ag94whoop said:

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So based on those markers, a range of $82k-$95k would be the expected bounce ….
Then the question is what strategy do I take to pick the correct exit point to minimize loss, or would it be better if I scale out of position starting at minimum bounce?

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Let's wait and see how the bounce takes shape. Once we get a structure, I can better assess targets. Right now its both guessing when a bottom happens and guessing when a B wave bounce happens and how it looks.

My favorite comment ever about B waves.. "B waves are like throwing jello for distance".

Perfect tick for the 100% extension. Could be a bottom maybe. Won't need until we see if it reacts upward.

Sub 63

There are still people who use BTC for purchases and transactions. It has use other than a speculative Ponzi scheme.

GeorgiAg said:

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There are still people who use BTC for purchases and transactions. It has use other than a speculative Ponzi scheme.

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I know you're being tongue in cheek, but does it matter to those folks if Bitcoin is priced at 1$ or 100000$?

This at least attempts a value projection without pulling a correlation to BTC

On a pure technical basis, ETH could still retrace to $1,800, or even $1,400. That risk is real.
But on fundamentals: usage, settlement value & strategic relevance, ETH remains materially undervalued. A price nearer $8K would be far more consistent with its intrinsic value.

— William Mougayar (@wmougayar) February 5, 2026

Sure. https://t.co/QoncoifNfZ

— William Mougayar (@wmougayar) February 5, 2026

northeastag said:

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GeorgiAg said:

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There are still people who use BTC for purchases and transactions. It has use other than a speculative Ponzi scheme.

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I know you're being tongue in cheek, but does it matter to those folks if Bitcoin is priced at 1$ or 100000$?

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no, but not with this volatility.

HA what your thoughts on btc getting to the 200 wma?

Yukon Cornelius said:

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I really don't think there's much use case for bitcoin. It's pure speculation. It's possible the market at large has sniffed that out and everything else for the meantime is collateral damage.

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Weren't you one of the Bitcoin bros telling people they'd own bitcoin at the price they deserve?


What changed from your bullish outlook?

Not me. I've been saying I thibk long term Bitcoin is bearish. I do think we have one more good pump left before the next halving.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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HA what your thoughts on btc getting to the 200 wma?

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I have no idea. Like I said above, predicting this bounce is like throwing jello for distance. Below is a general base case. Not the trajectory, just a simple outline. Could be WAY off. And for all we know, low might not be in.

I'll repeat again too, 2021 was a BEAR BOUNCE that made a new high. That is entirely possible. Probable? No. But possible. It's going to take a while to confirm a low and even longer to form targets.

I feel like this dumping is reinforcing the four year cycle meme. I suspect we hit ATH again 4-6 months prior to the next halving in 2028

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Not me. I've been saying I thibk long term Bitcoin is bearish. I do think we have one more good pump left before the next halving.

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Didn't you say you had some you wouldn't sell for 20 years?

Yes. I could be wrong so I'll keep some for my kids to decide what to do with it.

What you buying? Btc,ibit,MSTR?

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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Doubling my DCA. I expect anything I can buy between here and $50k to 3-4x over the next 3 years.

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Curious why you think that is likely.

bmks270 said:

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@NFLPlayerProps said:

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Doubling my DCA. I expect anything I can buy between here and $50k to 3-4x over the next 3 years.

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Curious why you think that is likely.

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Same.

Obviously can't speak for him but probably because we are completing the fourth cycle to a T again. 22' was brutal too. Dropped to 16k. Everyone saying btc is going to zero and it's all over. Nearly 7-8x from there.

Once the flush out is over and yesterday volume might indicate the capitulation dump, the halving is going to be front ran.

Hey, to be fair, I haven't touched my coinbase account since ATHs. Riding it out to hell (probably) or high water (at least my life insurance would kick in).

If I remember correctly wash trading isn't illegal with btc/crypto yet

I'm waiting until Heineken releases the technical bat signal that the carnage is likely over.

Rounded out my targeted canton bag total this morning.

I'm debating selling more btc/eth for more of it.

We will see.

The first 4 months of this bear market are tracking the 2021-2022 start almost perfectly in timing and percentage terms. If the pattern continues exactly, were due for a relief rally soon, followed by a slower grind lower into late 2026.

edit: wrong thread

Bitcoin approaching resistance box. Above $70k and it should attack $74k. Above that and this is more than just a 1 day bounce.

flashplayer said:

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Either that or everyone finally realizes it's digital Beanie Babies.

(Full disclosure - I get in and out of crypto, mostly to get burned because I like the glow of the fire)

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A company i use to work for in the manufactured housing and RV industry found themselves flush with millions of dollars. So they decided to invest millions on some doll, but it wasn't the beanie baby. Just the same year beanie babies blew up. Ouch. I dont recall what they did with millions worth of dolls nobody wanted

lol wtf

Yukon Cornelius said:

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lol wtf

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They were really big on "stay in your lane"...etc when I first got there. It was years later when someone admitted to me why.

I had just returned from a GM role in Phoenix when they started hitting me up about running another plant in Waxahachie.

Turned out the guy running that plant decided to buy millions in what looked like rubber carpet. Huge giant rolls of the stuff everywhere. Apparently he talked manufactured housing plants into replacing the pad that goes under carpet with this rubbery stuff that was much cheaper. It worked great until summer came and it expanded turning the carpet into rolling waves

And thats my stay in your lane story