi-liquid and get a better return than MYGAs or gov money (I'm assuming more rate cuts are coming).


Excited to have you guys pick this apart.

techno-ag said:

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Let me introduce you to WWR.

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Better when I get the inside joke, I guess. Everyone else thought it was funny so blue star for you.

Stressboy said:

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techno-ag said:

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Let me introduce you to WWR.

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Better when I get the inside joke, I guess. Everyone else thought it was funny so blue star for you.

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Sorry. Winky means probably don't buy. But if you want to be in it with the rest of us, pick up 1000 shares and hold on. We're all gonna be rich.